White Christmas 2018

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

I think this is partly my reason for having mor colds this winter. Mild weather seems to be the culprit. 

Could be wrong though lol. 

I find it the other way, warm weather less chance of colds, frost seems to increase colds, and goes away slower if cold, quicker if mild

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I find it the other way, warm weather less chance of colds, frost seems to increase colds, and goes away slower if cold, quicker if mild

Perhaps this has been my problem this year. My girlfriend has pneumonia, which developed from a cough 3 weeks ago, and all my office have a cold of some sort.

The very cold weather of last week with the windchill probably made things worse. Using the London Undergound system, which involves going from hot to cold, then to hot again doesn’t help matters.

[Aleman]

My kids' school had a very contagious vomiting bug that quickly went through a high percentage last month but cold and flu activity has been very low this year, I'm pleased to say. Likewise for the school where my other half works.

I suspect rain/snow pushes the spread of bugs as much as or more than the cold - whatever forces everyone indoors and closes windows the most.

 

Influenza- like activity progression so far this season is low in the UK and across the Northern Hemisphere. That is around the average level which is normally sees things kick up in the next few weeks. There are signs of some increase in southeast Asia. Although early outbreaks all seem to be in care homes, this is fairly normal (poor ventilation?) and UK hospital admissions are much lower than last season which was bad and started early. Vaccinations rates are running lower than previous years but catching up as the season progresses.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/764484/Weekly_report_national_influenza_report_week_50_2018.pdf

So it does not look likely that we'll all be wiped out by Spanish Flu this winter - a topic that was circulated in media around the start of the vaccination season.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Aleman

[Summer Sun]

No chance of a white Christmas if ECM is right

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No chance of a white Christmas if ECM is right

BBQ Christmas?!

[Norrance]

12 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, suppose depends where, south definitely, but Scotland maybe not, Xmas will have westerlies, Easter most likely northerlies/easterlies

My records certainly show more snowy Christmas’s  than Easter’s this century by some way if  counting lying snow rather than falling only. Historically not so much. If falling snow is the benchmark then about equal or slightly more at Easter.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Norrance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Norrance said:

My records certainly show more snowy Christmas’s  than Easter’s this century by some way if  counting lying snow rather than falling only. Historically not so much. If falling snow is the benchmark then about equal or slightly more at Easter.

imagine so up there, cold zonal can deliver

[Aleman]

US looks like a big wintery system will sweep across from the 25th over a few days but UK not looking cold enough to turn our frontal weather into Christmas snow.    Still, recent swings from mild and wet to sunny and cool look to be making the grass grow a touch and I have seen snowdrop shoots a couple of cm high and our neighbour's magnolia has some fat green leaf buds on that look ready to burst. A bit of Christmas snow is nice but early hints of spring are better

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

US looks like a big wintery system will sweep across from the 25th over a few days but UK not looking cold enough to turn our frontal weather into Christmas snow.    Still, recent swings from mild and wet to sunny and cool look to be making the grass grow a touch and I have seen snowdrop shoots a couple of cm high and our neighbour's magnolia has some fat green leaf buds on that look ready to burst. A bit of Christmas snow is nice but early hints of spring are better

Early hints of spring are just annoying at this time, because we will end up getting worse weather between now and the end of February. I would hope for some cold frosty seasonal weather with crisp sunny days, between now and late winter. 

Even if we don’t get snow, cold and sunny is the next best thing for me.

[Summer Sun]

Update 22 reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered below normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

The major medium range deterministic computer models are predicting a green Christmas for most of the UK. Ensembles also off strong support for that outcome, however there is a chance of high pressure bringing frost.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:7%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 4%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[damianslaw]

Preety woeful this year - chance of snow, not even Scottish mountains look like seeing a snowflake, thanks to high pressure nosing in from the south - if we had a more mobile flow, there would be a chance at least. This is looking like a mostly snow free December even on the fells - very non-festive.. roll on January!

[Summer Sun]

Update 23: A green Christmas is called. The only place in the UK where seeing falling snow on December 25th remains a realistic possibility is the Scottish Highlands. Even there it is considered unlikely.

The reason for this is:

The major medium range deterministic computer models are predicting a green Christmas for most of the UK. Ensembles also off strong support for that outcome, however there is a chance of high pressure bringing frost.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

The last Christmas forecast of the year is online with an added bonus of our Xmas playlist 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

Merry Christmas!!

[cheeky_monkey]

will be a white Xmas here ..snow forecast 10-20 cm could fall tomorrow.

[iapennell]

No snow for Christmas. Not even a chance of frost on Christmas morning at 420 metres up in the North Pennines. High pressure retreating south, rapidly falling pressure to the north-west and a freshening south- westerly. Was a lovely clear day but with a rising wind from a maritime tropical direction you can't expect freezing temperatures even on the northern fells!

We have this problem every year. See my post on the Ferrel Westerlies (and how we might minimise them), they are at the root cause of our lack of decent Christmas cold!

Have a Happy "Green Christmas".

[Don]

Hi Ian.  Good to see you post again!  Any thoughts for January and February?

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Hi Ian.  Good to see you post again!  Any thoughts for January and February?

mild and wet for the rest of winter, as for christmas, i have more chance of being hit by a stray kebab than snow today

[Don]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

mild and wet for the rest of winter, as for christmas, i have more chance of being hit by a stray kebab than snow today

Right, Canada here I come!

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Right, Canada here I come!

i was planning on going to sibera lol

[Wimbledon88]

Greetings from a cold snowy Kiev. 

-5 just now. 

[Summer Sun]

Update 5: Slightly increased chance.

A quarter of the way there already! The fifth update makes a slight increase to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south. 

The latest considerations are:

September weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have become established and there are signs of high pressure building to the north and west of the UK.

Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast