White Christmas 2018

[Summer Sun]

Update 15 reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered close to normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

1) Christmas is now just coming into the range of ensemble forecast models such as the GEFS. At the present time most runs are showing changeable and not particularly cold weather. Nonetheless there is plenty of time for things to change.

2) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.

3) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter. 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:16%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Aleman]

Meteociel snow map currently showing snow for 24th and 25th for parts of North and West.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=16&carte=1

 

[Jo Farrow]

Still two weeks away. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9299-will-it-be-a-white-christmas-this-year-odds-for-christmas-day-snow-2018 

[Aleman]

Still got snow for the eastern half of the UK for 24th and 25th!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=16&ech=204&carte=1

[Summer Sun]

I wouldn't be rushing to the bookies to bet on a white Christmas in London yet. Maybe cities in Scotland will stand a slightly better chance

 

[Summer Sun]

Update 19 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered close to normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

1) The GEFS ensemble shows a typical split with snow more likely in the northern half of the UK.

2) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.

3) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter. 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update 19 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered close to normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

1) The GEFS ensemble shows a typical split with snow more likely in the northern half of the UK.

2) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.

3) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter. 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

I'm going for sunny 10c

[sparky1972]

my own xmas day weather forecast for imby will be sunny spells, and a pleasent feeling 12c, reading the Model thread and lloking at the forecasts i think we shall be lucky to see anything in the way of cold this side of the New Year, just a hunch,  and a £10 bet with the wife that this will be our second snowless winter in 3 years.

Edited December 16, 2018 by sparky1972

[Sunny76]

Another boring Christmas weatherwise. 

I want a 2009 or 2010 cold dry frosty one. I’m sure we will have one eventually. 

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

my own xmas day weather forecast for imby will be sunny spells, and a pleasent feeling 12c, reading the Model thread and lloking at the forecasts i think we shall be lucky to see anything in the way of cold this side of the New Year, just a hunch,  and a £10 bet with the wife that this will be our second snowless winter in 3 years.

I was hoping for another 2017/18 winter. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Another boring Christmas weatherwise. 

I want a 2009 or 2010 cold dry frosty one. I’m sure we will have one eventually. 

they were cool here, both with snow on ground, Xmas day 2010 had a max temp of -5.1C

but would prefer one like 2004, perfectly timed toppler, lying snow from 1pm, mind you have noticed northerlies/topplers are nearly always timed for a weekend

Edited December 16, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[I remember Atlantic 252]

poor Xmas on EC, green for probably all of the south, similar to GFS 06Z today

[mountain shadow]

Might as well lock this thread now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Might as well lock this thread now.

Yes green Xmas everywhere this year sigh, even north looking at EC and GFS

[cheese]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes green Xmas everywhere this year sigh, even north looking at EC and GFS

I am 31 years old and only twice have I seen snow on Christmas. It really is exceedingly uncommon.

[Summer Sun]

Update 20 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered close to normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

1) Most of the medium range computer models are predicting a green Christmas for most of the UK.

2) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.

3) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter. 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Mokidugway]

54 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update 20 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered close to normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

1) Most of the medium range computer models are predicting a green Christmas for most of the UK.

2) Since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February there has been an ongoing signal for high pressure blocks to have more influence on the UK's weather than normal. In the late winter and early spring northern blocking led to widespread snow as the Beast from the East made its presence felt. That was followed by one of the warmest (it could turn out to be the warmest once all of the data has been collated) summers on record in the UK due to the persistence of anticyclonic conditions. As we head through the meteorological autumn the elevated signal for high pressure still appears to be present.

3) Some of the latest seasonal model updates are pointing towards a colder than average winter. 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

So basic no chance as one would expect

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

I am 31 years old and only twice have I seen snow on Christmas. It really is exceedingly uncommon.

More chance of snow at Easter than Christmas 

[matt111]

Well I’m 26 and I’ve never seen a proper white Christmas. I can only remember one occasion were I’ve had snow on the ground on Christmas Day and that was only patches left over from a few days before. 

[Weather-history]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

More chance of snow at Easter than Christmas 

Is it?

Snow on Easter Day since 1985 for my general  area: 1998, 2008

Snow on Christmas Day in same period: 1993, 1995, 2000, 2004.

Snow on ground Christmas Day: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010

Snow on ground Easter Day: -

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Is it?

Snow on Easter Day since 1985 for my general  area: 1998, 2008

Snow on Christmas Day in same period: 1993, 1995, 2000, 2004.

Snow on ground Christmas Day: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010

Snow on ground Easter Day: -

 

Apparently so 

Quote

This is not as unusual as you'd first think.

Statistically we're more likely to get snow at Easter rather than Christmas.

Last time we had cold conditions and snowfall over Easter was in 2013.

It looks like March will end up being colder than January.

Last time this happened was 2013 and 1983. It also happened several times in the 1970s and 60s. Unusual but not unheard of.

1

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-03-21/dreaming-of-a-white-easter-more-snow-could-be-on-its-way/

[Wimbledon88]

So it's not going to snow then. 

No surprises there. 

I'm off to Kiev for 5 days over Christmas. Forecast is for - 6c and 'low blowing snow'. They have had a shed load of snow there in the last few days.  

Will beat a drizzly 11c London..... 

[Summer Sun]

Update 21 reduces the chance of a White Christmas in both the south and north. The possibility of snow is considered below normal.

The primary reasons for this are:

The major medium range deterministic computer models are predicting a green Christmas for most of the UK. Ensembles also offer strong support for that outcome, however there is a chance of high pressure bringing frost.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:11%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 6%

The Computer says

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Edited December 18, 2018 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

More chance of snow at Easter than Christmas 

Yes, suppose depends where, south definitely, but Scotland maybe not, Xmas will have westerlies, Easter most likely northerlies/easterlies

[Sunny76]

20 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

So it's not going to snow then. 

No surprises there. 

I'm off to Kiev for 5 days over Christmas. Forecast is for - 6c and 'low blowing snow'. They have had a shed load of snow there in the last few days.  

Will beat a drizzly 11c London..... 

I think this is partly my reason for having mor colds this winter. Mild weather seems to be the culprit. 

Could be wrong though lol.