Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This is a natural effect though, there are no other causes other than natural in this case as this is the way the AMO behaves prior to its overall switch. I would expect this cold pool to moderate over the next 6 months or so with warmer waters returning.

    I expect further cooling.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 664
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a differe

    Yeah, I think that's quite a disingenuous chart (no reflection on yourself , of course!).   If we look at the months used in that chart, and the 9 months leading up to them, we get the following:  

    The 13 hours later this arrived..   Many thanks for your enquiry regarding North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. I have spoken to the relevant scientists within the Met Office Hadley Centre who h

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    As far as the theory goes, the melt water from Greenland isn't causing the cold SSTs directly. The cold blob is being caused by reduced heat transport northward by the gulf stream. That reduced northward transport may be due to the AMOC being affected by the extra cold fresh water coming off Greenland.

     

    Now, it isn't though that the last few years of large melt rates from Greenland is the cause, but rather the cumulative and accelerating influx of cooler, fresher water over the last few decades.

     

    Jason Box's blog has a little more info http://meltfactor.org/a-conspicuous-area-of-cold/

     

    Box, Mann and Rahmstorf made quite an amusing video to go with their paper.

     

     

    A screen capture of the millenium proxy data.

     

    1PSSTd6.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Just musing about the unusual going's on in Antarctica this winter.

     

    Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice

     

     

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7484/full/nature12945.html

     

    Knocker... (Your musings could be the link!). Can I muse a little more, in true GW style!!!!

     

    So it is now being proposed that the Antarctic sea ice levels are affected by the AMOC. In other words there may be an interaction between the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice sheets!!

     

    Could this re-enforce the current apparent weakening AMOC or could it be the cause of it. Cause and effect?

     

    I think that we need to see what is going on off CapeTown in the southern Atlantic.

     

    Also this may introduce the prospect of a southern - northern hemispherical interaction, which may be important in heat transfer terms for the climate models. It is certain that something is missing in the models,  and I have been speculating for sometime that the differences between the models and reality could be due to the AMO, (or for something  that the AMO seems to act as a good proxy for!)

     

    However - it may all dissappear back to normal in the next month. (Sceptical me !!)

     

    MIA

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Very interesting piece of analysis this from one of our genius U.S Mets.

     

    Second Coldest Atlantic Pool since 1950.

     

    post-7292-0-51569500-1443343983_thumb.pn

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Hi to all, 

    Does anybody have some information about the N.Atlantic sea surface cooling that's taking place for several months now?

    Some brief news have started to appear about it: 

    http://www.pressherald.com/2015/09/24/scientists-worry-unusual-cold-blob-north-atlantic/

    http://www.readingeagle.com/ap/article/some-scientists-worried-about-surprisingly-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean

    Any ideas or further research about this thing?

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Welcome to Netwx Luis, have a read through the thread lots of discussion already on this.

     

    No one has the definitive answer.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Hi to all, 

    Does anybody have some information about the N.Atlantic sea surface cooling that's taking place for several months now?

    Some brief news have started to appear about it: 

    http://www.pressherald.com/2015/09/24/scientists-worry-unusual-cold-blob-north-atlantic/

    http://www.readingeagle.com/ap/article/some-scientists-worried-about-surprisingly-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean

    Any ideas or further research about this thing?

    Welcome, Luis. :D

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Hi to all, 

    Does anybody have some information about the N.Atlantic sea surface cooling that's taking place for several months now?

    Some brief news have started to appear about it: 

    http://www.pressherald.com/2015/09/24/scientists-worry-unusual-cold-blob-north-atlantic/

    http://www.readingeagle.com/ap/article/some-scientists-worried-about-surprisingly-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean

    Any ideas or further research about this thing?

     

    Welcome luis. That's a good article by the Portland Press Herald. It discusses a research paper first mentioned on this forum back at post #97 (page 5) called 'Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation' by Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf and Michael E. Mann (amongst others). What I find interesting is when a follow-up press report manages to squeeze some additional insight or comment out of the research paper's authors.

     

    In this case the Herald contacted the two authors above and I think it's worth posting their comments:

     

    Michael E. Mann: "I was formerly somewhat skeptical about the notion that the ocean “conveyor belt†circulation pattern could weaken abruptly in response to global warming. Yet this now appears to be underway, as we showed in a recent article, and as we now appear to be witnessing before our very eyes in the form of an anomalous blob of cold water in the sup-polar North Atlantic."

     

    Prof. Rahmstorf: "The fact that a record-hot planet Earth coincides with a record-cold northern Atlantic is quite stunning. There is strong evidence — not just from our study — that this is a consequence of the long-term decline of the Gulf Stream System, i.e. the Atlantic ocean’s overturning circulation AMOC, in response to global warming. ...........I do expect the AMOC to decline further in the coming decades. The accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet will continue to contribute to this decline by diluting the ocean waters."

     

    From my point of view, I think there is sufficient research (much of it referred to in this forum) to have a reasonable understanding of the causes of the anomaly in the N. Atlantic (although gaps do remain). Less clear and less well understood is how this will impact local climate and weather patterns (particularly for the UK and northern Europe), e.g. behaviour of the jet stream, track of winter storms, precipitation levels/patterns, etc, etc. So there's much more research to be undertaken and reports to read - I suspect we can look forward to this being an active forum for some time!

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Nice one Knocker.

     

    I emailed the chief oceanographer at Met Office today for their thoughts... looking forward to seeing what they come up with...

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Nice one Knocker.

     

    I emailed the chief oceanographer at Met Office today for their thoughts... looking forward to seeing what they come up with...

     

    Await the reply with interest Lorenzo

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Michael E. Mann â€@MichaelEMann 6h6 hours ago

    On @weatherchannel tomorrow ~8:40 AM ET to talk about North Atlantic #ColdBlob

     

    This is quite neat

     

     

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=326.14,46.25,881 â€¦

     

    Brilliant animation Knocker... IncredIble the way the normal N Atlantic drift  just starts to go round in circles and then just dissipates to leave nothing. All very strange.

     

    MIA

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Might be an idea to follow oceanographer Gerard McCarthy on Twitter in the coming weeks as he will be on the upcoming RAPID cruise.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ger_the_sea

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

     

    That is beautiful and hypnotic (El Nino looks incredible). What's the date range used: are they current currents?

     

    Edit: Ok, had a play around. The data is updated every 3 hours (estimated surface currents every 5 days) and anomaly baseline is 1981-2010. It's open source too, if you want to have a hack around 

     

    https://github.com/cambecc/earth

     

    Amazing tool.

    Edited by Yarmy
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

     

    The ice melt causing a thermohaline slow down (or shut down) hypothesis has been in the research for many a long year. It is not possible to have this discussion without reference to the various science papers on the subject - most of those will reference climate change as being instrumental - that's because it is where science is at. Maybe other theories will become more mainstream -  time, research and developments could alter perceptions already held.

     

    There are alternative suggestions .....

     

    http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/2519/2014/cpd-10-2519-2014.pdf

     

     

     

    Michael E. Mann â€@MichaelEMann 6h6 hours ago

    On @weatherchannel tomorrow ~8:40 AM ET to talk about North Atlantic #ColdBlob

     

    This is quite neat

     

     

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=326.14,46.25,881 â€¦

     

    Brilliant animation Knocker... IncredIble the way the normal N Atlantic drift  just starts to go round in circles and then just dissipates to leave nothing. All very strange.

     

    MIA

     

     

    Nothing out of the ordinary as far as speed and direction are concerned - it is other branches/overturning that are being altered.

     

    2005  gulf_050927_vel.gif   2015  gulf_150920_vel.gif

    Edited by lorenzo
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    The ice melt causing a thermohaline slow down (or shut down) hypothesis has been in the research for many a long year. It is not possible to have this discussion without reference to the various science papers on the subject - most of those will reference climate change as being instrumental - that's because it is where science is at. Maybe other theories will become more mainstream -  time, research and developments could alter perceptions already held.

     

    There are alternative suggestions .....

     

    http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/2519/2014/cpd-10-2519-2014.pdf

     

     

     

    Nothing out of the ordinary as far as speed and direction are concerned - it is other branches/overturning that are being altered.

     

    2005  gulf_050927_vel.gif   2015  gulf_150920_vel.gif

    nouska, those images are identical, i.e. the same image

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    nouska, those images are identical, i.e. the same image

    No...they are different.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    I've held a theory for some time now that the Gulf Stream / North Atlantic Drift has been slowing down or not as strong as it was...nothing excessively scientific except for the huge drop in numbers of European Eels. The adult Eels migrate to the Sargasso Sea to spawn and their offspring hitch a ride on the Gulf Stream and then return to the rivers as Elvers to grow into Eels.

     

    I think there's a link to even a slight decline in the strength of the plume of water which they use to travel meaning much lower numbers returning to northern Europe.

     

    Just a theory...

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I've held a theory for some time now that the Gulf Stream / North Atlantic Drift has been slowing down or not as strong as it was...nothing excessively scientific except for the huge drop in numbers of European Eels. The adult Eels migrate to the Sargasso Sea to spawn and their offspring hitch a ride on the Gulf Stream and then return to the rivers as Elvers to grow into Eels.

     

    I think there's a link to even a slight decline in the strength of the plume of water which they use to travel meaning much lower numbers returning to northern Europe.

     

    Just a theory...

     

    That's a perfectly valid point and scientific to boot providing the survey was carried out in the correct manner. After all one of the longest running scientific experiments involves logging plankton. It's amazing that the little buggers can get back to the Sargasso after ten years in the UK.

     

    I wonder weather 'blue snails' and Portuguese man-of-war are likewise affected.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    I've held a theory for some time now that the Gulf Stream / North Atlantic Drift has been slowing down or not as strong as it was...nothing excessively scientific except for the huge drop in numbers of European Eels. The adult Eels migrate to the Sargasso Sea to spawn and their offspring hitch a ride on the Gulf Stream and then return to the rivers as Elvers to grow into Eels.

     

    I think there's a link to even a slight decline in the strength of the plume of water which they use to travel meaning much lower numbers returning to northern Europe.

     

    Just a theory...

     

    There's a wealth of interesting information about the state of the oceans in marine biology papers. :good:

     

    Your theory on eels sounds very plausible. I've read that they are thought to use earth's magnetic field for migration and wonder if recent changes in the strength of the fields might also be having an impact.

     

    It's off topic but a couple of snippets that might interest some folks.

     

    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0059212

     

    http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Swarm_reveals_Earth_s_changing_magnetism

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    According to this article, numbers have recovered:

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/14/european-eels-record-third-year

     

    So perhaps they are a proxy for something, but not the strength of the gulf stream?

     

    Current anomaly: not much change:

     

    anomnight.9.28.2015.gif

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Just deleted that little section of off topic exchanges.

     

    Appreciate there is some level of crossover to the Climate threads, please consider whether you want to maintain the thread of this topic, or whether the post you are creating is better suited in the Climate section, saves the forum team a lot of work moderating, moving posts and issuing PMs etc.

     

    Thanks.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    This is the weather channel interview with Michael Mann mentioned above.

     

    http://www.weather.com/tv/shows/amhq/video/cold-blob-in-the-atlantic-ocean

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...