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White Christmas 2018

Stuart

By Stuart
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
  • Author
Posted

TheWeatherOutlook says

The fourth update suggests a slightly increased chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south. The reasons for this are:

1) Updates to some of the long range anomaly charts which now suggest a higher chance of below average temperatures affecting the UK during the winter months. This may be due to the persistence of below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic.

2) The current lack of activity in the North Atlantic suggesting the possibility of cold periods during the second half of the autumnmixed start to September with temperatures below the Central England Temperature (CET) during the first half of the month. Anecdotal evidence during recent decades suggests warm Septembers are often followed by milder winters bringing less snowfall.

Despite 1 and 2,  moderate or strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue beyond Christmas and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is expected to be in a westerly phase. Both of these factors are thought to favour milder and more unsettled weather, although recent discussion raises uncertainty about the impact of the El Nino.

The temperature anomaly charts possibly indicate colder spells being more likely to come from the north west and north rather than east. This would mean snow is more probable in the northern half of the UK.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%

Forecast issued

Update 4, 10/10/2015

The computer says [issued 10/10/2015 16:10:03]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
  • Snow is expected in the Midlands
  • Snow is expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Snow is expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Spikey M Aficionado

Spikey M

Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex
Posted

In need December 2010 was very festive.

 

What fell on 18/12 was largely still there on Christmas day

That's what every Christmas should look like. Bring back Charles Dickens climate!

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  • 3 weeks later...
WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
Posted

Well im guessing i will have a white christmas..... White sandy christmas..... Off to beach resort in malaysia... But in cali/ vancouver in jan for a month so might see some snowflakes in the hills/ mountains....

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  • 2 weeks later...
shuggee Maestro

shuggee

Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
Posted

Hey, teacher, leave them sprouts alone.

 

I predict a NE'ly and widespread Christmas snow across Eastern UK.

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted (edited)

It's wrong. It's actually 10% chance it won't snow. :cold:  :rofl:  :rofl:

Edited by Dami
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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

I predict a white christmas in lapland

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

There is a 100% chance somewhere in the world will have snow. I shall see it when we track santa on Christmas eve. cheers.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
  • Author
Posted

Today's daily update slightly increases the chance of a White Christmas in the north and the south. The next couple of weeks are expected to bring mostly mild or very mild weather but there are indications that Christmas itself could coincide with a colder interlude. The greatest risk of snow remains over higher ground in the north.

At this stage a green Christmas remains the favoured outcome for most of the UK. Snow remains possible in the north, particularly over high ground.

Daily updates will continue until becomes possible to call the Christmas Day weather.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 19%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Forecast issued
Update 12, 12/12/2015

The computer says [Issued 12/12/2015 09:17:53]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

Cold conditions in the Republic of Ireland are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Latest Santa Shaker update online. Stll not much chance of snow away from the hills of Northern Britain, unless something dramatic happens it's going to be the most consistent forecast yet, has barely changed since November 1st!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Christmas Day is still 12 days away and a lot can happen. Whilst the models are showing very little likelihood of widespread snowfall on the day, we could tap into cold PM air in the north. I remember 2004 and the NW blast on the day. Last year a good case in point some places saw snow on the 26th which came in a zonal atlantic spell, had it been a day earlier..

I just hope for a couple of dry clear days over the Christmas period to get out and about. Last Christmas was ok with a good day on the 28th, but all since 2010 have been woeful in the main for decent walking weather. 2013 was abysmal.. 2011 and 2012 equally wet windy cloudy and mild with no frost. We've been given a raw deal after three great ones in 2008-2010.

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted

I started my roof extension in June, I'm determine to get my white christmas

roof extension.jpg

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Peter H Contributor

Peter H

Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
Posted

White Christmas 2015 ?

Absolutely no chance. I'd put money on it :)

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Early cherry blossom ????

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