Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

[MR EXTREMES]

Southern Ireland or southwest england /Biscay area would suggest the most logical areas never really making inroads to much after all its common factor in el Nino especially autumn during time period where the northern hemisphere is switching up a gear.

The dafs will want to keep there self's hidden some from frosts very likely during settled spells especially away from the coast where a breeze persists.

Central swathe of the UK or bar the nw with more sw flow has more influence with weather fronts flirting.

But the models are not showing a blow torch long drawn sw flow more or an easterly influence over the mid to later part of this week as we move forward the likely situation would be that ex hurricane is like to continue to cause massive swings in models out puts as we seen for awhile.

Not really a full on Atlantic onslaught very nice to see that north eastern Europe and into eastern Europe getting some pretty cold weather all nice to see.

But over all pretty standard el Nino autumn so far apart from France and the med where its been certainly different to last autumn.

This suggests to me that the models are more likely to throw out wild swings but being a el Nino year is be in the mind set that systems moving from west to east or sw up into the Scandinavia area so easily,

won't be a common feature not at this point in time anyway.

[MR EXTREMES]

And I apologize for spelling or wrong words in my post!.

glitchy phone with mind of its own

Edited October 6, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly this morning again makes more of the upper trough than the GEFs although in the ext period although it does retreat but it does swither around with it during D10-15 so confidence not that high on the evolution detail at the moment.

Edited October 6, 2015 by knocker

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Given that Joaquin could end up in Biscay, could it develop into something nasty, as seen here?:

 

 

We know what happened on that day   and like now, the storm contained some very warm air, during daytime on 16th the temp made 20C here.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Wildswimmer Pete

[johnholmes]

Given that Joaquin could end up in Biscay, could it develop into something nasty, as seen here?:

 

Rrea00119871016.gif

 

We know what happened on that day   and like now, the storm contained some very warm air, during daytime on 16th the temp made 20C here.

 

The answer is almost certainly no. The upper pattern and the sequence of development of the two systems is quite different.

[Gael_Force]

Given that Joaquin could end up in Biscay, could it develop into something nasty, as seen here?:

 

Rrea00119871016.gif

 

We know what happened on that day   and like now, the storm contained some very warm air, during daytime on 16th the temp made 20C here.

Seems to be the most difficult to track hurricane ever. Is that because the upper atmosphere is more complicated than usual or is it some other aspect of this particular storm?

[stevofunnelcl]

NHC update now mentions as an ex-tropical storm, it'll have gale to storm force winds

The wind field expands outwards, so everything is not tightly packed around the centre as it is with hurricanes

 

It was March a few years ago when a storm took a similar track from south-west Ireland down to Bay of Biscay

Sure it missed most of the Uk, but south-west england took a battering, i remember it well

[Frosty.]

Well what a fantastic end to the Gfs 6z op run this morning which shows an Arctic blast with a rasping Northerly   and for some areas a risk of snow with at least a few very frosty nights for the time of year. It's not the first time the gfs has showed a cold blast later in october and hopefully there will continue to be signs of a cold unsettled spell during the second half of this month.  

[carinthian]

Looks like a firming up the position of this weekends ex hurricane to align up to the west of Ireland  by Sunday morning ( 50N/11W)  entering the baroclinic zone and an area of much cooler sea temps than average the storm should gradually lose its energy. Still some strong winds to affect western fringes of the British Isles. I go increasingly for a track SE into Biscay and France after Sunday ( say 60/40 ) chance now.

 C

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, Nice to 'see' -10c uppers clip the far North towards the end of the 6z run.

[johnholmes]

Seems to be the most difficult to track hurricane ever. Is that because the upper atmosphere is more complicated than usual or is it some other aspect of this particular storm?

 

Tropical Storms/Hurricanes that get into he N Atlantic have enormous amounts of heat and moisture in them. Far more than the usual N Atlantic weather systems. This makes the hugely complex meteorology even more complex and difficult to handle. So this one is little different, if at all, from similar disturbances than get caught up in the Atlantic weather patterns.

[Sparkiee storm]

I agree, great to see some winter charts appearing, early too

[BlueHedgehog074]

Indeed. To see that -10 850 hPa temperature line reaching the far North of Scotland for October is really amazing (nice Fantasy Island chart to stumble across on my Birthday). Even though there's probably been model runs in the past that have painted a similar scenario for October, for cold weather enthusiasts it's still brill to see.

One of those charts to savour while it lasts as it could disappear, like magic, on the next run. (Admittedly, though, would love to see a repeat of October 2008 with an early wintry outbreak with snowflakes knocking on all the snowy weather fans' doors).

Edited October 6, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[knocker]

5 October 2015 - What influence might ex-Hurricane Joaquin have on the UK's weather this week? We take a look at the forecast for this week.

 

 

Towards next weekend, this low pressure centre will approach the west of the UK but there is some uncertainty as to what impacts, if any, this system will have on the UK as it is still some way off.

 

A ridge of high pressure will bring fine conditions for many on Thursday and Friday and as high pressure builds from Scandinavia over the weekend this looks like holding back any weather systems approaching from the Atlantic. In fact many places will see fine weather and this means that any impacts from ex-Hurricane Joaquin are likely to be limited to the far west of the UK.

 

Deputy Chief Meteorologist Laura Paterson said "the forecast is for ex-Hurricane Joaquin to stay away from mainland UK. There is some uncertainty, but the depression is likely to either come to a halt to the southwest of Ireland and weaken, or track to the south of the country and into the Continent.

 

The south and southwestern parts of the UK may see increased winds with a small chance of gales in exposed areas."

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/ex-hurricaneJoaquin?WT.mc_id=Twitter_News_Pressrelease

[Mucka]

Well what a fantastic end to the Gfs 6z op run this morning which shows an Arctic blast with a rasping Northerly   and for some areas a risk of snow with at least a few very frosty nights for the time of year. It's not the first time the gfs has showed a cold blast later in october and hopefully there will continue to be signs of a cold unsettled spell during the second half of this month.  

 

 

That seems to be the general signal for FI Frosty.

Pressure lowers over Scandinavia and Northwest Europe and builds in the Atlantic with a displaced AH.

Could be a chilly final week or so of October but obviously a long way out.

The only reason I give it any credence is because there is pretty much zero sign of typical autumnal zonal conditions throughout the ensembles.

[Man With Beard]

Given that Joaquin could end up in Biscay, could it develop into something nasty, as seen here?:

 

Rrea00119871016.gif

 

We know what happened on that day   and like now, the storm contained some very warm air, during daytime on 16th the temp made 20C here.

Jet stream not really favourable to whip this one up, I'd say

[knocker]

Streuth!! Nearly an October Plume

 

Chart weatherbell

Edited October 6, 2015 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

Streuth!! Nearly an October Plume

 

Chart weatherbell

That's not surprising considering ex hurricane to our west drawing up warmth not uncommon to get this then a flip to colder conditions as frosty indicated earlier.

But the arctic profile still looking good garden path or road to winter we will soon see once ex hurricane has slung it s hook.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm we are still struggling to get a foothold on Joaquin, 12 hours ago the ECM solution this morning was an outlier given other model output, now

ECM

Still taking it towards Iberia

 

GEM agrees

 

UKMO has it a little further north but it has a similar idea.

 

The GFS still has the low near Ireland at this time frame with a sharpening upper trough disrupting against the heights over Scandinavia

 

This storm is still playing havoc with the models in respect to the 4-6 day range. It still looks likely that high pressure will become more influential from both the north east and eventually the south west as a ridge builds in behind this upper trough. It could also get quite chilly at times too.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

That's not surprising considering ex hurricane to our west drawing up warmth not uncommon to get this then a flip to colder conditions as frosty indicated earlier.

But the arctic profile still looking good garden path or road to winter we will soon see once ex hurricane has slung it s hook.

 

Good to see the warm air is hanging around for12 days then. Do the dafs a world of good.

Edited October 6, 2015 by knocker

[Liam J]

Good to see the warm air is hanging around for12 days then. Do the dafs a world of good.

Doesn't look all that warm on this evenings ECM output as some cooler air gets brought in from the east into next week. 

 

[knocker]

Right back to the real world. Tonight's GEFS anomalies are continuing the scenario of HP ridging from the SW for the whole period. On this evidence the surface analysis would be one of of sustained HP with temps a tad below average becoming average.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited October 6, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

It looks increasingly chilly next week according to the Gfs / Ecm 12z op runs, they are both showing a blocking anticyclone to the E/NE of the uk in control next week with a rather cold and brisk Easterly airflow covering the uk with max temps pegged back to 11/12c and cold enough overnight for slight frosts, especially in parts of the north and west so another fine spell for many but a risk of showers later next week across eastern coastal areas. Looking further ahead, it's been great to see wintry charts popping up in the outlook for later in october, e.g on today's 6z and I hope it's a sign of things to come later in the month, it would be a real bonus to have an arctic shot in october..fingers crossed.

[stevofunnelcl]

well you never turn your back on a hurricane

Still holding strength as it races north-east towards cold waters

 

Looking at the track, i fail to see how this will not effect some parts of the Uk, in some way

 

https://stormpulse.com/hurricane-joaquin/

[knocker]

The main difference between the GEFS and ecm is the treatment of the trough with the latter giving it more influence between the two HP areas so a beady needs to be kept on that.