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White Christmas 2018


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And I have covered the bet with Aberdeen at 3s

Good luck.. but you  >>>won't <<<< need it.lol.

                     

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The twelfth update suggests a lower chance of snow this Christmas in both the north and south. Computer model guidance is now pointing towards a more mobile pattern developing during the second week of December and this is expected to bring milder air in from the southwest. As we head towards Christmas a westerly based pattern may become established and in this set-up snow would only be likely over high ground in the north. Nonetheless, it is very important to point out that there remains a lot of time for things to change. Don't write off a White Christmas yet! 

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 12, 01/12/2016

The computer says [Issued 03/12/2016 18:22:27]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

Snow is expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

seems reasonable SS, likely accurate as well, I reckon over Xmas we'll be in a westerly with average temps, not super mild, but snow only for Scottish mountains

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Someone mentioned the other day the last White Christmas in London was 2001 but I certainly can never remember seeing snow on Christmas Day and I'm crazy about the stuff . I've seen snow a few times on my birthday though only two days later the 27th. Can anybody confirm it snowed in London 2001 id be rather peed off if it did although I was 23 then and probably very intoxicated .

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Someone mentioned the other day the last White Christmas in London was 2001 but I certainly can never remember seeing snow on Christmas Day and I'm crazy about the stuff . I've seen snow a few times on my birthday though only two days later the 27th. Can anybody confirm it snowed in London 2001 id be rather peed off if it did although I was 23 then and probably very intoxicated .

2001 was north only, had a very brief slight dusting in the evening, while listening to the 'new' Atlantic 252, non stop rhythm and dance! yeah man!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Given that White Easters are statistically more common than White Christmases and, that March can be an extension of winter (1970, 1975, 1979, 1996 & 2013 to name a few) I am not going to write off an entire season just on the basis of what December 10's GFS and ECM suggest...Get a grip, peeps?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given that White Easters are statistically more common than White Christmases and, that March can be an extension of winter (1970, 1975, 1979, 1996 & 2013 to name a few) I am not going to write off an entire season just on the basis of what December 10's GFS and ECM suggest...Get a grip, peeps?:D

That's a bit of a myth, depending on where you live. Northern England and Scotland are more likely to see a white Christmas than Easter. I believe it's only more likely in  Southern England.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
19 minutes ago, Alexis said:

That's a bit of a myth, depending on where you live. Northern England and Scotland are more likely to see a white Christmas than Easter. I believe it's only more likely in  Southern England.

Very probably - an exaggeration at the very least. It was after all on Anglia TV where I first heard it.:good:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
30 minutes ago, Alexis said:

That's a bit of a myth, depending on where you live. Northern England and Scotland are more likely to see a white Christmas than Easter. I believe it's only more likely in  Southern England.

Actually I think northern England and Scotland are both more likely to see a white Christmas and Easter than southern England. Remember snow isn't too uncommon northern Britain late March well into April, which is when Easter falls. It's much less common in southern Britain by that time. Though whether this translates as northern Britain having more chance of a white Christmas than Easter I'm unsure. It also depends on elevation and proximity to the coast. Also because Easter unlike Christmas doesn't have a set date, there's more room for manoeuvre in terms of likelihood. Therefore the earlier the Easter the more chance of snow. Though because Easter isn't any earlier than late March the north has snow more often this late than the south so the chances there are greater. And because Christmas is well and truly in Winter I believe the south still has a greater chance of seeing snow then than it does by Easter. In fact I think it's probably a bit of a myth for Britain as a whole that white Easter's are more probable than white Christmas's. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
14 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Actually I think northern England and Scotland are both more likely to see a white Christmas and Easter than southern England. Remember snow isn't too uncommon northern Britain late March well into April, which is when Easter falls. It's much less common in southern Britain by that time. Though whether this translates as northern Britain having more chance of a white Christmas than Easter I'm unsure. It also depends on elevation and proximity to the coast. Also because Easter unlike Christmas doesn't have a set date, there's more room for manoeuvre in terms of likelihood. Therefore the earlier the Easter the more chance of snow. Though because Easter isn't any earlier than late March the north has snow more often this late than the south so the chances there are greater. And because Christmas is well and truly in Winter I believe the south still has a greater chance of seeing snow then than it does by Easter. In fact I think it's probably a bit of a myth for Britain as a whole that white Easter's are more probable than white Christmas's. 

^ this. There's a reason why Aberdeen usually becomes the bookies favourite for a White Christmas & I've been lucky enough to see plenty. Equally I recall many consecutive years (parts of the 70s/80s) where it was mild muck on the big day. But for those writing off the entire winter - I've also seen a foot of snow (OK not US/Canadian levels!) in Mar 2006 I think it was, which included the phenomenon thundersnow. Although appreciate my location probably means I have a better chance of seeing any 'late snow' events. But it shows you cannot write off the whole winter this early in the season.    

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The sixteenth update makes no change to the chance of snow this Christmas. Computer model guidance is pointing towards milder conditions in the short term but as we approach Christmas Day two scenarios are currently considered likely:

1) Changeable weather. This would bring a risk of rain at times and with temperatures fluctuating around the average any snow would probably be restricted to high ground in the north. 

2) Settled and dry conditions. This could bring nighttime frosts and chilly conditions through the days but snow would not be expected

Option 1 is considered slightly more probable than option 2. Both suggest a low chance of snow but it is very important to point out there is still time for things to change. Don't write off a White Christmas yet! 

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued
Update 16, 11/12/2016

The computer says [Issued 11/12/2016 14:22:45]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The sixteenth update makes no change to the chance of snow this Christmas. Computer model guidance is pointing towards milder conditions in the short term but as we approach Christmas Day two scenarios are currently considered likely:

1) Changeable weather. This would bring a risk of rain at times and with temperatures fluctuating around the average any snow would probably be restricted to high ground in the north. 

2) Settled and dry conditions. This could bring nighttime frosts and chilly conditions through the days but snow would not be expected

Option 1 is considered slightly more probable than option 2. Both suggest a low chance of snow but it is very important to point out there is still time for things to change. Don't write off a White Christmas yet! 

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued
Update 16, 11/12/2016

The computer says [Issued 11/12/2016 14:22:45]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.

Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

If snow isn't on the Christmas Day menu  I'd prefer option two then.

sooner have a bit of sunshine and morning frost than mild damp dross.

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  • 8 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

We are off for 2017

Quote

TheWeatherOutlook weekly update says

The TWO seasonal forecast headline is for the meteorological autumn to  be milder than average. At this very early stage we expect the most likely scenario is for a mobile weather pattern to continue into early December and quite possibly last until the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather with incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Therefore our initial "forecast" for Christmas Day 2017 suggests a low probability of snow generally, but a higher one in the north than south.   

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7%

The Computer says

  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands
2

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
On 2 September 2017 at 12:17, Summer Sun said:

The computer says

I don't know what it is going to happen so I'll just produced a load of old twaddle. I might have a better idea, a fortnight before  Christmas. OK, Chuck? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

You know it's Autumn when TWO trot out this clickbait garbage. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

You know it's Autumn when TWO trot out this clickbait garbage. 

Poor old TWO, they have to generate the traffic some how.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

my guess is, westerlies, 12° in south, cooler in the north, snow showers Scottish mountains, as good guess as any

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Shouldn't there be a new thread titled white christmas 2017, any discussion about it not relegated to last year's thread, indeed last year's thread was bookended onto 2015 thread.. can this be altered. I'm not advocating any such discussion of the subject its far far far too early..

Its quite pointless predicting what it might do at this range..

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

The second update suggests a marginally increased chance of a White Christmas. The main reason for that is several seasonal model runs have pointed towards cold outbreaks in December. Nonetheless at this very early stage we expect the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern to continue into the early part of winter and possibly last until the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK. Therefore our second update for Christmas Day 2017 suggests a low probability of snow generally, but a higher one in the north than south.   

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Update 2, 09/09/2017

Updates are usually weekly.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Fewer than 100 days until December 25th! Nonetheless that's still an enormously long time in weather terms. At this stage the seasonal models are generally forecasting above average temperatures this December. That suggests a low likelihood of snow at Christmas but remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Therefore the third update makes no change to the chance of snow on Christmas Day 2017. We continue to think the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern continuing for much of December and possibly lasting through the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Update 3, 16/09/2017

Updates are usually weekly.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Time is flying by and we've now reached the astronomical autumn. At this stage most of the seasonal models are  forecasting above average temperatures this December, however recent updates of the CFSv2 are hinting at high latitude blocking which would increase the chance of cold spells. On balance the likelihood of snow at Christmas remains low but remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Therefore the fourth update suggests a fractionally increased chance of snow on Christmas Day 2017. We continue to think the most likely outcome is for a mobile pattern continuing for much of December and possibly lasting through the Christmas period. That suggests predominantly unsettled weather. Incursions of colder air more likely in the north of the UK.  

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:15%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Update 4, 23/09/2017

Updates are usually weekly.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're now over 25% of the way to the big day! Recent weather conditions have been mixed and the Central England Temperatures (CET) for September has finished very close to the average. October is starting on an unsettled note but there are signs of drier and more benign spells developing at times. Some similarities with recent autumns may be emerging. In addition the latest seasonal model updates continue to favour a milder than average winter but their skill level (accuracy) for the UK is still low.

Therefore update 5 suggests a slightly reduced chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:12%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Update 5 30/09/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're already a third of the way to the big day. How time flies. The weather is now starting to show some similarities with last autumn. It looks like the jet stream across the North Atlantic may be slow to get into gear again. Another point of note is the increasing likelihood of La Nina conditions this winter. Those two factors may lead to an increased chance of cold snaps during the early part of the winter.

Therefore update 6 suggests an increased chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Update 6 07/10/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
20 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

TheWeatherOutlook says

Our Christmas updates started at the beginning of September and we're already a third of the way to the big day. How time flies. The weather is now starting to show some similarities with last autumn. It looks like the jet stream across the North Atlantic may be slow to get into gear again. Another point of note is the increasing likelihood of La Nina conditions this winter. Those two factors may lead to an increased chance of cold snaps during the early part of the winter.

Therefore update 6 suggests an increased chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK.

But please remember:

1) There is a long time for things to change

2) Even during milder than average winter months cold snaps can bring snow

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire:14%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Update 6 07/10/2017

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

And the Computer says"it will only snow in the Midlands":rofl:

C.S

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