White Christmas 2018

[gsteruk]

Lol everyone is fine with long range forecasts or guesses (as lets face it they all are) for anything other than winter,as soon as winter gets mentioned everyones panties automatically start bunching lol

[cheese]

Yup, Christmas Day. Outside temp 10C, miserable  cloud laden skies, heating on full. Swollen bellies slumped on the couch, forced to drink another can of tasteless ale, more turkey and stuffing sandwiches, anyone for more trifle?

Crap TV, time for a bit of fresh evening air and not a snowflake in sight and the sounds of another Coronation Street special drawls to a sad end..

And I wouldn't have it any other way. That's the Christmas I've come to love over the years and anything else just doesn't feel the same. Full to the brim, slightly tipsy, and an Eastenders Christmas special - fine by me! The weather doesn't even matter.

Edited September 7, 2015 by cheese

[carinthian]

And I wouldn't have it any other way. That's the Christmas I've come to love over the years and anything else just doesn't feel the same. Full to the brim, slightly tipsy, and an Eastenders Christmas special - fine by me! The weather doesn't even matter.

You might be right cheese. I am just a miserable sod. I do remember snow falling in England on Christmas Day but not many times, but sat  around the telly would drive me mad. Would rather be sat on my own looking through a frost covered window and watching snow flurries drifting from a moon lit heaven and of course a glass of finest malt in one hand and a cigar in the other..!

 C

[Daniel*]

Nothing more magical than a white Christmas - thick snow not the snizzle kind lovely.

One can dream..

[cheshire snow]

Funny enough, I have never heard thunder on the day itself. Not had a wet Christmas Day for some years either.

Hi wondering if you could answer a question for me, when was

The last time Manchester recorded a white Christmas, I should

Be more precise, I dont mean a few flakes falling, I am looking

For when it has snowed and given a good covering on the day

Itself

Thanks

C.S

[mountain shadow]

There will be snow laying somewhere in the UK on Christmas Day, i can 100% guarantee it.

[Methuselah]

Hi wondering if you could answer a question for me, when was

The last time Manchester recorded a white Christmas, I should

Be more precise, I dont mean a few flakes falling, I am looking

For when it has snowed and given a good covering on the day

Itself

Thanks

C.S

1968?

[Daniel*]

There will be snow laying somewhere in the UK on Christmas Day, i can 100% guarantee it.

On the summit of Ben Nevis that's a certain. Hopefully some low-lying snow this winter.

[Guest]

There will be snow laying somewhere in the UK on Christmas Day, i can 100% guarantee it.

 

If that does happen, I'll be the first person protesting.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I don't think we will see snow this year. There is a too strong el nino taking place, sure I read something a few weeks ago saying that this winter could be infact the warmest and driest on record, totally contradicting the winter 2009/10 from the last el nino.

[MPG]

I don't think we will see snow this year. There is a too strong el nino taking place, sure I read something a few weeks ago saying that this winter could be infact the warmest and driest on record, totally contradicting the winter 2009/10 from the last el nino.

What sort of el nino are you talking about? A modoki el nino could produce something much different to forecast of no snow this winter!!!

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook says

The second update increases the chances of a White Christmas in both the north and south. The reasons for this are:

1) Updates to some of the long range anomaly charts which now suggest a higher chance of below average temperatures affecting the UK during the winter months. This may be due to the persistence of below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic.

2) The mixed start to September with temperatures below the Central England Temperature (CET) during the first half of the month. Anecdotal evidence during recent decades suggests warm Septembers are often followed by milder winters bringing less snowfall.

Despite 1 and 2,  moderate or strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue beyond Christmas and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is expected to be in a westerly phase. Both of these factors are thought to favour milder and more unsettled weather, although recent discussion raises uncertainty about the impact of the El Nino.

The temperature anomaly charts possibly indicate colder spells being more likely to come from the north west and north rather than east. This would mean snow is more probable in the northern half of the UK.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued

Update 2, 19/09/2015

The computer says [issued 21/09/2015 16:18:38]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
• Cold conditions in Scotland are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Guest]

What sort of el nino are you talking about? A modoki el nino could produce something much different to forecast of no snow this winter!!!

 

El Nino's usually make British Winters cooler and wetter, however, it can also make it colder and snowier.

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook says

The third update makes no changes to the chances of a White Christmas in both the north and south but the chances are considered slightly higher now than when the updates started at the beginning of September. The reasons for this are:

1) Updates to some of the long range anomaly charts which now suggest a higher chance of below average temperatures affecting the UK during the winter months. This may be due to the persistence of below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic.

2) The mixed start to September with temperatures below the Central England Temperature (CET) during the first half of the month. Anecdotal evidence during recent decades suggests warm Septembers are often followed by milder winters bringing less snowfall.

Despite 1 and 2,  moderate or strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue beyond Christmas and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is expected to be in a westerly phase. Both of these factors are thought to favour milder and more unsettled weather, although recent discussion raises uncertainty about the impact of the El Nino.

The temperature anomaly charts possibly indicate colder spells being more likely to come from the north west and north rather than east. This would mean snow is more probable in the northern half of the UK.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued

Update 3, 26/09/2015

The computer says [issued 27/09/2015 10:13:43]

 

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
• Snow is expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

 

  -

[solarcycle]

When was the last time London had lying snow on Xmas day?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

1963     

[Walsall Wood Snow]

When was the last time London had lying snow on Xmas day?

I think parts of London, or at least Greater London may have had lying snow on Christmas Day 2010. The city itself I believe was snow free though. I do know (or so i've heard) that the last time London had a 'classic' white Christmas (with snow falling and settling) was Christmas Day 1970.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Tyneside the last white Christmas in terms of snow lying was 2010.  For significant amounts of snow both lying and falling on the day itself, you need to go back to 1995.

[Daniel*]

I think parts of London, or at least Greater London may have had lying snow on Christmas Day 2010. The city itself I believe was snow free though. I do know (or so i've heard) that the last time London had a 'classic' white Christmas (with snow falling and settling) was Christmas Day 1970.

The great thaw occurred over festive period I do recall there being remnants of compact snow in shaded areas fighting for survival.

[lassie23]

Madden going for a white Christmas.  

[cheshire snow]

Madden going for a white Christmas.

Mild and wet it is then, Honesty if anyone could predict the

Weather for Christmas Day (Which is what about 13 or so weeks

Away) I would imagine they would be multi millionaires, he may

Be correct for the top of Ben Nevis, for genrral low land UK

What a load of bull @×% €

C.S

[William Grimsley]

The last time I had lying snow on Christmas Day was in 2010. 30 cm still lying after 5 days. Incredible!

[Methuselah]

Madden going for a white Christmas.

He does that every year. Maddening innit!

[Yarmy]

Madden going for a white Christmas.

 

No way!

[stewfox]

The last time I had lying snow on Christmas Day was in 2010. 30 cm still lying after 5 days. Incredible!

 

In need December 2010 was very festive.

 

What fell on 18/12 was largely still there on Christmas day

Edited September 30, 2015 by stewfox