HO-PI Winter Index 2015/16

[Paul]

Welcome to the first monthly test of our new HO-PI (Hope Index - pronounced Hope E I), a new (light hearted!) index for the community to predict the winter ahead. 

 

It's a pretty simple theory - for 10 days at the end of September, October and November we'll open a thread and a poll where everyone will get an opportunity to place their vote based on nothing more than gut instinct for the winter ahead. 

 

There are multiple options, ranging from being 100% confident it's going to be a cold winter, down to being completely convinced it's going to be a mild one. 

 

Obviously this is all very unscientific, and just a bit of fun but we'll publish the result of each month's HO-PI index to show how the Netweather community is feeling about the upcoming winter , and then we can compare it to the reality come Spring!

[simshady]

I voted 80%. I think we are due a cold one after a few milder ones, plus a comparison with solar cycle 12 and 24 (currently) and a cold North Atlantic. Hopefully it will be a corker for cold and snow.

[Daniel*]

100%.

[Captain Shortwave]

70% chance of a milder winter, not feeling too positive at the moment. I suspect despite a weaker Atlantic jet I suspect troughing will dominate in the Atlantic and as such put heights over Europe. That said the high could set up further north and aid a bitter easterly flow. Things might change. It is also worth noting that the colder waters in the Atlantic were starting to warm through a little in the September update, so we will have to watch on that front.

[Costa Del Fal]

Given that coldies dominate here in the upcoming months, its inevitable many will go colder anyway in hopecasting but this is some light hearted fun anyway! I am presuming its voting colder/milder than the average winter temperature rather than colder/milder than last winter. I am going for 70% chance of a colder winter primarily because of the atlantic cold pool which looks forecasted to remain or even strengthen somewhat. With predominant winds from westerly quadrants it seems to make sense it will be somewhat colder than normal from there.  Also lower solar activity may have a small role though im sceptical whether it can make any real noticeable differences, especially while it is still in a declining phase and has not bottomed out yet (sunspots). What doesn't fill me with confidence and is purely unscientific this but this summer we have seen so much northern blocking around Greenland yet this always seems to disappear by winter and seems to have happened in many recent summers. However 2009/10 was an El Nino Year and brought the phenomenal blocking we saw in December. But then no El Nino is the same really and speculation seems to suggest this event could be particularly unique though if it becomes a Modoki, that could favour us more than usual? Oh the Joys of forecasting. The world is so variable and is always changing and always ready to fool us. SSW's could easily set up in the wrong place and the cold pool could rapidly ease away but for now, following fundamental key drivers of our usual weather, I would favour colder than normal conditions for now.

[Methuselah]

I've gone for a 60% chance of a colder, than the previous 2, winter...maybe similar to 1984; plenty of snow, north of the midlands, not a lot further south...

Edited September 20, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Daniel*]

100%.

100%.

Viewer discretion is advised.

[pip22]

I had to be honest 60% confidence its gonna be mild. Hopefully I be wrong about it.

Edited September 20, 2015 by pip22

[gottolovethisweather]

I went for 70% confidence in it being a colder one, my hopes from a cold weather lover's perspective are based around the following. The North Atlantic sea state anomaly being colder than usual for much of the preceding Summer should go on to favour a colder scenario come Winter and largely through Autumn too. Added to this the unknown El Nino effects on our part of the globe I feel will bring about further hope for something colder and perhaps a significant snowfall amongst a generally variable climatological setup. My gut feeling is that overall, the forthcoming Winter might match up well to Winter 2010/11 and that was brutally cold in late November/December over a vast part of the UK and further afield into Northern Europe too. An early Wintry blast is my bet then with the rest of Winter panning out to something rather more mundane as we enter 2016 with more mobility coming into play by then. I love the fun of the chase when it comes to Winter in all honesty and I realise things cannot be predicted with any great certainty, so as a result I like this idea of this HO-PI Winter Index, nice one Paul. 

Edited September 20, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

I voted 50/50 too early for any confidence

[gottolovethisweather]

Given that coldies dominate here in the upcoming months, its inevitable many will go colder anyway in hopecasting but this is some light hearted fun anyway! I am presuming its voting colder/milder than the average winter temperature rather than colder/milder than last winter. I am going for 70% chance of a colder winter primarily because of the atlantic cold pool which looks forecasted to remain or even strengthen somewhat. With predominant winds from westerly quadrants it seems to make sense it will be somewhat colder than normal from there.  Also lower solar activity may have a small role though im sceptical whether it can make any real noticeable differences, especially while it is still in a declining phase and has not bottomed out yet (sunspots). What doesn't fill me with confidence and is purely unscientific this but this summer we have seen so much northern blocking around Greenland yet this always seems to disappear by winter and seems to have happened in many recent summers. However 2009/10 was an El Nino Year and brought the phenomenal blocking we saw in December. But then no El Nino is the same really and speculation seems to suggest this event could be particularly unique though if it becomes a Modoki, that could favour us more than usual? Oh the Joys of forecasting. The world is so variable and is always changing and always ready to fool us. SSW's could easily set up in the wrong place and the cold pool could rapidly ease away but for now, following fundamental key drivers of our usual weather, I would favour colder than normal conditions for now.

 

Hadn't read this until after typing up my comments but you are certainly in my camp with your predictions.

[Costa Del Fal]

Hadn't read this until after typing up my comments but you are certainly in my camp with your predictions.

Hehe, great minds think alike as they say.

 

Good to know you think similar too though. There are so many forcings to consider but considering where our average weather comes from, colder than normal at this moment in time seems only the right way unless a Bartlett sets up and delivers tropical SWly's, bypassing much of the cold pool (assuming it stays where it is). I certainly don't follow into the Europe snow cover thing really, especially the hypotheses which suggest early build up of snow over Eurasia, can enhance our cold prospects. Didn't work last year for example! Maybe the cold snow can enhance development of a high pressure but wouldn't this be more of a surface feature than a meaningful upper level feature, rather like what seems to happen over Greenland at times (indicated by high pressure but blues on the 500hpa charts rather than oranges/reds etc). Besides having Siberian highs drifting our way to affect us is pretty rare i'd imagine. Every year the same areas pretty much get plenty of snow yet it doesn't seem to affect us much.

Edited September 20, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[bobbydog]

100% - winter will be colder than summer.

probably...

anyway, i believe the Express.

they've got to be right eventually!

[Dancerwithwings]

100% hope but my vote was not a bad realistic 70%   

[bryan629]

I hope for a 100% cold winter.. but have opted for 70% based on the solar cycle 24 and corrosponding El-nino year of 1870`s ( cant quite remember what year)  

Also based on quite a bit of reasearch going on regarding the -AO in July, which apparently re-emerges during the winter months and also the latest SST`s where theres the small possibility of a tripole setting up.. but thats a way down the road!! 

 

Im hoping the PV will set up home somewhere over Siberia too with a major SSW in December or January. 

For what its worth cant wait to see what the OPI comes up with when it starts rolling out in ten days or so... thats if its not been dropped after its first disaterous outing last year. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

we all hope, but the reality will be 'bottom option' on poll, we all know Atlantic air dominates our winters, I voted for bottom one

[summer blizzard]

70% cold although quite unsure.

 

While i'm not a fan of the El Nino/QBO combination we have, this El Nino is basin wide and biased to the west. We also have a more moderate PDO and falling solar activity. 

 

If i had to guess i'd say..

 

November: Close to average but wet/stormy

December: Close to average but wet/stormy

January: Cold and dry

February: Cold and dry

March: Close to average

[cheshire snow]

we all hope, but the reality will be 'bottom option' on poll, we all know Atlantic air dominates our winters, I voted for bottom one

Shock/Horror that a surprise.

I went for the 50/50 option to early to try and predict

Winter.

C.S

[starstream]

70% colder, although like others I have 100% hope of cold cold cold all winter long!

[Mark Neal.]

70% confident for a colder winter

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can foresee this winter being fairly cold, but with mostly marginal snow events that may struggle to provide a significant covering at low levels in the south, though with the persistent cold anomaly in the Atlantic, we could get more in the way of January 1984-style snowy westerlies than usual.

[karlos1983]

I've gone 50/50, way to early. Confkers are still on the trees

[mushymanrob]

50/50 ..... i dont see how anyone could predict what winter we will have. of course you can guess or hope, thats different.

[cheeky_monkey]

80% for a mild winter..simply because that's the UK default for winter 8 times out of 10 it will be mild..with the strong el nino going on I was going to plump for 90%..however it did not produce the one hot summer month I expected.

[SteveB]

I've gone for 70% mild, it has to be the form horse as it's usually what we get.

 

What ever the case, mild or cold, I just hope it's not to wet and windy.