HO-PI Winter Index 2015/16

[Paul]

Think you're misreading the scale there - the deepest blues and reds are any numbers in excess of +1.5 or -1.5, so could in theory be plus or minus 5, 10 or whatever. It's obviously not intended to be that granular though as you are talking a seasonal forecast 3 months from starting. 

[Costa Del Fal]

Think you're misreading the scale there - the deepest blues and reds are any numbers in excess of +1.5 or -1.5, so could in theory be plus or minus 5, 10 or whatever. It's obviously not intended to be that granular though as you are talking a seasonal forecast 3 months from starting. 

Indeed yes. I think the charts are quite easy to read though.

[Nights King]

I've gone for 70% mild, it has to be the form horse as it's usually what we get.

 

What ever the case, mild or cold, I just hope it's not to wet and windy.

 

Surely the form horse would be an average winter? Mild would suggest warmer than normal? 

[Nouska]

I'll say one thing, longer range modelling seems far more promising for potential cold (thus far) than it did last year. The long range models hit the nail on the head for last year. I remember being at a loss to account for the differences between the much talked about OPI figure and models such as ECMWF seasonal and Glosea etc. I've not seen any output but merely heard suggestions that Eurosip is much more keen on N Atlantic blocking this year along with the stunning Glosea output...

 

 

 

 

Pertinent to note that this isn't just one model run, it's an ensemble mean.

 

Also notice how much of the USA and Canada is warmer than average (particularly up the western side I would imagine?...typical el nino pattern there?

 

 

 

The EUROSIP multi-model ensemble mean for T2m and precipitation. They don't give Z500 maps in the public images.

 

  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I've gone for 70% mild, it has to be the form horse as it's usually what we get.

 

What ever the case, mild or cold, I just hope it's not to wet and windy.

 

Agree with that generally, wet n windy I would say form horse, just hope not quite as bad as winter 13-14

[terrier]

I've gone for 80% chance of a mild winter. As 9 times out of 10 that's our default weather in winter in the UK. But only time will tell.

[snawbaw]

I'm hoping for a winter just like last year with snow on the ground for almost 3 weeks and temps down to -11.  There is no default UK weather just location, location, location but I guess it's good banter to hopecast.

[roys]

well it will be winter so no mater what it will be cold  radiators on  keeping warm gone for 60% at this range, we will see.

[cheese]

Surely the form horse would be an average winter? Mild would suggest warmer than normal? 

This point seems to be flying over everyone's head - no idea why people are ignoring it.

Edited September 22, 2015 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm hoping for a winter just like last year with snow on the ground for almost 3 weeks and temps down to -11.  There is no default UK weather just location, location, location but I guess it's good banter to hopecast.

 

well the default position for here is Westerlies, low pressure, wind and rain, especially winter but really all times of year, low pressure way more frequent than high

[Fingers]

60% cold is my prediction with the cooler Atlantic, more southerly jet and reducing sunspot activity leading us to be -0.5'c to -1'c below average.

Fear the south may just get cold and wet, especially early winter, whilst the north have the better of it with a more northerly influences. Potentially a colder end to the winter with the Nino effect at least giving us something to get excited about down south.

Would be great if this is the first of a cluster of colder than average winters if we get La Niña conditions following this winter, the Atlantic entering it's cooler phase, solar minimum (following the path of cycle 12) and a cooler North Pacific, you never know we may see The Beast making a reappearance and be able to wax up those sledges!!!

[cheese]

well the default position for here is Westerlies, low pressure, wind and rain, especially winter but really all times of year, low pressure way more frequent than high

No, definitely not. Doesn't rain much, nor is it very windy. This year has been consistently windy but it was unusual.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The EUROSIP multi-model ensemble mean for T2m and precipitation. They don't give Z500 maps in the public images.

 

  

 

The precipitation map is the give away there RE potential synoptics. Drier than average N Atlantic/Iceland and wetter than average S England and into France/Portugal/N Spain. Looks like Icelandic high/southerly jet combo based on that with perhaps S England milder at times but with plenty of snowfall opportunities (especially on the N flank of the depressions). The idea that keeps coming through to me is one that sees the mean jet angled SW-NE BUT much further S than we'd usually see this occur. This would favour the NW of the UK in theory as we'd see wrap around snow on the NW flank of the depressions and would perhaps favour blizzards at times too in said locations. In some respects this adds weight to Simon Keeling's views of the NW of the country seeing both the coldest and snowiest conditions with the S seeing milder conditions and less snow days.

 

However it plays out, given the propensity for late season cold during El Nino winters I'd suggest that perhaps a key feature of this winter will be a stormy, wet start for all with a gradual displacement of the PFJ further and further S throughout the winter period, perhaps culminating in a more ideally placed HLB into Feb and beyond?

 

It would be good to hear GP's views but I think this will be unlikely given his commitments to another organisation.

Edited September 22, 2015 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

At this early stage I've gone 60% colder than average.   I think the cold pool in the North Atlantic is a player, one thing I have noticed through this year is how cold it gets at night, even in high summer.  If Westerlies are to dominate I think any HP or transient HP or winds north of West will bring cold nights and generally cooler conditions.  If we have HP over us or to the North then real cold nights or winds from E of N quadrant will bring below average conditions.  On that basis is my 60% colder thoughts, not based on any early LRF thoughs/preparations.

One thing I have noticed is the distinct lack of any long fetch oR prolonged very mild SW'ly flow, and I think that theme will continue through Autumn and Winter.

 

BFTP

[mpkio2]

After months of hibernation, finally coming out!

 

What a wonderful idea, Paul!!

 

I voted for a 70% chance of a colder than average winter. My thinking narrows down to what many on have already posted as their reasons; with a high chance of a Midoki El-nino, colder than average North Atlantic seas, Tri-pole slowly forming in Atlantic, good melt season in artic, and long rangers (For now,) going for above averge heights in the GIN corridor in DJF.

 

This is how I seee things occuring:

November: stormy with some cooler air at times (Maybe cold shot at end of month la Nov 2010)

December: continuing theme of stormy

January: Becoming cooler and graduly colder, with snow near end of month

Febuary: Coldest month of Winter , but with mild interludes

 

This is all just guessing, but thats the whole fun of this forum, after all!

 

P.S. Welcome back to the forums, everyone! This is gonna be one wild ride, thats for sure!!

[knocker]

*No* blocky N Atl winters since '70 outside +/- 2 yrs of solar mins. Probably not coincidence. Next min 4-5 yrs away

 

Suggests another 3-W winter likely in Europe (warm/wet/windy), Pac/Arctic blocking still potentially in play though

 

So wet and warm

 

 

P.S. Welcome back to the forums, everyone! This is gonna be one wild ride, thats for sure!!

 

Don't forget bon voyage to those leaving

Edited September 23, 2015 by knocker

[Godber 1]

*No* blocky N Atl winters since '70 outside +/- 2 yrs of solar mins. Probably not coincidence. Next min 4-5 yrs away

 

Suggests another 3-W winter likely in Europe (warm/wet/windy), Pac/Arctic blocking still potentially in play though

 

So wet and warm

 

 

Don't forget bon voyage to those leaving

With that in mind, i'd settle for a winter like 81,82!

[terrier]

*No* blocky N Atl winters since '70 outside +/- 2 yrs of solar mins. Probably not coincidence. Next min 4-5 yrs away

 

Suggests another 3-W winter likely in Europe (warm/wet/windy), Pac/Arctic blocking still potentially in play though

 

So wet and warm

 

 

Don't forget bon voyage to those leaving

well that's killed this thread knocker lol.!!!! still think we may see a few colder blasts this winter compared to last winter. But still going for a milder winter overall. As we all know that is our default winter weather in the UK 9 times out of 10 anyway.

[chris55]

Voted 60% colder, simply based on a cold Atlantic, and those Met seasonal charts. Will be interesting to see how October unfolds, a warmer and dryer than average October is often talked about as a precursor to a cold winter....... and with current NWP at least the start of the month looks both mild and settled. 

[stewfox]

Had a lot of changeable weather in recent months so 'over due' some decent long lived blocking but where that sets up is the key

 

I can see a very mild or very cold spell with averages in between. Will check accuracy in March

[solarcycle]

I'm on the fence at the moment. But I have to say that last winter was very good for one thing, the amount of sunshine! Hoping for more of that this time around.

[Fingers]

Solar sunpots have been on the rise recently and today are up to 145 from an average around 60 for the last 2 months. We are running very close to solar cycle 12 and that had one last hoorah before entering solar minimum. Could this peak be just at the wrong time as we enter our winter??!! Hope not!

[solarcycle]

*No* blocky N Atl winters since '70 outside +/- 2 yrs of solar mins. Probably not coincidence. Next min 4-5 yrs away

 

Suggests another 3-W winter likely in Europe (warm/wet/windy), Pac/Arctic blocking still potentially in play though

 

So wet and warm

 

 

Don't forget bon voyage to those leaving

 

Are you hopecasting? 

[Nights King]

Are you hopecasting? 

 

No that's what you call a safe bet living in Cornwall! 

[Daniel*]

I disagree with our average winter being mild typically it's average to slightly below average?