Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Recommended Posts

Tropical Depression 21W has formed approximately 200 miles northwest of Guam. Convection is becoming more persistant but there appears to be multiple circulations associated with the depression. Winds are at 25kts. Whilst the system has multiple centres, strengthening will be slow. However, as shear is lessening, and waters are warm, intensification is expected. Faster intensification is forecast beyond 72hrs as the system's inner core becomes fully established and upper level conditions are set to become even more favourable.

A west-northwest track is expected initially along the south side of a ridge to the north. This ridge is not expected to hold out that long as a trough attempts to break it down and causes a weakness. This will cause 21W to move in a more northerly direction. The timing of this turn is uncertain.

post-1820-0-91679900-1442872783_thumb.gi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

21W became Tropical Storm Dujuan yesterday and has since slowly strengthened to 45kts. Moderate shear is preventing quick strengthening as it is disrupting the formation of an inner core. Convection is very deep in association with Dujuan however. Shear should ease eventually, allowing quicker intensification.

Track forecasts have shifted considerably since the first advisory. Model disagreement has been high, but there is now more agreement on a more westerly heading overall towards Taiwan instead of a northerly track towards Japan. This is due to the models now depicting a stronger ridge to the north and less trough interaction with Dujuan.

You can see the massive difference in the track forecast by comparing the track map below to the one in my first post.

post-1820-0-31004500-1443047411_thumb.gi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dujuan has developed a ragged eye overnight and a well established central dense overcast is in place now shear has eased. Dujuan's winds are at 75kts now according to JTWC, which makes the system a typhoon.

Further strengthening is expected. Shear is now reletively low, waters remain very warm along track and outflow is good in all directions. JTWC expect a peak of 120kts. There is still some model disagreement, but JTWC still favours a more westerly heading typhoon to affect the Japanese islands, Taiwan and eastern China.

post-1820-0-10790600-1443175278_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dujuan's eye has become better defined, and winds are up to 105kts according to JTWC. Further intensification is expected before Dujuan impacts Taiwan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dujuan is now a category 4 on the SS scale, with winds of 125kts. On a collision course with Taiwan which really isn't good news with a system as strong as Dujuan. Landfall should occur in a little over 12hrs time.

post-1820-0-42304800-1443369163_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dujuan has moved inland over China and dissipated. 3 deaths have been reported but damage to Taiwan was extensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...