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White Christmas 2018


Stuart

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  • 8 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The first update for Christmas 2016 is here

Quote

 

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

Our first update this year suggests a green Christmas is the most likely outcome in most of the UK. The decline of the El Nino event may increase the chances of early colder spells but seasonal forecast models still suggest above average temperatures are more likely than below average ones during the early part of the winter. Therefore, update one suggests an Atlantic based pattern is the most probable set-up and this would restrict the chance of snow to high ground in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued
Update 1, 03/09/2016

The computer says [Issued 03/09/2016 11:26:47]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

I wouldn't expect a white christmas. With global warming 'n all this "Above Average" "Above Average Rain" really hits hard on the prospects.

agree with that, think everyone knows it won't be a white Xmas away from mountains oop norf

my Xmas prediction, wet and windy, full on zonal, gales and flooding possible, 12° for most of the south, 8° much of the north

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Ah and so the annual fishing for clicks from TWO begins, the hallmark of September!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

To be fair you're never going to get a prediction for a white Christmas this far out, at least not above 50%. Even in early December such a prediction would be a very bold one. And in response to BREIFMAN11 I don't think our chances of obtaining a White Christmas have reduced very much, judging by the fact that they're rare in the UK regardless. After all  despite milder Winters on average over the last 30 or so years December is the one month during that season which has generally resisted warming (2015 excepted). Also by any measure I have only seen any White Christmases since the turn of the New Millennium and I was born in 1985. These were of course 2001 (brief snow shower), 2004 (snow falling and settling), 2009 (residual patches) and of course 2010 (the best i've yet seen with deep snow cover but of course none falling that day). That was only nearly 6 years ago and even 2014 came pretty close with wet snowfall on the evening of Boxing Day (nearly 2 years ago). So in that sense despite milder Winters so far overall, 21st century white Christmases are so far much more common than they were during the 20th century, when from what I can tell were much less frequent. As for this Christmas statistically as always it's improbable it will snow, but you never know (not at the moment at least) and there's no harm in dreaming as I always do.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I've experienced 2 White Christmases in the UK, and I was born in 1987. They're just not common at all. Very rare if anything.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
10 hours ago, cheese said:

I've experienced 2 White Christmases in the UK, and I was born in 1987. They're just not common at all. Very rare if anything.

As rare as thunder on Christmas Day? Never heard one thunder clap on Christmas Day.

4 Christmas Days with snow on ground in last 21 years: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
20 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

As rare as thunder on Christmas Day? Never heard one thunder clap on Christmas Day.

4 Christmas Days with snow on ground in last 21 years: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010.

Based on the last 21 years that gives us a near 20% chance, better than TWO

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

and off we go

 

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

Our first update this year suggests a green Christmas is the most likely outcome in most of the UK. The decline of the El Nino event may increase the chances of early colder spells but seasonal forecast models still suggest above average temperatures are more likely than below average ones during the early part of the winter. Therefore, update one suggests an Atlantic based pattern is the most probable set-up and this would restrict the chance of snow to high ground in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued
Update 1, 03/09/2016

The computer says [Issued 04/09/2016 10:33:19]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

Snow is expected in Wales

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands

Cold conditions in the north are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
14 hours ago, cheese said:

I've experienced 2 White Christmases in the UK, and I was born in 1987. They're just not common at all. Very rare if anything.

I guess that's indicative of how dry your area is given the number of white Christmases since then? Or maybe the fact that a number of them have come from Atlantic sourced weather means you're area hasn't benefited?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, vizzy2004 said:

image.png

Looking cold and frosty. :cold:

It will be a very long winter if you are already looking at what ONE day in December MIGHT turn out to be!

Don't let me spoil your fun though but please do not take outputs by any model at this time scale other than with large doses of salt.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Netweather members celebrate when a white christmas finally arrives-

doubting_thomas_snow1.jpg

:rofl::drunk-emoji:

31 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It will be a very long winter if you are already looking at what ONE day in December MIGHT turn out to be!

Don't let me spoil your fun though but please do not take outputs by any model at this time scale other than with large doses of salt.

Need a truck full of salt John. Don't forget the CFS is the most accurate model :pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

:rofl::drunk-emoji:

Need a truck full of salt John. Don't forget the CFS is the most accurate model :pardon:

I like a bit of humour

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
9 hours ago, MP-R said:

I guess that's indicative of how dry your area is given the number of white Christmases since then? Or maybe the fact that a number of them have come from Atlantic sourced weather means you're area hasn't benefited?

The latter is a better explanation. 2004 was mostly a western UK thing, CreweCold's post on another thread of Cheshire Gap snow showers says everything - we don't benefit from NW winds for the most part. We had NW winds in the second half of December 2010 and got 2cm at most. 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
9 hours ago, MP-R said:

I guess that's indicative of how dry your area is given the number of white Christmases since then? Or maybe the fact that a number of them have come from Atlantic sourced weather means you're area hasn't benefited?

Wasn't a huge amount but had about 3 inches of snow here on xmas day 2004. Then had snow cover laying on xmas 2009 & 2010.........three white xmas's in 6 years ain't bad going. But now gone almost 6 years without!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Nothing will ever beat Christmas 2010 for me. Didn't have a technical white Christmas, but several inches of snow on the ground, maximum -6c, minimum -12c and glorious sunshine throughout the day. Perfick. 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

To me,this has got to be a tongue in cheek thread!!!!?!

How can anyone follow this thread until a couple of wk out from Xmas?

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