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Winter 2015/16

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It's that time of the year again as we reach the second month of Autumn and thoughts start to turn to winter.

 

Will it be another 1962/63 or 1988/89? How influential will El Nino and the cold anomaly in the Northern Atlantic be?

 

Either way this is the place to talk about it.

 

Whatever your preference, happy hunting :)

 

 

 

 

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There have been a few stabs at predicting the upcoming winter weather and they are a mixed bag as usual. Stormy and mild seems to be the most popular, with things getting less stormy from January onwards. I'm hoping for a colder one as the last two winters in London have be mild and snowless. However, the only guarantee this winter is that Madden will be forecasting a cold one. :fool:

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Hoping for a cold one, lots of snow and ice :)

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If we have an El Niño Modoki, the posibility of a cool winter rise, currently nothing is played, with a positive QBO since last August, and low solar activity or in any case that declining.

Prediction is difficult, the models predict a mild winter but on the other hand indices going to make a winter as two parts to me. November & December may be mild months, January and February might be colder.

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February 1998 please.

 

You mean 1947, right? :D

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We have had some very cold months in the past 5 years or so, however not really in Jan - this is when temperatures could really be low with the perfect set up.  Imagine what March 2013s set up in January would bring!!!

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Hopefully winter will have a bit for everyone!My ideal winter would be mild November, cold December and January then mild again hopefully with plenty of snow in December leading up to Christmas if not January will be fineâ„ï¸! Fingers are crossed

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What has stood out for me of late is benign Atlantic and continuance of above average upper heights towards Greenland.

If this continues into Winter then it could be a cold one.

With a super strong El Nino and super cool N Atlantic it will be interesting how it plays out.

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What has stood out for me of late is benign Atlantic and continuance of above average upper heights towards Greenland.

If this continues into Winter then it could be a cold one.

With a super strong El Nino and super cool N Atlantic it will be interesting how it plays out.

 

A strong El Niño if he isn't Modoki doesn't seem good for a cool winter. 

About the SST in N Atlantic i don't think that's have big impact for winter 

 

hiver_clip_image011.gif

 

a=NAO-

b=NAO+

anomnight.9.28.2015.gif

 

 

American east coast needs to be in negative anomaly.

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the good news is that the long range modelling goes for blocking in november and february this morning.....take a snapshot of those chart though folks as it will have probably changed by tomorrow morning  :whistling:

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The last issue of UK Met model output available to us is below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

I have seen somewhere what may be there interpretation of this in their briefing to major users of their seasonal forecasts, not sure where that is on the forum?

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UK Met going for a colder than average winter due to blocking to the north. Good enough for me. Please could someone post the chart.

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I gave the link to the series of charts in my post aboveMPG?

Not sure that is as definite as you seem to suggest though?

 

deleted as its last year!

turned out about correct as well

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Here are the 2m temperature probability maps.

 

BnBEi1K.png

 

It's a weak signal, and seems generally due to the cold pool in the N. Atlantic. 

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The more knowledgible on here always say siberian snow can (not will) be an indicator and assist with the chance of a colder winter for Europe - especially if early snow cover in Western Siberia happens.

 

Well looking at the forecast, Western Siberia is going to get nailed with a snow storm early next week - and has already built up some good early cover this year - I'm sure Gav Ps update this weekend will cover this. Can't post pictures sorry!!

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September's update from JAMSTEC shows a colder than normal winter (air temp anomaly)

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

Every update from JAMSTEC for winter going back to June has shown a colder than average winter (air temp anomaly)

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1jun2015.giftemp2.glob.DJF2016.1jul2015.giftemp2.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

 

If nothing else its consistent

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September's update from JAMSTEC shows a colder than normal winter (air temp anomaly)

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

Every update from JAMSTEC for winter going back to June has shown a colder than average winter (air temp anomaly)

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1jun2015.giftemp2.glob.DJF2016.1jul2015.giftemp2.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

 

If nothing else its consistent

 

Right up until November when it will revert back to mild. :D

 

Tough to call this year. While a lot is being said about the NATL cold anomaly, the other background indicators don't look that favourable to me: powerful El Nino, Westerly QBO, weakish solar activity but still a way from minimum. Who knows?

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Here are the differences between regular El Niño and El Niño Modoki

 

averagetempcomparison1.png

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I gave the link to the series of charts in my post aboveMPG?

Not sure that is as definite as you seem to suggest though?

 

deleted as its last year!

turned out about correct as well

Sorry cant find the chart. Its here on this video - at 17mins 55 Seconds.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php

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A strong El Niño if he isn't Modoki doesn't seem good for a cool winter. 

About the SST in N Atlantic i don't think that's have big impact for winter 

 

hiver_clip_image011.gif

 

a=NAO-

b=NAO+

anomnight.9.28.2015.gif

 

 

American east coast needs to be in negative anomaly.

Julo,

 

I wasn't saying that a strong el-nino and well below N Atlantic SST's would bring a colder Winter to Western Europe, merely that it would be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

With regards the last METO update and the Jamstec update, looks good, but that could just be the below average SST's getting picked up.

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Glad this is back and was wondering when the thread was going to go live  :D  As always, hoping for 3 months of cold and snow but one can only dream of that scenario! Personally, I think it might be quite a dry winter with plenty of hard frosts, but anything has to be better the last couple which have been a bit of let down. 

 

Fingers crossed for a good'en.  :friends:  :cold:

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From a cold and snow perspective, I don't understand why so many people hated last winter. It was very average temperature-wise - mixed mild and cold spells and for me had snow in all three winter months, plus March as well and a few good frosts. Maybe in the SE it was poor for snow, but certainly not further north.

ha, couldn't get a more IMBY post!

 

No falling snow (ok sletty wet flakes with rain mixed in) and lying snow in North Somerset last winter except on the Mendip hills.

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Here are the differences between regular El Niño and El Niño Modoki

 

averagetempcomparison1.png

 

Interesting comparison between 'normal' and 'Modoki' El-Nino temperature differences. In our backyard, although due to it's position on the pictures and it's size, the UK doesn't seem to be much different (except for Ireland maybe). Mainland Europe though shows a massive difference, being much warmer in Modoki than normal El-Nino events. Doesn't that go against what I've been hearing i.e. that A Modoki El-Nino is more favorable for a cold winter? Or are we just playing with very small datasets, too small to really determine if trends really exist?

 

ha, couldn't get a more IMBY post!

 

No falling snow (ok sletty wet flakes with rain mixed in) and lying snow in North Somerset last winter except on the Mendip hills.

 

Even many areas much further north weren't great for snow either, we had a fairly dry and snow-less winter because everything was coming in from a Westerly direction.

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