October 2015 CET

[Stu_London]

Based on current output I would expect something around 11C-11.5C at the mid month point which I am guessing around or just above the various relevant rolling averages.

 

The door would be open to cold (sub 10C) month, although mild days pushing the value up are as plausible as cold ones bringing the average down in the second half of October. The FI output from the 6z today demonstrates this quite nicely.

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 6th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited October 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[IanR]

it been unusual this year to see both averages above at the same time,  still reckon another overall below will happen

[Stu_London]

it been unusual this year to see both averages above at the same time,  still reckon another overall below will happen

 

Certainly looks like today might be the peak for the month.

 

Unless the mid-term outlook changes CET should head south for quite a while. If the last week is cool/cold, I fancy sub 10C

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 7th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 5.8C, while maxima look like reaching the high 15s, so a drop back to about 12.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

12.2C to the 9th (11.5: -0.4)

12.2C to the 10th (11.5: -0.7)

12.1C to the 11th (11.5: -0.2)

11.8C to the 12th (8.8: -2.8]

11.7C to the 13th (9.6: -1.8]

11.5C to the 14th (9.0: -1.9)

11.4C to the 15th (9.8: -1.0)

11.2C to the 16th (8.5: -1.8]

11.1C to the 17th (9.2: -0.9)

 

Slightly below average for the next few days, but becoming colder as we move into next week, with the CET dropping below the 81-10 average as early as the 12th.

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 8th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 11.2C +1C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 9th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 7.1C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so a drop to 12.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

12.1C to the 11th (11.5: -0.2)

11.8C to the 12th (9.3: -2.3)

11.6C to the 13th (9.3: -2.1)

11.5C to the 14th (9.7: -1.2)

11.4C to the 15th (9.8: -1.0)

11.3C to the 16th (10.6: +0.3)

11.3C to the 17th (9.9: -0.1)

11.2C to the 18th (11.1: +1.0)

11.2C to the 19th (9.6: -0.4)

 

A chilly week coming up, but then things reverting back close to average outside the reliable time frame. At this early stage, we can probably rule out any guesses above 12.5C or below 8.5C

[The PIT]

I think we can rule out 8.5C. Should be close to average by the end of next here at least unless we get more cloud than anticipated.

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 10th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 11th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.8C +0.6C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to the 12th

 

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 5.4C, while maxima look like reaching the low 13s, so a drop to 11.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.4C to the 14th (9.1: -1.8]

11.3C to the 15th (10.0: -0.8]

11.2C to the 16th (9.2: -1.1)

11.1C to the 17th (9.6: -0.5)

11.0C to the 18th (8.7: -1.4)

10.9C to the 19th (10.6: +0.5)

10.9C to the 20th (10.0: +0.2)

10.9C to the 21st (11.3: +1.7)

10.8C to the 22nd (8.9: -1.0)

 

Slightly below average for the next 5 days, then things look like turning a little milder, but not enough to change the CET much.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.6C

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 13th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.4C +0.2C above normal.

[DR Hosking]

11.4 to the 14th

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 14th

 

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited October 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Stu_London]

GFS 06z operational suggests something like 10.6C before adjustments with a few ups and downs along the way.

 

A lot of that is in FI however, so there is plenty of margin for error. In the nearer term, a dip below 11C in the next week looks likely.

[The PIT]

I think we're going to be close to the final figure now in Sheffield. GFS doesnt suggest any massive changes in temps and any ups will be canceled by the downs. So close to average here by the look of things at the moment.

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.3C.

Edited October 15, 2015 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to the 15th

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited October 17, 2015 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

A minimum today of 8.6C and maxima likely to reach the low 13s means we'll probably stay on 11.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.1C to the 17th (9.6: -0.5)

11.1C to the 18th (10.6: +0.5)

11.1C to the 19th (11.1: +1.1)

11.0C to the 20th (10.2: +0.4)

11.1C to the 21st (11.5: +1.9)

11.1C to the 22nd (11.1: +1.2)

11.1C to the 23rd (12.1: +2.5)

11.1C to the 24th (12.1: +2.7)

11.2C to the 25th (11.5: +2.1)

 

 

The recent cool spell looks like coming to an end this weekend, with mild conditions forecast for the foreseeable future.

 

At this stage, I think we can rule out anything above 12C and below 9C after corrections.