atlantic Major Hurricane Joaquin

[Boro Snow]

nice photo from space

 

[summer blizzard]

We may never get a Caribbean Cruiser this year but it's interesting on the image below that you can see it's the Caribbean feeding it.

[knocker]

The first major hurricane to impact the Bahamas in October in 61 years! (Hazel-1954).

 

[lorenzo]

This pearler arrived on Twitter...

 

Slow, slow season, but epic image..

 

 

 

Well played ECM good work...

[Lauren]

It will be interesting to see the route our flight on Monday will go. From the looks of it, each of the 3 routes it normally takes will be heavilh impacted by Joaquin and the little storms flaking off from it. I'd guess at over Bermuda and hang along the Cuban coast.

[lorenzo]

Great video from Levi Cowan

 

[lorenzo]

Pinhole eye now visible.

Nhc have gone with 954mb, 105mph. Category 2.

Recon just found 949mb, 102kt (117mph).

Can't rule out a category 4 peak.

Well played 24 hrs later NHC Recon confirms 931mb.

Cat 4.

[radiohead]

Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

 

0Z ECM & GFS still have a track that takes it out to sea, though both models have shifted west a bit.

[matty40s]

The Bahamas has been under this for almost 36 hours now. I do not look forward to the reports once the turn and move away happens.

[Thunder Snow]

Looks like eastern parts of the USA can start breathing again http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084015.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[radiohead]

Every single GEFS member tracks this well out to sea from the US coast.

A huge win for the ECM which showed this back while literally every other model showed a US landfall.

[Thunder Snow]

A has the storm reached its peak

[Lauren]

Can see the webcam here. Was much worse earlier. Seems to be a lull at the moment.

 

http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

[summer blizzard]

Well done Euro.

 

Intense convection looks more ragged now as opposed to surrounding the eye. Either we'll get an ERC and a final push or this has likely peaked now.

[Nick F]

Looks like Joaquin was stuck over the Bahamas for much of their night, think the slowness of the hurricane's track has caught those models (other than the Euro) out. The Category 4 Hurricane certainly given the Bahamas a prolonged bashing!

 

Looking rather worrisome for the eastern Seaboard wrt to potential for historic floods into early next week, as although Joaquin looks to stay offshore as it tracks north, copious tropical moisture from it combined with stalled front and upper low over eastern US looks to unleash some very large amounts of rain ... some U.S. Mets not ruling out a 1,000 year flood in the Carolinas. Already South Carolina has seen days of rain with some serious flash-flooding from one downpour yesterday that brough 4 inches in a short space of time.

 

The remnants of Joaquin look to cross the N Atlantic as a deep depression next week, perhaps approaching NW Britain by Friday, but long-way off to be certain of the eventual track it will take.

Edited October 2, 2015 by Nick F

[Nouska]

Anybody following the hurricane hunters yesterday would have noticed a strange deviation and break in communications: they were tasked to help in the search for this merchant vessel. Sadly, it looks as if it may be lost, along with the crew of 33 on board.

 

http://www.weather.com/news/news/hurricane-joaquin-el-faro-us-coast-guard-florida

[Singularity]

'1000 year flood' sounds like a flood that will last a thousand years, imagine if the media got hold of that idea    

 

Of course the real definition - an event on a scale that 'on average' you wouldn't expect to see more than once every 1000 years - is still very alarming. Thoughts are with those who face destructive weather conditions of some kind or other.

Edited October 2, 2015 by Singularity

[summer blizzard]

Sounds about right if a ship was there. It's no joke when you get warnings that include phrases like 'damage from hurricane x will be catastrophic'. Even the worst winter storms only produce TS force sustained winds for most places in the UK.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's models on joaquin

 

GFS and ECM keep it out west

 

 

JMA takes it south

 

 

GEM has it over the UK

 

[Daniel*]

The US Coast Guard continue their search for a container ship with 33 people on board, which last sent a distress call from west of the Bahamas

http://news.sky.com/story/1562988/hurricane-joaquin-33-on-board-missing-ship

Unfortunately I fear the worst.

[summer blizzard]

Strengthening again.

Will also be close to Bermuda.

[Singularity]

 

Sheesh. This thing just won't quit!

 

Check out these two lines from one of the latest vortex messages:

 

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg) - Extrapolated

 

That's Category 5 strength. I did suspect this sort of thing might happen when Joaquin suddenly spun up a full wraparound of very intense convection at around 10:00 this morning (BST).

 

 

The NHC has chosen 155 mph for the official status though. I believe 156 mph is the Category 5 limit so, with all due respect, this seems a bit unfair of the NHC to Joaquin. I get why though - they only ever work in 5 mph increments so it would have to hit 160 mph to qualify in that manner.

 

Here's the update information:

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

 

 

I believe that when the eye wobbled violently, that was a burst of particularly strong winds, when surface speeds may have been as high as 180 mph based on similar behaviour observed in Hurricane Wilma of 2005. The true peak of this cyclone may never truly be recorded.

Edited October 3, 2015 by Singularity

[summer blizzard]

Doubt it was close to that high but the sat image a few hours ago looked like the strong west pacific canes we've seen this year.

[Somerset Squall]

Wow, I am impressed! I did not expect Joaquin to be a 135kt cat 4 this afternoon. That was an impressive burst of intensification as it moves to the northeast away from the Bahamas. A bizarre track, and a very interesting hurricane to follow.

[summer blizzard]

Probably suggests that upwelling was the reason for no longer strengthening at 130mph for a while.