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Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

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I see there is no thread for this yet so i would start one as it's Autumn

 

this week is looking Autumninal to say the least,if you have any loose objects around the garden,then it's time to batten them down :D

 

met office now have a warning out for the south tomorrow for wind

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1442098800

 

please continue your thoughts here this upcoming Autumn :D

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It's been quite a long time since we last seen a September storm. It's normally a dry and mostly anticyclonic month. I think this could be the first notable wind event in September since ex-hurricane Katia in September 2011...

 

attachicon.gifGusts.png

 

Gusts of 40-50 mph along the South Coast.

 

Yep,lets get all this wild weather out of the way early and then start looking at a snowy winter,that is my hopes anyway :D

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Regarding the "Tropical Storm" What Kind Of Impact Do We Expect For The Uk? 

 

As far as I'm aware, the impact will be pretty minimal. If you weren't told about it, you'd just think that it was a normal gloomy Autumn rainy day with a stiff breeze. The Tropical Storm itself barely edged the Tropical Storm threshold (sustained winds >40mph) and the whole thing dissipated on Friday! The media have made a lot of fuss over nothing here...

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FI yes but it looks like we could be about to enter a much more unsettled period of weather through next week as our high gradually gives way to lower pressure. The settled weather has been nice but I'd like something more exciting pretty soon... 

 

This chart from tonight's ECM caught my eye...  :D

 

post-9615-0-83417200-1445021991_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

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Just over a week away, some pretty disturbed charts on the 12z GFS. Looks like the worst would stay out over the Atlantic at this stage. 

 

post-9615-0-93125100-1445108989_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-31849100-1445108996_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-71549800-1445109006_thumb.pn

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Anything is better than the grey muck we have had for the last week.

Must be one of the quietest autumn's on record so far.

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yeah keeping my eye on this weeks storming conditions. Keep the updates coming they are essential viewing 

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Tuesday night looks to be the start of it. Here's what the ECM shows for mean wind speeds on Tuesday night. The Met Office are going for gusts ranging from 30 to 40 mph across most of Scotland especially in the North West while the Western Isles up to 48 mph gusts.

 

post-6686-0-37416900-1445211106_thumb.pn

 

The next spell of windy weather for Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be much stronger this time and more widespread. Although Scotland will see the worst of the winds Ireland, Northern England and parts of Northern Wales will also get some of it to. The models still disagree on the positioning of the low at the moment but seem to predict similar wind speeds. Mean speeds across exposed Western and Northern parts of Scotland look to be around 30 to 40 mph and some places a bit higher with gusts of 50 to 60 mph as well.

 

GFS shows that this strong low pressure system could possibly bring severe wind speeds as 70 mph gusts are shown for Northern Scotland on Thursday,

 

post-6686-0-33640700-1445211948_thumb.pn

 

Something to keep a watch on for sure in the coming days.

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Sigh....it looks like the usual gales and storms will be affecting northern area's as per usual so far....

 

It's been pretty dry in the south all in so I am looking forward to a proper english gale/storm, there's nothing so far in the models that I can see....

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Wednesday night into Thursday morning not looking quite so bad on the 00z run, still likely very windy with gusts around 50-60mph or so for central & northern Scotland. 

 

Should help the trees shed some leaves anyway with the first real blow of the autumn. 

 

post-9615-0-73844400-1445241023_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-31261700-1445241029_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-65573600-1445241035_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-15747200-1445241044_thumb.pn  

 

Met Office wind gusts early hours of Thursday,

 

post-9615-0-76826500-1445242621_thumb.pn

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Just seen the GEM for next Monday, eye opener! But it's the GEM and it's a week away... So little faith on this one! If anything like this came off then it would cause all sorts of problems bringing storm force winds. 

 

post-9615-0-26667200-1445243345_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-89541800-1445243350_thumb.pn

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Hopefully a stormy November to February period is just around the corner. That's what I want. A winter with a fair few Atlantic storms interpersed with the odd mild and sunny high pressure spell (ala February 1998), and the odd thunderstorm for good measure. :)

this is what i would like too ,i will not gain many likes for this but I dont care if I never see frost, ice and snow ever again,  after the dec2010 sickner

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18c here today in Limousin, France, but quite windy. I'm happy for this to go on and on and on...looking very like 2014 here, settled and mild, C'est bon...

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Yes extremely quiet autumn and no sign of that changing on the latest gfs.

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Should hit 60 mph during next few days across western Isles

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Yes it'll be a tad blowy up your way in the coming days Cookie. A noticeable breeze further south compared to recently. 

 

Tuesday night then Wednesday night, from the NMM12.

 

post-9615-0-88319100-1445292164_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-75104000-1445292170_thumb.pn

 

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Windy weather for the North West and Northern Scotland for this evening and tonight,

 

9pm Mean speeds around 26 to 32 mph with gusts ranging from 40 to 48 mph,

 

post-6686-0-54784400-1445352000_thumb.pn

 

Through the night the highest wind speeds will be over Northern parts with 32 mph and gusts of 52 mph,

 

post-6686-0-12858700-1445352671_thumb.pn

 

The first storm of Autumn is set to arrive on Wednesday night into Thursday morning the Met Office have a yellow warning out for this covering the West and North of Scotland,

 

post-6686-0-49062200-1445352811_thumb.pn

 

Southwesterly winds will strengthen to gale or severe gale force in the early hours of Thursday morning, before veering westerly during the day. Gusts will reach 55-65 mph quite widely within the warning area, while over Orkney and the North Coast of Sutherland and Caithness, they may reach around 70 mph for a time. The gales will gradually ease from the west during the afternoon.

 

Late Wednesday night looks to have 40 to 60 mph gusts across the West and North of Scotland,

 

post-6686-0-15231600-1445353382_thumb.pn

 

Early Thursday morning gusts mostly between 55 to 65 mph,

 

post-6686-0-76580300-1445353895_thumb.pn

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NMM4 wind gust charts overnight Wednesday into Thursday, pretty windy from N Wales northwards with gusts around 40mph or so and the strongest winds affecting western and northern Scotland, gusting 50-60mph and possibly higher in some locations. Many trees will be losing their nice autumn colours as the leaves get ripped off. 

 

post-9615-0-66118700-1445353920_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-14813500-1445353926_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-93150000-1445353934_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-70777400-1445353939_thumb.pn

 

 

Breezy/windy tonight as well but the main feature will be the wet weather moving south and east. 

 

post-9615-0-87482500-1445354384_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-33740300-1445354390_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-30584100-1445354396_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-46707900-1445354402_thumb.pn

 

Weather watch issued by Jo for the incoming gales.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=1;sess=6a187a02526636c32e51958568fa01bf

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Just seen the GEM for next Monday, eye opener! But it's the GEM and it's a week away... So little faith on this one! If anything like this came off then it would cause all sorts of problems bringing storm force winds. 

 

attachicon.gifgem1.pngattachicon.gifgem2.png

I hope this happens!

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