Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2015/16


reef

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Hi,  as i see it this winter has a strong chance of being mild to very mild.  The siginificantly positive enso coupled with the positive and strong QBO signal usually combine to override other factors such as Atlantic SST's.  I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised to see the N'ly tracking jet / bartlett scenario prevail for longer periods this winter.

 

Certainly a valid threat. Winter 07 was horrid and it's the last time we saw that combination albeit i'm more optimistic this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Hello everyone, my Dad's friend works as a cleaner for the Met Office. Apparently they were shocked to see their new £100 million super computer predicted a winter similiar to 1965/1966. The Met Office weather forecasters told him not to tell anyone, as they didn't want the public finding out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Hello everyone, my Dad's friend works as a cleaner for the Met Office. Apparently they were shocked to see their new £100 million super computer predicted a winter similiar to 1965/1966. The Met Office weather forecasters told him not to tell anyone, as they didn't want the public finding out.

And was that a particularly noteworthy winter by any chance characterised by massive dumpings of the white stuff? Shame it isn't predicting another 62/63... 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=

 

 

1965-66: The second half of November saw snow in most areas. The next lot came a bit later, late January, in Eastern parts. February, the turn of the North East. April was surprising though, as heavy falls were recorded, exceptionally heavy in parts of Northern England, where up to 1 foot was found! Mid April saw more snow, with 5 inches in the South. Quite remarkable late falls, but other than that, not a spectacular winter as that of 62-63! Still regarded as snowy though I would say. 
Edited by *Sub*Zero*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Hello everyone, my Dad's friend works as a cleaner for the Met Office. Apparently they were shocked to see their new £100 million super computer predicted a winter similiar to 1965/1966. The Met Office weather forecasters told him not to tell anyone, as they didn't want the public finding out.

Now that made me chuckle!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Hello everyone, my Dad's friend works as a cleaner for the Met Office. Apparently they were shocked to see their new £100 million super computer predicted a winter similiar to 1965/1966. The Met Office weather forecasters told him not to tell anyone, as they didn't want the public finding out.

 

They forgot to set the date, it happens! Someone will correct it soon ;-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow blizzard
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire

Now that made me chuckle!

Its almost like a football transfer rumour forum... My mates dads, dogs, uncles, brother works at old trafford.....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Latest POAMA model run is staying in its firm track since summer. it is also really trying to penetrate that lower pressure into Europe. biggrin.png

 

geopht-in-500.pngmslp-in-slp.pngtsaira-in-t2m.pngsnowfall-in-snow.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Latest POAMA model run is staying in its firm track since summer. it is also really trying to penetrate that lower pressure into Europe. biggrin.png

 

geopht-in-500.pngmslp-in-slp.pngtsaira-in-t2m.pngsnowfall-in-snow.png

 

Certainly very easy on the eye. I'd prefer any -NAO to be centred slightly further east but hey, I'm splitting hairs there.

 

Quite a similar pattern emerging amongst many of the long range models with a mean above average height signal evident around the N Atlantic sector- I await the update to the Glosea model.

 

Out of curiosity, what has previous reliability of the model you've posted above been like?

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Latest POAMA model run is staying in its firm track since summer. it is also really trying to penetrate that lower pressure into Europe. biggrin.png

 

geopht-in-500.pngmslp-in-slp.pngtsaira-in-t2m.pngsnowfall-in-snow.png

 

I would take that pattern over the current CFSv2 model run for Winter!

Edited by Don
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I would take that pattern over the current CFSv2 model run for Winter!

 

It has its moments

 

post-10987-0-19730000-1444238947_thumb.p post-10987-0-44152200-1444239286_thumb.p

 

The amount of blocked runs has seemingly increased over the past few days so should this continue, expect the average anomalies (I expect you're looking at NOAA) to slowly begin to reflect this

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

of coarse not a direct precurser of a cold winter but add the enso and cooler alantic might work in favour for the snow seekers in the uk.

post-9143-0-01743300-1444239753_thumb.jp

post-9143-0-11528100-1444239764.gif

 

nice drop in the sfi could this also aid less energy for the polar vortex.

and also increase our chances of a more southerly tracking jet stream

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

It has its moments

 

attachicon.gifcold1.png attachicon.gifblocking.png

 

The amount of blocked runs has seemingly increased over the past few days so should this continue, expect the average anomalies (I expect you're looking at NOAA) to slowly begin to reflect this

 

Yes I was looking at NOAA.  Early days but hopefully the trend of blocked runs will continue and be reflected in the average anomalies.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Weather Web TV are going for a mild, stormy winter, but their latest video suggests that they may have to adjust their temperature forecast as an unexpected  real taste of Autumn, heads in next week from the east. :cold: :cold: :cold:http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Weather Web TV are going for a mild, stormy winter, but their latest video suggests that they may have to adjust their temperature forecast as an unexpected  real taste of Autumn, heads in next week from the east. :cold: :cold: :cold:http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

I really enjoy Simon Keeling's video's and work, although there was one thing that confused me about his original Winter thoughts. He frequently mentioned that whilst he believed a milder than average Winter was coming, he was adamant that most places including the South would see more snow totals and more days of snow falling than last Winter; which really did confuse me because last Winter's temperature CET was between -0.5 and +0.5'C (can't remember what exactly) and of course this means it was pretty much average? In other words I'm not sure why a milder Winter this year would lead to more snow totals than the average Winter of last year.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

I really enjoy Simon Keeling's video's and work, although there was one thing that confused me about his original Winter thoughts. He frequently mentioned that whilst he believed a milder than average Winter was coming, he was adamant that most places including the South would see more snow totals and more days of snow falling than last Winter; which really did confuse me because last Winter's temperature CET was between -0.5 and +0.5'C (can't remember what exactly) and of course this means it was pretty much average? In other words I'm not sure why a milder Winter this year would lead to more snow totals than the average Winter of last year.

 

I like the presentation of his videos too, but was also confused by the increase in snow days. His October forecast is already looking in doubt should the cold weather materialize next week, will he have to update his mild winter forecast to a colder one?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

of coarse not a direct precurser of a cold winter but add the enso and cooler alantic might work in favour for the snow seekers in the uk.

attachicon.gifoct5_2015_disk.jpg

attachicon.gifsolarcycle24.gif

 

nice drop in the sfi could this also aid less energy for the polar vortex.

and also increase our chances of a more southerly tracking jet stream

 

 

I would have thought we need an increase in solar activity, generally a -QBO favours colder winters but mostly in solar minimum, see the chart in chionomaniac's post in the strat thread, correct me if ive got the wrong end of the stick but in a +QBO we really need high solar activity, even moderate wont usually suffice wrt SSW's, not sure if the theory works the same for smaller warmings that don't quite meet the SSW threshold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

This year seems a little remonissent of 1986,a cool summer,nice but cool September and into October,now wet.If we are to follow that pattern expect a wet November and December followed by a January 1987,who knows the winter some are all wishing for may come after all unlike 1987's' almost there' .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The year so far has been very very average, in terms of rainfall, sunshine and temperatures, with no extremes at all, not many years follows such an average pattern..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow blizzard
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire

Morning all... Things are looking nice and chilly next week... Hoping we might see some ground and maybe even air frosts here on the east coast!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

The year so far has been very very average, in terms of rainfall, sunshine and temperatures, with no extremes at all, not many years follows such an average pattern..

Heavens above Damian, are you implying that average could be the form horse.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

It has its moments

 

attachicon.gifcold1.png attachicon.gifblocking.png

 

The amount of blocked runs has seemingly increased over the past few days so should this continue, expect the average anomalies (I expect you're looking at NOAA) to slowly begin to reflect this

It's a pretty poor tool for long range forecasting, sure it has its moments more notably March 2013 but on the whole it's record isn't one to inspire me. Then again apart from the GLOSEA model which one does.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

The year so far has been very very average, in terms of rainfall, sunshine and temperatures, with no extremes at all, not many years follows such an average pattern..

 

Indeed.  I would imagine that winter will include a few cold spells, many average spells and some mild interludes too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Indeed.  I would imagine that winter will include a few cold spells, many average spells and some mild interludes too.

I applaud you for the risk you took with that statement, truly going right out on a limb.

Your right though. Last winter was pretty normal and this one could be.

If we can't get a stunning winter then I'd prefer a winter like 06 as second preference. Tonnes of frost, dry, no real mild spell.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Accuweather have updated their US winter forecast with EL Nino forcings prevalent...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-forecast-2015-2016-mild-northeast-california-rain/52732989

 

These predictions seem to indicate high pressure off the Atlantic coast with low pressure to the South of the High pressure belt with a strong Southerly jet, typical El Nino stuff.

 

How this impacts the UK is difficult, but a strong Southerly jet and higher pressure in the Atlantic can only be a good thing. My confidence in a markedly colder than average Winter is increasing.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...