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Stuart

White Christmas 2018

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Hope Paul don't mind :D

 

TheWeatherOutlook says

The meteorological autumn has only just begun and December 25th is still well over three months away so at this stage it's too early to gauge how the autumn is playing out. Current indications are for a good deal of high pressure dominated weather during September as has often seemed to be the case in the last couple of decades.

Moderate or strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue beyond Christmas and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is expected to be in a westerly phase. Both of these factors are thought to favour milder and more unsettled weather.

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are below normal to the south of Greenland and west of the UK so this could help to reduce the strength of the jet stream which would favour colder and drier spells.

Given the current overview there is little at this stage to suggest a greater than average chance of a White Christmas this year in the UK. In this scenario the best chance of seeing snow would usually be over high ground in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7%

Forecast issued
Update 1, 05/09/2015

The computer says [issued 05/09/2015 16:32:42]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

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Why do they add the Netherlands to the list? Lol

Why do they even bother in the first place far too soon? :D

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miles too early yet, anything now is just a guess, my guess then is, SW winds, dominated by the Atlantic, 10C most of the UK, and rain moving from SW to NE through the day

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The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above.

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Is it me or is that absolute garbage?

How can be it cold and dry for Wales and Midlands, too mild for North but snow for Scotland?

That smacks of computer generated twaddle.

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Is it me or is that absolute garbage?

How can be it cold and dry for Wales and Midlands, too mild for North but snow for Scotland?

That smacks of computer generated twaddle.

Bang on how the hell can Northern Ireland be too mild while 'Cold but dry conditions are expected in Replublic of Ireland' what a load of nonsense TWO is corrupt. :p

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I have more chance of a Terodactyl crapping on my car, than it snowing on Christmas day in London. The last time there was falling snow in the capital was in the 11th century. :D

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Is it me or is that absolute garbage?

How can be it cold and dry for Wales and Midlands, too mild for North but snow for Scotland?

That smacks of computer generated twaddle.

 

 I bet its generated a number of 'hits' for The Weather Outlook???  Clever! :D

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Is it me or is that absolute garbage?

How can be it cold and dry for Wales and Midlands, too mild for North but snow for Scotland?

That smacks of computer generated twaddle.

 

Absolutely. Utter joke of a forecast.

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You guys take everything so seriously! I don't think even TWO take their White Christmas forecasts with any degree of seriousness!

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Considering a green Christmas is much more likely and the norm the percentages should be based on likelihood of a green Christmas.

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Todays update

 

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

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Yes good fun I suppose guessing what might happen on Christmas day, but must take with a pinch of salt. Last year saw a white Boxing Day for some spots, something that came out of the blue and not forecast beyond the 48 hr timeframe, Christmas is notoriously the most fickle time of year, when developments tend to come out of the blue.

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Swallows flying backwards, lots of blackberries, saw a unicorn today.  The planets are alligning and pluto is in uranus.  Gotta be a white Christmas surely!!

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Swallows flying backwards, lots of blackberries, saw a unicorn today.  The planets are alligning and pluto is in uranus.  Gotta be a white Christmas surely!!

The last time all those happened, we had drizzle on Christmas Day :D  but it was torrential. :shok:

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Swallows flying backwards, lots of blackberries, saw a unicorn today.  The planets are alligning and pluto is in uranus.  Gotta be a white Christmas surely!!

Ouch.. that's gotta hurt.

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Ouch.. that's gotta hurt.

Only 500,000,000 miles separate them quite constrained uranus is..

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More chance of thunder and hail probably as was the case pretty recently!

Funny enough, I have never heard thunder on the day itself. Not had a wet Christmas Day for some years either.

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Yup, Christmas Day. Outside temp 10C, miserable  cloud laden skies, heating on full. Swollen bellies slumped on the couch, forced to drink another can of tasteless ale, more turkey and stuffing sandwiches, anyone for more trifle?

Crap TV, time for a bit of fresh evening air and not a snowflake in sight and the sounds of another Coronation Street special drawls to a sad end... thank god some pubs decide to stay open on the special day !

Glad I will be away in the mountains.

 C

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