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Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015


Allseasons-Si

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Latest forecast wind speeds for tonight,

 

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And Thursday morning,

 

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I have looked around the gust map on the Met Office site and it seems in the North West of Scotland the peak gust will be 72 mph around 4am on Thursday,

 

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Updated warning from this morning,

 

Southwesterly winds will strengthen to gale or severe gale force in the early hours of Thursday morning, before veering westerly during the day. Gusts will reach 55-65 mph quite widely within the warning area, while over Orkney and the North Coast of Sutherland and Caithness, they may reach around 70 mph for a time. The gales will gradually ease from the west during the afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The latest NMM4 wind gust charts for overnight into Thursday, gusts in excess of 60mph lasting into Thursday evening before moderating slowly from the west. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Wind picking up in the NW with Loch Glascarnoch recording a gust of 66mph. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Pretty large waves being churned up with this depression.

 

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Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland

well i was late for the first time ever, ,our neighbor thought a marquee would be a good idea on top of a hill ,and it is completely across the road and blocking the track so had to walk the couple of miles to work and home again she's waiting for the wind to die down to untangle it any idea when  ,i'll have to find some weather links for evanton ,i knew all of them for the isle of lewis ,hope the isles are fairing ok 

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well i was late for the first time ever, ,our neighbor thought a marquee would be a good idea on top of a hill ,and it is completely across the road and blocking the track so had to walk the couple of miles to work and home again she's waiting for the wind to die down to untangle it any idea when  ,i'll have to find some weather links for evanton ,i knew all of them for the isle of lewis ,hope the isles are fairing ok

a marquee on top of a hill on Lewis ,are they nuts !!!
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Posted
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland

no we used to live in lewis surprised the weather made me late as 14 years of lewis storms never did ,i need to find a live weather station for the area , :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

well i was late for the first time ever, ,our neighbor thought a marquee would be a good idea on top of a hill ,and it is completely across the road and blocking the track so had to walk the couple of miles to work and home again she's waiting for the wind to die down to untangle it any idea when  ,i'll have to find some weather links for evanton ,i knew all of them for the isle of lewis ,hope the isles are fairing ok 

Seems a sensible idea in a gale...  :cc_confused:  

 

They obviously don't follow/watch the weather then?! 

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Didn't want to post this in the MOD discussion as I'm nowhere near knowledgeable enough to go on there - I lurk quietly, learning as I go. What I have gathered from there is that it is extremely difficult to forecast what will happen over the next few days to a week given the conflicting variables of jet stream, Atlantic and Pacific behaviours. Matt Taylor http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/34599904 gives a good representation of this uncertainty in his forecast for the week ahead. Where will that potential low go? Right over the UK, or down here to us in France/Spain/Portugal (it could go all three places because of its sheer size)? Time will tell - but interesting times ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

On latest model guidance it looks like the deep low will begin to fill rapidly as it approaches our shores and stall close to western Ireland and then die a death. It may slip further south and affect NW France but it will be a very weak feature by then. I don't think this low is anything to worry about at the beginning of next week. 

 

GFS 12z SLP for Sunday to Tuesday.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Very disturbed ECM 12z run with the Atlantic powering up, although no direct hit for the UK shown. 

 

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Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Very disturbed ECM 12z run with the Atlantic powering up, although no direct hit for the UK shown. 

 

attachicon.gifecm20.gifattachicon.gifecm21.gifattachicon.gifecm22.gif

 

Here's the 180 hour wind chart showing 40 to 50 mph mean wind speeds for the worst hit areas mainly in the North. Like you say not a direct hit,

 

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Both the GEM and CMA also show some unsettled weather around that time as well,

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Yes, quite a beast sitting out west of the UK with a very tight gradient down the western side of the depression with storm force winds. 

 

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Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The very quiet autumn continues here I've only averaged the wind speeds since 2002 but it's quietest Autumn in this period. The leaves will falling off due to boredom soon. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Yep, looks very windy for a time over parts of Ireland and western Scotland during the early hours of Saturday.

 

GFS

 

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NetWx-MR

 

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the small windy spell that looks to effect Cornwall/Devon tonight along the southern areas....50+mph gusts maybe reaching near 60mph unexposed areas, it wasn't even mentioned on bbc

Trees are still in leaf so I'm surprised there wasn't a mention at least as that's strong enough to bring branches down when in leaf

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the small windy spell that looks to effect Cornwall/Devon tonight along the southern areas....50+mph gusts maybe reaching near 60mph unexposed areas, it wasn't even mentioned on bbc

Trees are still in leaf so I'm surprised there wasn't a mention at least as that's strong enough to bring branches down when in leaf

 

60mph is probably pushing it, certainly some 50mph gusts possible in the most exposed spots.

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