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Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

 

Not sure about "the dafs" to be honest.

 

The resolution to the possible track of ex-Hurricane Joaquin remains a key element to the synoptic development in the medium term but general agreement now emerging on a more S'ly track.

 

The Op models eventually stall ex-Joaquin out by the Azores where it fills before being re-invigorated (warm water ?) and moving closer to Iberia as part of an overall trough in the western Med which supports HP over Scandinavia albeit with slightly different orientation (more of an E'ly with GFS)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015100500/gfs-0-144.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015100500/gem-0-144.png?00

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015100500/ECM1-144.GIF?05-1

 

Pressure rises behind the ex-hurricane but GFS, GEM and ECM all offer differing evolutions. GEM sends the HP north and NE to effectively replace the previous Scandinavian HP while ECM develops a ridge between the two HP cells which by T+240 is weakening.

 

GFS offers a more synoptically interesting path as the Scandinavian ridge dominates for a few days before a new Atlantic HP sets up and the trough comes down into Scandinavia leaving the British Isles exposed to a cool (or even cold) N'ly.

 

Plenty of options once ex-Joaquin has passed through. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Models, particularly GFS, have been wobbling around with the track of ex- Hurricane Joaquin.

 

Yesterday, GFS operationals brought the extratropical low NE towards Ireland by next Saturday then north towards Iceland next Sunday.

 

12z Sat 10th from 12z GFS on Sunday

post-1052-0-08345400-1444032993_thumb.pn

 

Today, it now follows a much more southerly route, as ECMWF deter. has been hinting all along, west of Iberia next Saturday before slowly moving in across Iberia next week. ECMWF deter, incidently, called it right on Joaquin not making USA landfall, while the other models and even the ECM ensemble majority had it make landfall.

 

12z Sat 10th from 00z GFS today

post-1052-0-69044000-1444033255_thumb.pn

 

Persistent blocking upper ridge over Scandinavia appears to be playing its part in making the models 'wobble', as the Atlantic upper trough is forced to disrupt rather than advance east.

 

Upside for us, is that after a few days of unsettled weather this week, it turns settled again as high pressure returns, perhaps for a while.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+384hrs with Low pressure to the East and a rasping Northerly flow over the North Sea and the UK with cold weather with wintry showers across the North and East.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif

 

Contrastingly, the best chart of the day today is the GEM 228hr one which highlights another sustained fine spell with a blocking High across the North of the UK with much if not all of the UK fine and dry once more.

 

This is something I've been meaning to ask for a while I hope you don't mind

 

Are you going to be keeping the best and worst charts going during winter?

 

Obviously come winter the vast majority on here will be hunting cold and for them the worst chart showing cold and potential snowy conditions would be the best chart a mild southerly or southwesterly would the worst

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

It's the best chart of the day in my opinion, would love a rasping Northerly! :cold:  :D

 

It is still there on the 06Z and there may even be a hint of that set up in the ECM ensemble mean for similar timescale.

 

gfs-0-324_rto2.png   ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500meanec-ens_millikort_mslpmean_t850mean_t850s

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

It's the best chart of the day in my opinion, would love a rasping Northerly! :cold:  :D

 

It's back on the 06z too:

 

gfsnh-0-336.png?6

 

Wishbone by the look of the precip charts so would be dry for the majority, but good news if you're sliding down an Alp and bad news if you're an impatient daffodil.  :)

 

(And yes, I know this will all be gone in 6 hours)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

However nice it is seeing some eye candy on the GFS, I think a mid/late Oct Northerly or Easterly would only bring wintery type stuff for higher ground in the North (possibly fleeting wet stuff further South) - If it was late Oct and we stared seeing charts like those at +384 on GFS this forum may get slightly busier!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hurricane Joaquin has been causing headaches for forecasters recently and sent some of the media into a frenzy with headlines like worst storms in 30+ years set to batter the uk but now it looks like a storm in a teacup as far as the uk is concerned with joaquin eventually digging south into the bay of biscay according to the bbc weather experts and it looks like the uk is on course for a settled outlook as a blocking anticyclone becomes established to the NE of the BI with a brisk chilly Easterly flow being drawn across the uk so it doesn't look like being as warm as the recent settled spell with max temps more likely to be in the low to mid teens celsius range with cold nights, especially across the north and west with slight frosts. Towards the end of the Gfs 12z it becomes more unsettled from the NW...So, the next few days look unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain, some of it heavy and thundery across the midlands / south tomorrow but the unsettled weather becomes more and more confined to the far north east by midweek with fine conditions returning to many areas but this run shows a risk of some rain in the southwest for a time next weekend but many areas look fine.

post-4783-0-94240100-1444071129_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-86826900-1444071151_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-80428900-1444071171_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-56915100-1444071194_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Hi Folks! Very interesting developments regarding ex Hurricane Joaquin . Models.... that's the gfs and ecm  show her remnants making landfall across the nation, in one shape or form during this weekend!  Its a little bit like "Pin the tail to the donkey" :closedeyes:  :rofl: Im sure this will be one of the biggest headaches this year for forecasters. Theres no done deal yet as regards this evolution, but in the minds of professional weather forecasters , there is likely to be the hint of alarm bells for the developing situation regarding this ex Hurricane......... :closedeyes:

post-6830-0-70902500-1444073857_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-94440700-1444073906_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-40739100-1444073973_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-31010500-1444074022_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

However nice it is seeing some eye candy on the GFS, I think a mid/late Oct Northerly or Easterly would only bring wintery type stuff for higher ground in the North (possibly fleeting wet stuff further South) - If it was late Oct and we stared seeing charts like those at +384 on GFS this forum may get slightly busier!!!

 

 

Don't forget that any time of wintry precipitation is extremely rare in October away from higher ground, even in the last week. I think we can be pretty sure it won't happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Don't forget that any time of wintry precipitation is extremely rare in October Winter  away from higher ground, even in the last week. I think we can be pretty sure it won't happen.

 

 Just Edited your post Scorcher hope you don't mind :D

 

 C.S

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ecmt850.144.png

 

Hmmn that is one to watch in terms of being a heavy rain threat. A fairly slow moving remnant low could be Joaquin's final act.

 

Meanwhile GFS's 12z det. keeps the remnants to the west than northwest for the most part, but trough disruption sees a secondary circulation splitting and heading SE to bother SW England for a time.

 

 

The ECM det. runs are being persistent with the theme of low heights really getting going in the vicinity of Greenland in the 7 to 10 day period, but the GFS det. runs have tended to maintain a more inconsistent area of trough activity. Not that the ECM version looks all that convincing in terms of relentless westerlies powering across the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies tonight are not in complete agreement on the evolution with ridging from the south west and low pressure over Europe. The GEfs is far more emphatic with the ridging than the ecm as the latter brings the Greenland trough more into play which is a theme it continues to develop into the ext period. So some uncertainty how this will evolve although it would all appear quite pleasant with around average temps.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

post-12275-0-68338700-1444079835_thumb.p

post-12275-0-38278800-1444079844_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

Don't forget that any time of wintry precipitation is extremely rare in October away from higher ground, even in the last week. I think we can be pretty sure it won't happen.

That last time that happened was the last week of October '08.  I was on an overnight journey to Bournemouth 30/31 October and we faced deep snow all the way down into Hampshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Well, the mystery of where ex-Joaquin wanders as it approaches western Europe next weekend continues, though 12z runs of most models nudged it further north now to arrive near Ireland by Saturday. A look at the 12z EPS postage stamps for next Saturday (t+120) has a good spread of solutions, from a deep low up near Iceland or down to the west of Iberia. Though always tend to go with the operational with its higher resolution.

 

post-1052-0-90529100-1444083555_thumb.gi

 

12z GEFS similarly all over the shop:

 

post-1052-0-76203000-1444083637_thumb.pn

 

12z UKMO and ECMWF close to SW of Ireland with the deep low at 12z Saturday, 18z GFS further SW. Updated T+120 UKMet fax west of Ireland 12z Sat

 

post-1052-0-93403300-1444084005_thumb.pn

 

Could all change again tomorrow of course ...

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Not a done deal yet with the ex-hurricane

Also reading suggestions in the latest advisory for the NHC, that it could become a powerful extra-tropical cyclone, getting some extra forcing from a baroclinic zone, which would slow down, the spin down of the wind speeds

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS has been toying with retrogressing the high and dropping a trough into Sandi in FI for some time.

This is somewhat reminiscent of November 2010 though the trough was a fair bit further West.

 

 

Rtavn3721.gif

 

Deep FI and still October but some interesting synoptic being thrown up.

Will the PV get into gear later in the month and November or will we see an early cold snap?

Currently it doesn't look as though October os likely to snap the run of below average CET months but it could all change very quickly

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick overview of the latest EC32

 

At T192 the anomaly has ridging to the south west and Scandinavia and low pressure over Europe so main surface fearure HP stretching from Scandinavia away to the SW with temps below average.

 

Fast forward a week until the 29th and little change except the trough Greenland.Iceland has become a little more active leading to a slightly sronger westerly airflow but still the UK more under the circulation from the HP to the SW. Temps still a tad below average.

 

A week later by the 27th much the same scenario except the trough is now playing a bigger role so more unsettled over the UK with systems from the west impacting particularly in the north. Temps around average.

 

From then until the 6th November, with the HP to the SW slipping south,  a much more Atlantic dominated period and quite unsettled.with depressions nipping in and temps still around average.

 

So generally a pretty good outlook until the end of the month then becoming more unsettled. Still on course for the early dafs.

 

This morning the GFS has Joaquin west of Ireland 986mb at ooz Sunday.

Chart Weatherbell

 

 

post-12275-0-87964400-1444108936_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning's GEFS anomalies continue to agree with the EC32 in the near future that there is nothing sinister lurking in the woodshed. A fact that could have also been discerned by remembering the old adage that the number of posts in here is directly proportional to the imminent onset of a northerly icy blast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

post-12275-0-80773400-1444117293_thumb.p

post-12275-0-79164400-1444117299_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Interesting in both the short term and longer as to the actual surface chart be it ex hurricane or longer term.

The link below shows NOAA idea on its track, seems a touch further south than earlier predictions

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025053.shtml?5-daynl#contents

UK Met Fax chart link below 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 was issues last evening so maybe it is a shade further north than NOAA are suggesting?

 

As to longer term then ECMWF-GFS remain at loggerheads as to the upper pattern pos 6 days with EC nearer to the NOAA 6-10 version, links below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

NOAA has been pretty consistent in its suggestion of upper air pattern evolving so I would stick with it and EC rather than GFS. However, as always when ex hurricanes are involved in the initial stages of the model run then care needs to be exercised in just how the pattern will end up.

The idea of +ve heights and possibly 500mb ridging NE of the UK does seem a reasonable pattern. This would allow the remnants of the ex storm to move either north to the west of the UK or into Biscay.

So interesting model watching at various time scales.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 6TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure areas and troughs will move NNE across the UK both today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near or just under 10000ft across the UK.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with a little rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too especially later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a continuation of the flow to be split to the North and South of the UK for the remainder of the week. The flow becomes weak next week and generally maintains a stronger arm well to the North and a smaller cut off flow near the South of the UK as a small cut off depression lies close to Southern Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather improving from the current unsettled spell as we move towards the end of the week as a ridge of High pressure crosses the UK from the West. The High pressure ridge then is shown to build strongly to the North and East of the UK as the remains of hurricane Joaquin move into the UK from the SW at the weekend, This could bring rain and strong winds across England and Wales from the weekend while Scotland could stay dry before the majority of the remainder of the run sees Low pressure remain close to the South of the UK with further rain at times in an Easterly breeze. Then at the very end of the period a ridge dries things up for most before Low pressure changes the weather again at the end of the period, this time for all with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure sits across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much less influence from ex hurricane Joaquin as it slips it South into Biscay with an easterly flow across the South the only effects likely from it. High pressure maintains a lot of dry weather across the UK for most of the run with only the far South gradually seeing a little rain at times as Low pressure edges into the South from the South later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has a unanimous theme of High pressure likely to lie close to the SW of the UK with varying degrees of influence across the UK mostly supporting a lot of dry and fine weather with any rainfall largely concentrated towards the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing over the UK for a time later this week before the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin moves first towards the NW of the UK then down across us by Day 6 gradually turning the weather unsettled with some rain at times for all and with some brisk winds for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning shows High pressure developing to the NE of the UK extending a ridge across the UK towards the end of the week as the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin approaches the Western sea areas at the weekend but holding far enough away to have little impact for the UK on this run.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the North-east later this week with some fine and settled weather for many for a time. GEM is less supportive of keeping the ex hurricane at bay as it moves it in across the UK at the weekend with wind and rain for many. The theme then for next week is a slow return to drier conditions to edge down from the North though it takes a long time to reach the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure moving to the South of the UK late this week and over the weekend with a stiffening Easterly breeze as High pressure builds to the North of the UK. This pattern is then maintained well into the start of next week with a lot of dry and chilly weather with any rain only likely in the extreme South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has the building High pressure later this week winning the day as the ex tropical feature fades into obscurity moving harmlessly to the South and NW of the UK. High pressure then builds across the UK next week before a fall of pressure from the NW threatens some rain and fresher West winds right at the end of the period though rain amounts looks small in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week once the demise and final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin is established.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.8pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.6 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts then GFS at 83.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 51.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.7 pts to 33.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models are still struggling with the track of ex hurricane Joaquín and subsequent effects such movements could have on the weather across the UK come the weekend. In the meantime the current mild and showery weather will move away East tomorrow with dry, bright but cooler weather developing later this week. As all this unfolds pressure will be building from the NE and winds switch towards an Easterly across the South. While the bias is still towards the weather staying dry over the weekend some output does show Joaquin moving into the UK airspace with some rain from it affecting the UK at least for a time. The final coming together of the models should occur over the coming days with the most likely weather next week becoming dry and bright but rather chilly in an Easterly breeze. The North will probably see lighter winds with cold nights with frost and fog patches likely but this all of course hinges on the fact that our ex tropical feature Joaquin does keep out of UK air space. Given the time of year the models could look a whole lot worse and given also that an ex tropical feature is in the mix it looks unlikely that there will be anything significantly bad weather-wise in the coming two weeks.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif

The worst and best chart of the day highlight the differences in the 4-6 day range in possibilities of weather across the UK with the worst chart going to the GEM 144hr chart which shows the remains of ex-hurricane Joaquin over Ireland with wind and unsettled rainy weather likely for all.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Contrastingly, and at the same time point ECM shows a stark difference to GEM and UKMO as by that time all trace of ex-hurricane Joaquin has vanished with a belt of High pressure across the UK giving rise to settled and fine weather with chilly air and frost and fog patches at night.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 7th 2015

Edited by Gibby
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Quite a lot of support from the 50 EPS members for a deep low (ex-Joaquin) to the west of Ireland at 00z Saturday (T+96), divergence to what happens to the low thereafter, some spin the low NE, while many take it SE towards Biscay as per GFS operational, the EC deterministic/high res looks quite different t+96-120 from many of the EPS which have a deeper low and further north in track.

 

EPS T+96

post-1052-0-97570700-1444120333_thumb.gi

 

EPS T+120

post-1052-0-81242800-1444120735_thumb.gi

 

00z GEFS mostly support the idea of a fairly deep low moving towards SW Ireland before dropping SE towards Biscay, not many swinging it NE to the west of Ireland.

 

GEFS T+96

post-1052-0-53717200-1444120693_thumb.pn

 

GEFS T+120

post-1052-0-25990700-1444120708_thumb.pn

 

Because of the ridge drifting NE over the UK later this week, models perhaps not handling too well the Altantic upper trough trying to move in from the west at the weekend, with the complication of ex-Joaquin at the base of this upper trough. The upper/sfc high eventually drifts up over Scandinavia this weekend, but the Atlantic trough is still forced to disrupt against this deep layer high and this is where the models often struggle, so changes and differences in the 500mb making all the difference to the track of ex-Joaquin. 

 

At the moment would go for the low to head towards SW Ireland before moving SE into Biscay. But could be wrong!

Edited by Nick F
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