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Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Is it my imagination or does the longer term ens output begin to resemble last autumn/early winter where the jet dived from the gricelandic trough down to our south east with blocking over n Russia and the Atlantic to our west?

 

Certainly turning a good deal colder over in Moscow during next week

 

MT8_Moskau_ens.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Daily comparison using the GFSECMUKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.

 

24 Hours Sunday (JMA)

After a sunny start for many but it will turn more cloudy as the day goes on with rain arriving in the evening across Ireland, Wales and England along with strong winds.

post-6686-0-20744400-1443881476_thumb.pn

 

48 Hours Monday (GEM)

A unsettled start to the week as a low pressure system passes through bringing more wet and windy weather to all of the UK and Ireland.

post-6686-0-64365800-1443881476_thumb.pn

 

72 Hours Tuesday (ECM)

Staying unsettled with more cloud and rain as another low pressure system passes through. The wind should ease though for most places but staying windy for the far North of Scotland and Southern parts of England and Ireland.

post-6686-0-19295400-1443881477_thumb.pn

 

96 Hours Wednesday (NAVGEM)

Drying up along Southern parts to some sunshine but the North still staying cloudy and wet. Still windy for most places.

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120 Hours Thursday (CFS)

The wind finally eases down and sunshine will be widespread across most parts. Hurricane Joaquin enters the Atlantic.

post-6686-0-19421300-1443881478_thumb.pn

 

144 Hours Friday (GFS)

There is still disagreement among the models over the path of Hurricane Joaquin but most models show it weaken as it crosses the Atlantic and taking a Southerly path which had good support from yesterday and again today.

post-6686-0-69516600-1443881478_thumb.pn

 

168 Hours Saturday (FIM)

At the moment it doesn't look like Hurricane Joaquin will hit the UK as there's good support that it will end up heading North towards Iceland.

post-6686-0-15569100-1443881479_thumb.pn

 

192 & 216 & 240 Hours Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (GFS & FIM & CFS)

Low pressure begins to lose control as high pressure begins to make a move in again so a more settled outlook for mid October at the moment.

post-6686-0-72199700-1443881479_thumb.pn post-6686-0-19379100-1443881480_thumb.pn post-6686-0-66611700-1443881480_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Quite significant northern blocking here with cold air advecting as far west as Baltic states.

disruption to PV? it does usually whirl up at this time of year.

post-19153-0-71031400-1443889394_thumb.j post-19153-0-83804300-1443889553_thumb.j

Winter is coming not as such for the UK. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

This evenings GFS run continues to show an Autumnal start to the working week, With the Ex-Hurricane taking a rather close track to the UK on Friday skimming Western Ireland. Until this feature has moved through things will & still are rather unclear as the Models continue to struggle beyond this.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

This evenings GFS run continues to show an Autumnal start to the working week, With the Ex-Hurricane taking a rather close track to the UK on Friday skimming Western Ireland. Until this feature has moved through things will & still are rather unclear as the Models continue to struggle beyond this.

Yes PM all of W.Europe looks unsettled on Monday with rain and showers moving through off the Atlantic as far south as Iberia.

 

post-2026-0-24932000-1443895677_thumb.pn

 

After that  some uncertainty on how far east the breakdown will get with the blocking to the east looking quite stubborn at the moment.

The jet seems to hit the buffers around our locale before splitting with the main thrust driving north around the top of the high next week.All eyes then on the approach of the ex tropical low later in the week.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Word of the day.. inversion.

 

Rtavn2407.gif

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Autumn is becoming more and more present. Leaves are starting to turn red, yellow and brown, and the days are getting steadily shorter. And yet, the weather has been far from autumnal, with a high pressure area bringing very calm and fine weather over the past week or so. This all is going to change in the next few days, though, as low pressure activity will become more prevalent from the west.

 

Perhaps even more interesting is that we are seeing an ex-tropical cyclone (Joaquin) appearing on the weather map of Europe, which will undoubtedly affect our weather (be it positive or negative) in about 5 days’ time. How will this system affect us, and could it even have a direct impact on the US? And how will we transition from settled to unsettled weather before ex-Joaquin moves in? Read the answers to these questions below! Of a side note, during the past few hours, this system has been nearing category 5 strength (!) with 135 knots sustained winds.

 

The end of a fine weather spell

 

As mentioned before, we are seeing the breakdown of a very persistent high pressure area present during last week. This process is already taking shape, but not very convincingly yet. Let us take a look at the current air mass satellite image combined with 500 hPa heights to get an overview of the current situation.

 

attachicon.gifEUMETRAIN_12UTC.png

Airmass satellite image overlain with 500 hPa heights (green lines) as of 12 UTC. Courtesy: EUMETSAT.

 

A first look at the current 500 hPa pattern shows a rather messy picture. The dominant 500 hPa ridge is located over Eastern Europe (near Ukraine), but this ridge does not extend very far northward. Currently, this ridge also has influence over the UK and Western Europe. On the other hand, we can also see a couple of cut-off 500 hPa troughs over the Atlantic and southern France (blue circles).

 

Finally, the most active weather is located over Scandinavia, where the Jetstream is very active. Evidence for this is that the lines of equal geopotential height are very close together there. In other words, there is a very large difference in height (or pressure) in that specific area. This becomes clearer when we look at the Jetstream analysis from Netweather:

 

attachicon.gifJEt_current.png

Jetstream analysis as of 12 UTC (Courtesy: Netweather).

 

Troughing comes flying in from the west

 

By tomorrow, the weather developments become much clearer. For the ones looking forward to some real autumnal weather, this is what would be wanted. From the west, a 500 hPa trough will drop southward, as can be seen on the GFS forecast chart below:

 

attachicon.gifJEt_current.png

GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+24h.

 

We can see the trough (expressed by the green colours, encircled in blue) digging southward over the Atlantic. On the west side of this trough, another important development is taking place, as we can see the beginnings of a 500 hPa ridge developing (orange colours pointing northward, denoted by the red line).

 

At the surface, a first small-scale low pressure area appears to be nearing the UK from the south (the 995 hPa low pressure area to the west of Normandy, France).

 

An amplified flow developing

 

If we look 2 days later (so 3 days from now), the aforementioned ridge has become much more developed, causing a very amplified pattern to develop. Amplified means the amplitude (the north-south extent) of the troughs and ridges is very high. See the image below:

 

attachicon.gifGFS_72.png

GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+72h.

 

Over the UK, a trough is present (green colours, denoted in blue), which will likely yield some very unsettled conditions over the UK on Tuesday. However, this is far from a typical westerly flow. In fact, the situation is completely blocked, as we can see a strong ridge (orange colours, red line) present over Scandinavia. This ridge makes sure the trough over the UK cannot move in over Western Europe, essentially keeping the door shut.

 

And for the very attentive people, we can see our (ex-) tropical cyclone Joaquin appearing on our map! This is the very deep low pressure area (at the surface, about 980 hPa central pressure, denoted in black) just south of Nova Scotia, US at the extreme western edge of the map.

 

Tropical trouble for the weather models

 

Tropical cyclones are notorious for causing weather models to shift dramatically with their solutions when they arrive. This is because they bring along very moist air from the tropics northward, and they are relatively small-scale systems. If these systems make a direct hit, they can be huge rainmaker. But just as often they enforce a southerly flow to their eastern side bringing very warm conditions. What will it be this time? Most likely a close call for the UK, and in the parts below I will try to find out why, by comparing the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF.

 

attachicon.gifGFS_144.gif

GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+144

 

attachicon.gifECM_144.gif

ECMWF Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+144h

 

In both situations, the extratropical remnants of Joaquin are located roughly to the west of Ireland. Comparing both models shows that there is quite some consistency about the general location where Joaquin will be. Both models show the system to the west of Iceland, the GFS being slightly further east. Will this mean that Joaquin will miss the UK? Maybe, but there are some caveats in this forecast that I would like to address:

  1. We can see that the low pressure area containing the remnants of Joaquin is modelled only a few hundreds of kilometres to the west of the UK. However, at such time ranges, models often shift with the position of such small scale features, and any shift east would bring the system over the UK.
  2. Most of the models have been swinging around quite a lot with the track of Joaquin, as only 2 days ago the general agreed track was that the system would make landfall over the US. We know what happened afterwards.

 

And yet, we can be pretty sure that Joaquin will not swing any further than the UK. This is because of the blocking ridge over Scandinavia that was already present. For illustration, we take a look at the GFS synoptic map again for 144 hours out:

 

attachicon.gifGFS_144_Joaquintrack.png

GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+144

 

Note how a track as shown by the lower black arrow would mean the system would run into a blockade (the high pressure area over Scandinavia). This is physically not possible, and that is why Joaquin will curve northward away from Europe towards Iceland.

 

How will Joaquin affect the surface weather at the UK?

 

Now we know what will roughly be the track of ex-Joaquin, can we roughly pinpoint the local weather conditions associated with this system? The answer is no, because of the proximity of the current forecasted track of Joaquin near Ireland and the possibility for shifts in the models for 6 days out. However, we can be certain that the further east you go, the less significant the impacts will be.

 

Summary

 

We are about to experience a round of real autumn-like weather. However, this will not be a typical westerly circulation type of unsettled weather, as a firm blockade (high pressure area) sets up shop over Scandinavia. Meanwhile, in this period of unsettled weather an ex-tropical cyclone is forecast to near the UK, making the situation even more interesting. It looks now that the eastern parts of the UK will be spared from the worst impacts, but there is still room for some shift in the track forecasts. Definitely an interesting week of model watching ahead!

 

Sources:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

http://www.eumetrain.org/eport.html

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

This is a brilliant post ,This is what our forum is all about ,yes some interesting weather to come ,after a very settled spell here comes autumn in all its glory .

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies tonight are featuring a Mexican standoff. Both have LP Canada/Greenland with associated trough down through the UK to general LP over Europe that even develops a closed sysrem. Blocking HP Scandinavia and height rises to the SW of the UK leaving the UK in no mans land between the two systems. How this develops rather depends on whether the Scandinavian block slips east and allows the Azores to nudge in and promote a westerly flow or hold it's ground and the UK import some colder air from Europe.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quiet in here today, though there is much to talk about with lots of uncertainty as we see a possible stand off between the atlantic and continent later next week. All models agree on a breakdown towards unsettled conditions Sunday evening onwards, but its from Thursday things become far more uncertain. Much will depend on the track of ex hurricane jaoquin, GFS has the feature stalling in the atlantic allowing heights to the NE to nudge southwest and pull in a continental SE flow by the weekend, ECM earlier today had the feature further east producing southwesterly airflow by the weekend with frontal/trough activity over western parts of the country, but this evening as moved closer to GFS showing the system further west, and thereafter allowing a full on continental easterly onslaught.

 

Met office also quite uncertain in this evenings long range outlook, quickly backing off the call of an unsettled week next week and now saying only for the start of the week.

 

If we see the models continue on there theme of backing the system further westwards in tomorrows outputs then the likelihood of the block to the NE influencing things later this week will seem very likely, alas we shall wait and see.

 

Its an interesting set up synoptic wise far from the atlantic westerly juggernaut, which often tends to show its hand at this time in the year. I always take note when the atlantic fails to influence the UK in October, it can (not speculating here) suggest the atmosphere isn't playing its normal seasonal tune and begins to raise prospects of an interesting late season ahead (not the usual westerly pattern), if we were a month ahead than we are, winter cold enthusiasts would have every reason to be raising an eyebrow or two and quite rightly suggesting the default atlantic pattern may not be the form horse going ahead, alas we aren't in early November just yet..

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

Just a quick question. With the weather patterns being amplified at the moment is this good for the hopes of a cold winter??

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The northern blocking doesn't look like it is going to go quietly into the night (sink into the continent) as modeled previously which backs up the Atlantic long enough for reinforcements to arrive (another shot of WAA)

All this leads to a day 10 GFS 00z chart that makes snow lovers weep and sigh, "If only it were January"

 

gfsnh-0-234.png?0

 

What does this mean for Winter prospects?

Not a thing I suspect but Russian/Siberian snow cover should get off to a very good early start and for those who believe it aids the chances of the Siberian/Russian high retrogressing in the winter months it is looking good.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just a quick question. With the weather patterns being amplified at the moment is this good for the hopes of a cold winter??

 

Bad I hope as when winter arrives proper we will have got the high amplification out of the way and into a more mobile pattern bringing wet and warm to all.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Bad I hope as when winter arrives proper we will have got the high amplification out of the way and into a more mobile pattern bringing wet and warm to all.

Haha well thankfully it doesn't quite work like that does it , although it doesn't really mean much at this stage we can take a few positives at this stage :

1: to see the jet stream displaced in autumn when it should be rampant , but rather been bossed about by an unusually early start to winter to much of Northern Europe .

2: Warm air advection been pumped high up into the polar regions preventing the vortex from gaining strength which if continued could prove pivotal moving forward .

3: Siberian snow index getting off to a fantastic start , not just restricted to Siberia but moving into more central/northern parts of Europe as we progress through the next 7 days . With last year been the exception , it usually is vital to bringing winter home . 2012/13 been a fantastic example of this "theory" proving correct , I'm convinced that was a major player which helps wave activity into the stratosphere , in my opinion nobody should underestimate the impacts of SSI .

post-9095-0-24470500-1443942472_thumb.jppost-9095-0-79927900-1443942490_thumb.jp

Even right out into la la land we can very prominent northern blocking

post-9095-0-88956500-1443942540_thumb.jp

Whilst been cautious not to be led up a garden path , I would much rather see this now , than a developing vortex , we no November normally sees all hopes dashed , aka last year , so let's keep our feet on the ground lol , but I think it's fair to say Iv creeped out the wood work !!

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Haha well thankfully it doesn't quite work like that does it , although it doesn't really mean much at this stage we can take a few positives at this stage :

1: to see the jet stream displaced in autumn when it should be rampant , but rather been bossed about by an unusually early start to winter to much of Northern Europe .

2: Warm air advection been pumped high up into the polar regions preventing the vortex from gaining strength which if continued could prove pivotal moving forward .

3: Siberian snow index getting off to a fantastic start , not just restricted to Siberia but moving into more central/northern parts of Europe as we progress through the next 7 days . With last year been the exception , it usually is vital to bringing winter home . 2012/13 been a fantastic example of this "theory" proving correct , I'm convinced that was a major player which helps wave activity into the stratosphere , in my opinion nobody should underestimate the impacts of SSI .

attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

Even right out into la la land we can very prominent northern blocking

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Whilst been cautious not to be led up a garden path , I would much rather see this now , than a developing vortex , we no November normally sees all hopes dashed , aka last year , so let's keep our feet on the ground lol , but I think it's fair to say Iv creeped out the wood work !!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=384&mode=0&carte=

 

all i say  the ;last frames  in fantasy world  this place would be licking  their lips  for winter!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Sunday Everyone! Just musing at the gfs at T+216 are perfect Winter synoptics, I wonder if this set-up will be modelled into November and December? :cc_confused:  :cold:  :rofl:  Its a shame its so early in the season, but interesting viewing nonetheless!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

ECM op. run looks a bit isolated this morning taking Joaquin north,which creates rather large differences down the line!

 

ecm 144..post-2839-0-01943600-1443944602_thumb.gi  ukmo 144..post-2839-0-29737800-1443944611_thumb.gi

 

 

ecm 192..post-2839-0-42627200-1443945279_thumb.gi  gfs 192..post-2839-0-75585800-1443945293_thumb.pn

 

Expect model verification to nosedive over the next couple of weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS anomalies this morning are showing the transition from the Scandinavian block, trough eastern Europe with general low pressure over Europe to a gradual erosion of the block accompanied by height rises to the south west leading to a slack W/NW airflow, relatively pleasant weather and average temps.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 4TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to decline across the UK with troughs of Low pressure moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near 6500ft over NE Scotland and over 11000ft over SW England. Snow levels continue to increase over NE Russia and the usual locations at this time of Autumn.

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods for some too.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern and Southern arm of the Jet Stream continuing to flow both North and South of the UK respectively over the next week. Then the flows break up and become ill defined through the second week and blow much lighter than is usual at this time of year.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the week ahead in two different guises with the first half soon becoming unsettled with rain or showers, heavy at times as Low pressure swings NE across the UK in the coming days. pressure then recovers later in the week with a return to fine and quiet weather over the UK before the remains of tropical storm Joaquin stalls just to the West of the UK throwing warm and moist air across the South of the UK with heavy rain in places. then as this crosses the UK through the second week winds swing to a chilly North or NE with cold and steadily improving conditions expected then across all areas.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run though the second week sees improvements arrive in the shape of a ridge from the South rather than the NW with fine less chilly weather than the Operational before a drift back towards more unsettled and windier Atlantic driven weather for all is shown by Day 15.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The full GFS Clusters are not available this morning at time of issue.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today looks unsettled for a time early in the week as Low pressure and troughs move NE across the UK. pressure then rises soon after midweek from the South and later East with fine and dry weather for many before cloud and rain edges into SW Britain by the weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follows the raw data well with pressure rising again after midweek largely responsible to the remains of the ex tropical feature Joaquin moving into the SW approaches at the end of the week which pumps up some warm Southerly winds ahead of it for next weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM also shows the unsettled Low pressure based theme of early week short-lived as High pressure gradually regains control of the UK weather stretching down from the NE at the end of the week. SE winds and any unsettled weather will then be restricted to SW Britain towards and towards the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the same theme as the rest with the unsettled weather of early in the week replaced by drier conditions later as pressure builds again from the East and NE. The end of the run features High to the North and Low to the South with Easterly winds and any rain restricted to the far South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning is on the whole not a bad run once the next few days of unsettled and rainy weather moves away as unlike some of the other output it takes the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin harmlessly away to the NW of the UK late this coming week with a ridge of High pressure largely maintaining control across at least the South of the UK with fine and relatively dry weather with any unsettled conditions restrictive in extent.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to both the NE and SW with a slender ridge likely to be lying across the UK at that time with any rain most likely to the far SE and NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show some inconsistencies still largely revolving around the track of ex-hurricane Joaquin.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.8 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts then GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.7 pts over GFS's 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.1 pts to 34.6 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS  Since I last reported on the models on Friday morning the situation on the weather across the UK this week has firmed up in detail with the week ahead looking split into two sections. The current last remains of the recent fine spell will end tonight and tomorrow as troughs of Low pressure bring unstable and humid conditions North and East over Britain with some outbreaks of heavy and possibly thundery rain for all over tomorrow and Tuesday and Wednesday. then pressure looks like rising again largely due to the remains of ex-hurricane Joaquin crossing the Atlantic later this week pumping up some warm air from Europe across the UK. There is still some disagreement on the exact track of this feature with ECM highlighting the differences by showing it tracking well to the NW out of harms way to the UK. Most other output keep it further South across the Atlantic but off shore to the West or SW with any direct influence from it restricted to the far South or SW all the time with pressure remaining High over Scandinavia. Then later in the period the pattern remains fairly unclear but there seems nothing particularly alarmist and unpleasant within the output again today that would be deemed as unusual at this time of year and indeed at times and from some output the weather could become quite warm by day at times with winds from a source well South of the UK.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif

 

The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+288hrs with Low pressure over Southern Britain and NW Europe engaging some cold air from Scandinavia which if evolved would bring not only wet and windy weather but with increasingly low temperatures sufficient to allow some snowfall over the highest ground of the North.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

Contrastingly, the best chart of the day is taken from ECM at Day 10 which this morning shows potential for another fine spell as High pressure from the Azores is shown to be ridging across the UK from the SW with dry and settled conditions as a result with temperatures close to average after the remnants of Low pressure leaks away from both the NW and SE.

 

Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 5th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

NOAA anomaly charts are pretty consistent and sequential in their upper air ideas but the ECMWF-GFS are less so. I suspect that the ex hurricane is the cause. I would go with the NOAA versions but with less confidence than usual until Joaquin is out of the way.

links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm anamoly is not in complete agreement with the GEFS but does agree on small height rises to the SW. It does keep a weak trough and general LP over Europe which may play a part in the evolving detail and and it continues this theme into the ext period. So far nothing untoward appears to be lurking in the woodshed.

 

post-12275-0-22663400-1443949377_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Haha well thankfully it doesn't quite work like that does it , although it doesn't really mean much at this stage we can take a few positives at this stage :

1: to see the jet stream displaced in autumn when it should be rampant , but rather been bossed about by an unusually early start to winter to much of Northern Europe .

2: Warm air advection been pumped high up into the polar regions preventing the vortex from gaining strength which if continued could prove pivotal moving forward .

3: Siberian snow index getting off to a fantastic start , not just restricted to Siberia but moving into more central/northern parts of Europe as we progress through the next 7 days . With last year been the exception , it usually is vital to bringing winter home . 2012/13 been a fantastic example of this "theory" proving correct , I'm convinced that was a major player which helps wave activity into the stratosphere , in my opinion nobody should underestimate the impacts of SSI .

attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

Even right out into la la land we can very prominent northern blocking

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Whilst been cautious not to be led up a garden path , I would much rather see this now , than a developing vortex , we no November normally sees all hopes dashed , aka last year , so let's keep our feet on the ground lol , but I think it's fair to say Iv creeped out the wood work !!

 

SSIB..

 

Talking about last winter 14-15,  we did get the arctic blocking  which was forecast by the OPI, and early siberiian snow cover,etc.

 

The thing that upset the apple cart  was that it formed (and stuck) in the wrong place for us, over the other side of the pole. Maybe this year  (and the signs are looking good at the moment), it will form on our side.

 

As always, nice to see you awakening from your hibernation!

 

MIA

 

just seen Phil's post above, so we must all keep our optimism in check!

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

just seen Phil's post above, so we must all keep our optimism in check!

I think you know where i am coming from MIA.

People are entitled to post any reasonable views on the models in here but we do get new members every year who may appreciate some objective balance.

I will be as optimistic as anyone wrt cold and snow- if these patterns are around in Winter but for now it's nothing out of the ordinary.

 

That i suppose was the point of my post. :)

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