White Christmas 2018

[snowray]

I think its a good thing that this October is turning out to be very mild, last year we had Easterlies around about this time and then it turned milder of course, so I'm hoping that the opposite happens this year.

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're well over a third of the way to the big day. The weather is showing some similarities with last autumn and the medium range computer models are hinting at the Polar Vortex being displaced. Another point of note is the growing likelihood of La Nina conditions this winter. Those two factors may lead to an increased chance of cold snaps during the early part of the winter.

Therefore update 7 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Update 7 14/10/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're now almost halfway to the big day. Medium range computer models are now suggesting an increasing likelihood of colder weather developing as we head into November. The old proverb says "If there's ice in November that will bear a duck, The rest of the winter will be sludge and muck." In other words cold conditions in late autumn will be followed by a mild winter. However there is no hard and fast rule. In fact the TWO view is that if November brings below average temperatures the chance of a cold winter is increased.

Therefore update 8 increases the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:16%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Update 8 23/10/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[damianslaw]

Suggest this thread is retitled Christmas 2017, given 2016 has been and gone - can someone change it please. Thanks.

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're now past the halfway mark! The medium range outlook is quite uncertain at the moment. On balance it looks as though high pressure will stay close to southern areas for much of the time but there are signs of a more mobile pattern returning during the second half of November. That would suggest predominantly mild conditions becoming established and possibly continuing into December. However confidence in that outcome is low at the present time and therefore update 9 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:16%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Update 9 28/10/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're now well past the halfway mark! The latest guidance points to quite a changeable mid term outlook. At times it could be quite chilly but it is too early to be sure about how November will play out. High pressure may have more influence than usual and that would suggest an increasing chance of colder spells. That pattern could continue into December but confidence in that outcome is very low at the present time and therefore update 10 makes no change to the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:16%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Update 10 04/11/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Santa's back 

White Christmas Forecast 2017

[Mokidugway]

11 minutes ago, Paul said:

Santa's back 

White Christmas Forecast 2017

I'm showing a 100% chance of Christmas occurring on the 25 th of December 

[Summer Sun]

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data and is updated daily.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Still a long time until Christmas in meteorological terms but the clock is now rapidly ticking. Since our last update the medium range computer models have trended towards a colder outlook and there are signs of quite a blocked weather pattern continuing into December. That leads to an increased chance of cold spells and the potential for snow. Therefore update 11 suggests an increased chance of a white Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:17%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 11%

Update 11 11/11/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast now online. 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

[lassie23]

Never had one in london i don't think.

[damianslaw]

Since 2010, we've had a run of mild sometimes very mild christmas-new year periods in the main. Only 2014 brought a bit of cold wintry weather. 2010 saw the very cold conditions break on the 28th, but it remained preety cold into the New Year.

Hoping we see some cold weather at least during the christmas period. I'd trade a cold end to November for a cold end to December.

[Mokidugway]

Hope there will be snow between 8th and 30 th of January next year .as I'm not here 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Mokidugway

[I remember Atlantic 252]

most westerly period of the year, Mid Dec to Mid Jan, I never expect snow between these dates (south), only the north, mainly high levels as systems move away

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

most westerly period of the year, Mid Dec to Mid Jan, I never expect snow between these dates (south), only the north, mainly high levels as systems move away

Generally, late December is renowned for westerly atlantic stormy conditions. However, I think statistically mid Nov - mid Dec sees more in the way of westerly atlantic weather than mid Dec - mid Jan. 

To have another 2009/2010 would be great..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree too Damian, but Nov the PV never seems fully developed, so we end up with slightly higher pressure

[HafrenLMP1]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

Hoping we see some cold weather at least during the christmas period. I'd trade a cold end to November for a cold end to December.

I agree. I struggle to get into the Festive spirit when it's grey, wet & mild....... even just a bit of frost would suffice..... 

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook says

Five weeks until the big day but that's still a long time in meteorological terms. Since our last update the medium range computer models have backed away from pointing towards a blocked outlook. A spell of unsettled and quite mild weather is looking likely next week. By early December a downward trend in temperatures is shown but it isn't looking particularly cold. Therefore update 12 reduces the chance of a white Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:15%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Update 12 18/11/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Mokidugway]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

TheWeatherOutlook says

Five weeks until the big day but that's still a long time in meteorological terms. Since our last update the medium range computer models have backed away from pointing towards a blocked outlook. A spell of unsettled and quite mild weather is looking likely next week. By early December a downward trend in temperatures is shown but it isn't looking particularly cold. Therefore update 12 reduces the chance of a white Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:15%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Update 12 18/11/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Still think pablo Escobar has more chance of seeing the white stuff 

[Dorsetbred]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

TheWeatherOutlook says

 Therefore update 12 reduces the chance of a white Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Yawn....ever hopeful, glad I don't take their updates to heart...

Seemingly you folks in the east & west still have hope then..

[Summer Sun]

TheWeatherOutlook says

The journey to Christmas Day started at the beginning of September and we're now three-quarters of the way there. During much of the period the weather has been quieter and less unsettled than is normally the case in the autumn. The level of confidence in La Nina conditions continuing through the coming winter has also increased. Both of those factors suggest an increased likelihood of cold periods during the early part of the meteorological winter. Therefore the thirteenth update increases the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:17%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%

Update 13 25/11/2017

Updates are usually weekly.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[damianslaw]

Expect lots of media headlines predicting a white Christmas this year especially given the medium term outlook looks cold with snow. However, for once, I think there would be much credence in their predictions, more so than since 2012. If we do build strong heights to the NE mid-month, these could fend off the atlantic long enough to enable some snow come Christmas.

We will start to ascertain likely developments come the weekend of 16/17 Dec, still 2 weeks to go and lots can change.

This is not a white Christmas prediction, just that I feel the chances of one are much higher than since 2012 - but we know what happened that year, the cold disappeared by mid-month - this month though looks very different.

[Stuart]

this time next week December 25th moves into range of the 16 day computer models. That means daily forecast updates begin and continue until a call can be made on the Christmas weather. At the present time there continue to be signs of colder than average spells of weather between now and the end of the year. Therefore the fourteenth update increases the chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:18%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 13%

Update 14 02/12/2017

Updates are usually weekly.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Stuart

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Expect lots of media headlines predicting a white Christmas this year especially given the medium term outlook looks cold with snow. However, for once, I think there would be much credence in their predictions, more so than since 2012. If we do build strong heights to the NE mid-month, these could fend off the atlantic long enough to enable some snow come Christmas.

We will start to ascertain likely developments come the weekend of 16/17 Dec, still 2 weeks to go and lots can change.

This is not a white Christmas prediction, just that I feel the chances of one are much higher than since 2012 - but we know what happened that year, the cold disappeared by mid-month - this month though looks very different.

This Christmas will be my 43th, I have never seen a white Christmas around where I live , I don't expect one this year

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

This Christmas will be my 43th, I have never seen a white Christmas around where I live , I don't expect one this year

Where are you located? We struck lucky in 2004 and 2010, and the last 2 technical white Christmas days. There have been a number of 25 Dec with snow on the ground but no snow falling, 1993, 2009 fall into the category. I think we had a wintry shower in 2001. 1981 I think may have been a technical white Christmas - a long stretch between 1981 and 2004 mind..