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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

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A new thread ready for the start of October.

 

It's been a fairly quiet start to Autumn so far with the Atlantic jet to still  really fire up.

Certainly the last week or so has seen some lovely sunny and warm days after the cold starts, from clear skies,all thanks to a large blocking high across the UK and NW Europe.

 

It looks like there is something of a change on the way around the weekend as pressure finally begins to fall as an Atlantic trough starts to show it's hand.

 

Something of a breakdown looks likely then for the start of next week but how extensive and long lasting this will be remains up for discussion with all the 12z models still showing high pressure around just to our east as we go into next week.

 

Ok then on with the discussion. :) 

 

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33 pages in a month, not bad for September, as I reckon September is the quietest month on here, as Frosty says roll on winter, where it could be 33 pages in 1 week

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Roll on winter..

Lol yes not the most exciting period of model discussion Frosty.

The pattern is slow to change and at this stage no real wild weather on the horizon-at least on this side of the pond.

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Roll on winter..

 

Hopefully we will see more NH profiles similar to this one in the coming winter.

 

post-2839-0-63699400-1443649528_thumb.pn

 

 

Would make a good front cover for Bluearmy's book of building blocks. :D

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The GFS shows an interesting feature for Monday as a Low pushes North effecting Ireland & the N/W Highlands, Bringing some heavy rain and severe gales for coastal areas.

post-12319-0-66536100-1443679601_thumb.p

post-12319-0-77721200-1443679617_thumb.p

post-12319-0-22353800-1443679637_thumb.p

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The ECM is still taking Joaquin well away from danger:

 

ECH1-96.GIF?01-12

 

Remarkable. It's either going to be a huge victory or an embarrassing bust. 

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Lol yes not the most exciting period of model discussion Frosty.

The pattern is slow to change and at this stage no real wild weather on the horizon-at least on this side of the pond.

Quite a change from the gfs this morning phil :D

 

Next week onwards the Gfs 00z op shows many bands of rain crossing the uk from w/e or sw/ne and occasionally strong to gale force winds peppering the uk, especially exposed coastal areas...plenty of weather action for a change! :smile:  

post-4783-0-77206100-1443681133_thumb.pn

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Just for a bit of fun, but the 00Z GEM today decides to put Eastern UK inside the sun as a fairly intense area Low Pressure out West late next week draws the 15*C (edit: 850 hPa temperature line) up towards South-Eastern UK. Quite incredible for this time of year (although have seen models do this a few times in the past).

post-10703-0-97133000-1443681791_thumb.jpost-10703-0-90065700-1443681804_thumb.j

Having said that, temperatures at the surface would probably be suppressed a bit under the cloud and rain the low would likely bring, particularly towards Western UK. Unlikely to come off, but interesting to see nonetheless.

Does look as though that the High Pressure this week could gradually lose the duel match against the monstrous troughing in the Atlantic bringing more unsettled and changeable conditions from the West as some have talked about. The NOAA 500mb charts from last night do show Atlantic troughing from West becoming more influential for the UK, particularly Western UK. This supporting the idea of more changeable and disturbed conditions evolving towards next week and perhaps the week after. But still with some areas of ridging and higher than average heights hanging about to our East/North-East.

post-10703-0-99964300-1443681825_thumb.jpost-10703-0-65360400-1443682685_thumb.j

Roll on winter..

...and this. :spiteful:

post-10703-0-20634300-1443681841_thumb.jpost-10703-0-05730700-1443681850_thumb.j

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 1ST 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure remains slow moving across the British Isles with the fresh Easterly flow over Southern England decreasing.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK but amounts in NE Russia, Alaska, Greenland along with the mountains of Iceland is increasing now as one would expect.

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North for a few more days before it troughs South a long way over the Atlantic and returns NE across the UK next week. It then becomes focused much further South than of late, often across the UK in the association with Low pressure close to the North and NW.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current fine weather deteriorating over the weekend as more cloud develops across the UK. Then through next week a fresh South wind will send warm and moist air North over Britain with troughs edging East slowly. Heavy rain in the West will slowly transfer East over several days opening the door to a more mobile spell of Atlantic West to SW winds and rain at times and temperatures near average or a little below at times across the North later as cooler air feeds down from the NW for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run with the theme of rain moving East over the UK early next week rather quicker with the theme of rain at times thereafter in a WSW flow and some drier intervals across the South at times. At the end of the period a deep Low pressure moves in across the UK with widespread gales and heavy rain as a result.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 65/35% split in favour of Low pressure in control across the UK in 14 days time in association with a trough either down over the UK from the NW or under an unstable and blustery WSW flow with rain at times, heaviest across the West and North.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today has moved back towards a much more unsettled and windy period as it shows rain and windy weather moving slowly North and East across Southern and Western areas as early as Monday followed by further Low pressure troughs in association with deep Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic later next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining slowly over the next 5 days with troughs ganging up over the Eastern Atlantic by Monday spreading more unsettled weather North and East across the UK from next Monday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM also shows the fine weather moving away by early next week as a small Low moves across the South from the SW with rain for all and opening the door to an unstable but mild SW flow with further troughs delivering rain and showers at times for all but with some lengthy dry spells developing in the SE with higher pressure remaining ensconced across France.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows a short decline in conditions across England and Wales early next week as a trough swings NE and delivers rain for all followed by a blustery SSW wind. From then on rain becomes more and more restricted to the far NW again as pressure builds slowly across England and Wales next week in accompaniment of a warm SSW airflow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning has High pressure in it's present form declining at the weekend as a trough of Low pressure moves SW to NE across England and Wales with a spell of rain for all Monday into Tuesday. A ridge of High pressure midweek returns some fine conditions before the next troughs move similarly NE across the UK with some more rain Wednesday and into Thursday. Pressure then builds SW from rising pressure to the North and NE with a battleground scenario developing between troughs to the SW making only slow and erratic progress NE with rain most likely then across the South and West. Temperatures look largely close to average or a little above in the sun shines and in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW but has taken further to the NW reducing the effects of the rain at times SW'ly flow more concentrated towards the North and West rather than elsewhere

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still show little consistency in the way conditions will unfold once the current High pressure declines and the trough early next week moves into the UK from the SW.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.7 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.1 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts then GFS at 84.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 53.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS  just leads ECM at 36.0 pts to 35.4 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS  The models remain focused on bringing an end to the recent fine and sunny weather as High pressure declines over the weekend and is replaced by a trough moving up from the SW on Monday. What is less clear is how the weather evolves from that point on with the majority show this feature opening the door to a lengthy period of SSW winds and rain at times focused chiefly towards the West and North but by no means exclusively. There is some deviation from this with rain becoming more focused to the NW as pressure builds from the SE ala ECM and NAVGEM. ECM too has it's own version of a non straightforward pattern setting up a build of pressure to the NE later which sets up a blocking pattern which hinders troughs to the SW from making much in the way of progress NE across the UK. GFS also has variability within a general similar theme between it's operational and Control Run focusing on a trend to push the worst of conditions up to the NW while the GFS Control Run shows a major storm system at the end of the period with rain and gales for all. So which one is right? Well I think the pattern will remain unresolved until late this weekend at the earliest when a clearer handle on the progress of more unsettled weather next week should be agreed better between the models. The only constant is that we are unlikely to see the largely cloudless skies of this week next week as cloud will often be a major player, rain or not. Temperatures on the other hand are expected to remain on the higher side of average if any SSW flow next week develops with night's especially being much warmer. However, with the exception of the deep Low shown by the GFS Control Run in the far reaches of the run there is again nothing too alarmist to worry about in the weather anywhere across the UK over the next 10-14 days with just modest mid Autumn conditions for the most part.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0

 

The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run at 360hrs as it shows a major storm system across NW Britain with heavy rain and gales for all.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm241.gif

 

The best chart of the day illustrates how synoptics deteriorate over the coming period as the best chart I can fine this morning belongs to the ECM 24 hr chart with the current large High pressure area holding on across the UK continuing to ward off any rain bearing attacks from the Atlantic or elsewhere with warm uppers aloft and good temperatures at the surface by day.

 

Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 2nd 2015

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ecmt850.096.pngECU1-96.GIF?01-12

 

That's a curious little feature whizzing across from the southwest in four days time on the ECM run. UKMO has a similar path but the low is weaker.

 

GFS makes it even stronger than ECM, but it skirts the western coasts of Ireland. Such uncertainty at such short range... a common theme these days,

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ECH101-240.GIF?01-12ECH100-240.GIF?01-12

 

 

ECM is being very persistent with the theme of blocking highs developing from around Svalbard to Siberia and perhaps beyond. The 850 hPa anomaly plot shows a major export of cold air from the Arctic, leaving that region anomalously warm (at the upper levels, at least) while places in the mid-high latitudes experience anomalously cool/cold conditions. That area of 850's 8*C below the LTA over western Asia is impressive in its spatial extent.

 

GFS keeps blowing away the highs over Scandinavia, which is arguably entirely typical of the model.

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Could be up to 150mm of rain in the Sardinia, Corsica and NW Italy area in the next 36hrs/

Chart weatherbell

post-12275-0-22695900-1443704000_thumb.p

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Looking at all Modell output today i can only gleen from them that an interesting further outlook could evolve .

High pressure over some more northern areas and some interesting features in the atlantic .

A different looking upper air profile over the poles on some data and at present it looks like some sort of blocking trying to set up over norther hemisphere locations ,Iam not suggesting any imminent invasion of cold weather but interesting for us Model watchers to get our Teeth into what may or may not be happening during October which can sometimes be a boring Month .

I,m going to put a few STellas on ice ,cheers gang  :yahoo:

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The suggested track of the hurricane into the N Atlantic is interesting, if only to see how differently the 2 main models deal with it. Not looked at UK Met to see where it has it at 120 and 144.

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Quite a change from the gfs this morning phil :D

 

Next week onwards the Gfs 00z op shows many bands of rain crossing the uk from w/e or sw/ne and occasionally strong to gale force winds peppering the uk, especially exposed coastal areas...plenty of weather action for a change! :smile:  

Yes on that run it is Frosty but we see a lot of uncertainty after Monday.

A look at the fax for Sunday we can see the approach of the trough from the Atlantic with those surface lows

post-2026-0-49998700-1443708958_thumb.gi

 

the fronts set to come in Monday.

The overall picture beyond is then handled differently with that GFS you posted much more progressive pushing the high away whilst the ECM op shows the continental block trying to reassert itself and the trough being pushed back.

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The suggested track of the hurricane into the N Atlantic is interesting, if only to see how differently the 2 main models deal with it. Not looked at UK Met to see where it has it at 120 and 144.

 

NE Canada at T144

post-12275-0-37943900-1443710003_thumb.g

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Daily comparison using the GFSECMUKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.

 

24 Hours Friday (ECM)

The high pressure still gives off some nice and sunny weather for all of the UK and Ireland apart from Scotland which will be cloudier.

post-6686-0-71687400-1443713895_thumb.pn

 

48 Hours Saturday (CMA)

A mixture of cloud and sunshine with the Northern parts again staying mostly cloudy as the high pressure continues to slowly move away.

post-6686-0-30554800-1443713896_thumb.pn

 

72 Hours Sunday (GEM)

After a nice and sunny start it will become more cloudy by the evening with rain and strong winds coming in from the South West.

post-6686-0-70846900-1443713896_thumb.pn

 

96 Hours Monday (GFS)

Takes a very unsettled turn as heavy rain is widespread along with strong winds that could see gusts reaching just over 60 mph.

post-6686-0-21770400-1443713897_thumb.pn

 

120 Hours Tuesday (FIM)

Still staying unsettled as low pressure continues to pass over or move near the UK and Ireland. We see more wet and windy weather arrive.

post-6686-0-72161600-1443713897_thumb.pn

 

144 & 168 Hours Wednesday and Thursday (NASA & FIM)

Still looking mainly unsettled as low pressure sits to the West of Iceland and over Western and Northern parts of the UK.

post-6686-0-22072200-1443713898_thumb.pn post-6686-0-75460700-1443713898_thumb.pn

 

192 & 216 & 240 Hours Friday, Saturday and Sunday (GEM & NASA)

Its still looking mostly unsettled as we approach mid October with low pressure systems passing over the UK.

post-6686-0-23701300-1443713899_thumb.pn post-6686-0-52967400-1443713899_thumb.pn post-6686-0-85055700-1443713899_thumb.pn

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Other than the details for our weather it looks like the larger synoptic pattern will be Northern blocking and a significant cool down extending out of Russia and into Eastern and perhaps central Europe and Scandinavia.

It will  be interesting to see how far West this cold surge pushes and how long the continent can hold onto the cold.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-1-192.png?12

 

Also very mild off the East coast of Greenland so the sea ice refreeze is likely to be delayed here until later in the season.

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Other than the details for our weather it looks like the larger synoptic pattern will be Northern blocking and a significant cool down extending out of Russia and into Eastern and perhaps central Europe and Scandinavia.

It will  be interesting to see how far West this cold surge pushes and how long the continent can hold onto the cold.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-1-192.png?12

 

Also very mild off the East coast of Greenland so the sea ice refreeze is likely to be delayed here until later in the season.

A month later and this mornings ECM and tonights GFS would be causing some excitement. If those cold uppers do get into western Russia then at this time of year you would see a rapid cooldown. As you say though how long can the cold hold for?

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ECM 12 a bi t more progressive than the 00z and has the block further East. The first potentially stormy weather of the Autumn for the UK?

 

ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

 

Probably all change again tomorrow.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

deep into fantasy world  russia  is looking  very cold early  this  year

Also a fantastically strong high pressure cell over the UK in that time. But as its one ensemble member of many, its a pretty pointless chart. Again, why not focus closer to the time than FI all the time which never materializes as so?

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Very early season Nick..cool downs east are as we know up and down but I'm more excited to see you here on 1st October hehe...cold is afoot roll on Winter with cold

Thanks for your nice words. Yes its a bit early for me to come out of my hibernation but that blocking near Svalbard looked interesting. October is a funny month for cold and snow lovers, we're sort of in a holding pattern waiting for the off!

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Just seen the Gfs 12z and looking at the bigger picture it's great to see the build up of cold to the NE :cold:

 

As for the uk, it's looking increasingly like an unsettled outlook next week and potentially further ahead with the atlantic really cranking up next week, especially later next week with spells of wet and windy weather. The Gfs 12z and now the Ecm 12z show a BIG change next week which i'm not disappointed about, some will want the anticyclonic spell to go on and on :lazy:  but I think it's time we had a change and it looks like we are going to get one! :D

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