White Christmas 2018

[Nick L]

15 minutes ago, joggs said:

To me,this has got to be a tongue in cheek thread!!!!?!

How can anyone follow this thread until a couple of wk out from Xmas?

It's become a copy-and-paste tradition from the clickbait page on TWO. I don't think anyone genuinely takes it seriously...well, I hope not!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 hours ago, cheese said:

The latter is a better explanation. 2004 was mostly a western UK thing, CreweCold's post on another thread of Cheshire Gap snow showers says everything - we don't benefit from NW winds for the most part. We had NW winds in the second half of December 2010 and got 2cm at most. 

2004 very good here

[sundog]

What ever the weather has in store for us this Xmas at least the month of Dec will surely be colder then last dec. At least that is a starting point for those hoping for a white Xmas this year lol.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, sundog said:

What ever the weather has in store for us this Xmas at least the month of Dec will surely be colder then last dec. At least that is a starting point for those hoping for a white Xmas this year lol.

December last year was just ridiculous - a CET of 9.7, which was 4.6c above the 71/00 average, or 5.1c above the 61-90 average. It's one of those records that is so far out of the ball park, it might never be beaten. I've got a feeling that all this warm weather globally is going to lead to another stormy winter. I know La Nina is expected this year compared to a strong Nino last, but I think some very tight thermal gradients will be shown again. After such a low point last year though, it can't get any worse.

[Richard Taylor]

We've had the odd White Christmas down the years

[DAVID SNOW]

6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

December last year was just ridiculous - a CET of 9.7, which was 4.6c above the 71/00 average, or 5.1c above the 61-90 average. It's one of those records that is so far out of the ball park, it might never be beaten. I've got a feeling that all this warm weather globally is going to lead to another stormy winter. I know La Nina is expected this year compared to a strong Nino last, but I think some very tight thermal gradients will be shown again. After such a low point last year though, it can't get any worse.

At the moment its looking more like ENSO neutral for the rest of the year, so no La Nina after the mega El Nino , add that to the mix for a forecast for xmas day!

[Frost HoIIow]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

December last year was just ridiculous - a CET of 9.7, which was 4.6c above the 71/00 average, or 5.1c above the 61-90 average. It's one of those records that is so far out of the ball park, it might never be beaten. I've got a feeling that all this warm weather globally is going to lead to another stormy winter. I know La Nina is expected this year compared to a strong Nino last, but I think some very tight thermal gradients will be shown again. After such a low point last year though, it can't get any worse.

According to the CET history 33 May's have been colder than last December! that's how void last December was for cold. Incredible given May has much more daylight and the sun is a lot stronger.

Edited September 5, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[username home]

Prediction time.....

15th October - Daily Express to run it's annual Snowmageddon story 

 

[cheese]

5 hours ago, username home said:

Prediction time.....

15th October - Daily Express to run it's annual Snowmageddon story 

 

They're already running a 2017 End of The World/Apocalypse story so I'm afraid we won't be around for much longer anyway.

[Nick L]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

They're already running a 2017 End of The World/Apocalypse story so I'm afraid we won't be around for much longer anyway.

But the Express said that leaving the EU meant that we'll all be shiny happy people holding hands?

[B87]

My Xmas prediction for here:

Xmas eve: 11c, sunny

Xmas day: 9c, cloudy

Boxing day: 8c cloudy

 

NYE: 8c, cloudy

New Years Day: 7c, sunny

A very average festive period.

 

[Weather-history]

On 4 September 2016 at 08:51, Weather-history said:

 

4 Christmas Days with snow on ground in last 21 years: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010.

As I mentioned in the approach to Easter this year. Snow falling more often at Easter than Christmas doesn't hold true around this area over recent years. I have never seen snow on the ground on Easter Day morning in the last 31 years.

The only years I have seen falling snow on Easter Day were in 1998 and 2008. 

Edited September 6, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Dami]

It will rain on xmas day, cos it can and because it will remind us that 10 degrees lower it would be snow.

[weirpig]

Mild Christmas but a cold feburary.  only 4 months to wait what could go wrong.

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

As I mentioned in the approach to Easter this year. Snow falling more often at Easter than Christmas doesn't hold true around this area over recent years. I have never seen snow on the ground on Easter Day morning in the last 31 years.

The only years I have seen falling snow on Easter Day were in 1998 and 2008. 

We had about 3 inches of snow at Easter 2008, the picture below was taken in Droylsden about a mile or so to my south. Looks like they had a similar amount, nearly all of it melted by lunchtime when the strengthening late March sun came out. Other than that white xmas's have been more common in the past 12 years.

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Mild Christmas but a cold feburary.  only 4 months to wait what could go wrong.

It can still all change

 

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

We had about 3 inches of snow at Easter 2008, the picture below was taken in Droylsden about a mile or so to my south. Looks like they had a similar amount, nearly all of it melted by lunchtime when the strengthening late March sun came out. Other than that white xmas's have been more common in the past 12 years.

 

The sun always turns up when it isn't wanted.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, B87 said:

My Xmas prediction for here:

Xmas eve: 11c, sunny

Xmas day: 9c, cloudy

Boxing day: 8c cloudy

 

NYE: 8c, cloudy

New Years Day: 7c, sunny

A very average festive period.

 

not bad I'd say, but for me likely wetter, maybe wetter London too, but nothing like here

[stewfox]

7 hours ago, B87 said:

My Xmas prediction for here:

Xmas eve: 11c, sunny

Xmas day: 9c, cloudy

Boxing day: 8c cloudy

 

NYE: 8c, cloudy

New Years Day: 7c, sunny

A very average festive period.

 

My predictions based on forums past.

First T360 chart re cold weather sept 22nd

First winters over post Nov 6th

First IMBY post Nov 22nd (cold related)

First you cant predict xmas day debate 27 Nov

First weather model melt down (500 users +) Nov 29 at the start of the long hard winter

First it doesn't compare post Dec 12

 

Also tea leave guide

These are Maximums

xmas eve -1.4c  Light snow

Christmas day 0c heavy snow

Boxing Day -1c light snow

New years eve 0c heavy snow

[Dancerwithwings]

Nice Stew Fox .....First "BANK" of the season for me and yes! it ain't even winter yet....now where's that tea 

[stewfox]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Nice Stew Fox .....First "BANK" of the season for me and yes! it ain't even winter yet....now where's that tea 

I haven't added how many 'experts' return to the model forum , 209

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

Our second update this year suggests an increased chance of snow in both the north and south but still keeps a green Christmas as the most likely outcome. Since the first update seasonal forecasting models have offered more evidence for a 'front loaded winter'. If this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 2, 17/09/2016

The computer says [Issued 17/09/2016 16:11:45]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

Snow is expected in Wales

Snow is expected in the Midlands

Snow is expected in the north

Snow is expected in Scotland

Snow is expected in Northern Ireland

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland

Cold conditions in the Netherlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

Our third update makes no change to the chance of snow with a green Christmas considered the most likely outcome away from high ground in the north. Since the last update seasonal forecasting models have offered more evidence for a 'front loaded winter'. If this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 3, 24/09/2016

The computer says [Issued 25/09/2016 11:24:16]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Nick L]

"Our third update hit here on the dartboard"

[lassie23]

I predict a BBQ christmas, what's turkey like on a BBQ

[Dami]

It's really not much to ask, some snow Xmas eve evening, just a few flurries and maybe one or two next day. Not asking for 5 foot just a few flurries. Or when we go out to see santa, the most it managed to do was give us a grey cloudy sky.