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Anyone have any thoughts on the Atlantic sst pattern for May? I believe ukmo factor this in for their winter thoughts..

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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyone have any thoughts on the Atlantic sst pattern for May? I believe ukmo factor this in for their winter thoughts..

UKMO say in their contingency planners forecast for May-July:

'Meanwhile, in the North Atlantic Ocean, the current pattern of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) moderately increases the chances of higher-than-average pressure across Northern Europe. During spring and early summer, high pressure is usually associated with warmer than-average conditions. In addition, SSTs close to the UK are currently higher than normal, which also increases the chances of above-average temperatures.'

Current SST anomaly:

sstEurope_anom_2019-05-09.thumb.png.d33e76f713182971644e76ba9833f108.png

I think we just need the after effects of the stratosphere final warming to dissipate, and then this influence should become stronger.

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14 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyone have any thoughts on the Atlantic sst pattern for May? I believe ukmo factor this in for their winter thoughts..

Looking at this, doesn't look like a triple, all looks averagely cool with some warmer areas. Not convinced by the contingency planners report...not that much warmer anomaly wise...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-359.33,62.45,1068

 

 

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Seems like the right thread for this musing...

Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

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On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

Seems like the right thread for this musing...

Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

This cold anomaly can suppress the development of tropical storms and hurricanes 

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On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

Seems like the right thread for this musing...

Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

Dont know if this helps   howver it is interesting

69914.pdf

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12 hours ago, weirpig said:

Dont know if this helps   howver it is interesting

69914.pdf 1.29 MB · 7 downloads

Thanks - yes - interesting. Not quite sure how well reviewed that paper is, but if the conclusions are correct then it would certainly lend support to the high pressure dominated summer at the moment over western and central Europe. Less impact directly over the UK, but if the monsoon tracks north then the sub tropical high tracks north with it - and that means a predisposition to warm and dry weather. Fans of hot and dry summer weather won't be sad therefore to see the Gulf of Guinea cold.

Will watch this through the summer - interesting observational exercise.

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On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

Seems like the right thread for this musing...

Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

Looking at some of the papers in the Netweather Research library, the SST pattern you show indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO), influenced by the ENSO state and strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), may be behind the changes to Tropical Atlantic SST. Probably the best read is the 2016 paper Is There Evidence of Changes in Tropical Atlantic Variability Modes under AMO Phases in the Observational Record? Interestingly, the AMO, after being positive since 1995, has recently slipped slightly negative and is currently bouncing along close to neutral.

1985 - 2019 1273361615_AMO1985to2019.thumb.jpg.bb6aca5c0132bd21e8ba7cdba5715331.jpg 2017-2019 2028980193_AMO2017to2019.thumb.jpg.53eac5b6a5c0e84827f719ba18ea443c.jpg

Source: https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php

The above paper states:

"During negative AMO, the tropical–extratropical teleconnections are enhanced and the Walker circulation is altered. This, together with the increased equatorial SST variability, could promote the ENSO impacts on Tropical Atlantic Variability."

And includes the following charts:

AMO Positive: 9914308_TropAtlSSTPosAMO.thumb.jpg.2301801400aac359a3a241ebe7fe2152.jpg AMO Negative: 399831106_TropAtlSSTNegAMO.thumb.jpg.829a11cd509eff74e1456c439c5ce209.jpg

And the impacts? There's plenty of research that shows a regional rainfall/drought impact, and as mentioned in previous posts, on levels of Atlantic Hurricane activity. This webpage from NOAA provides a great summary of the impact of AMO modes:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php

Hope that helps.

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13 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Looking at some of the papers in the Netweather Research library, the SST pattern you show indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO), influenced by the ENSO state and strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), may be behind the changes to Tropical Atlantic SST. Probably the best read is the 2016 paper Is There Evidence of Changes in Tropical Atlantic Variability Modes under AMO Phases in the Observational Record? Interestingly, the AMO, after being positive since 1995, has recently slipped slightly negative and is currently bouncing along close to neutral.

1985 - 2019 1273361615_AMO1985to2019.thumb.jpg.bb6aca5c0132bd21e8ba7cdba5715331.jpg 2017-2019 2028980193_AMO2017to2019.thumb.jpg.53eac5b6a5c0e84827f719ba18ea443c.jpg

Source: https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php

The above paper states:

"During negative AMO, the tropical–extratropical teleconnections are enhanced and the Walker circulation is altered. This, together with the increased equatorial SST variability, could promote the ENSO impacts on Tropical Atlantic Variability."

And includes the following charts:

AMO Positive: 9914308_TropAtlSSTPosAMO.thumb.jpg.2301801400aac359a3a241ebe7fe2152.jpg AMO Negative: 399831106_TropAtlSSTNegAMO.thumb.jpg.829a11cd509eff74e1456c439c5ce209.jpg

And the impacts? There's plenty of research that shows a regional rainfall/drought impact, and as mentioned in previous posts, on levels of Atlantic Hurricane activity. This webpage from NOAA provides a great summary of the impact of AMO modes:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php

Hope that helps.

Thanks Malcolm - appreciated. More knowledge to accrue.... 🙂

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

Seems like the right thread for this musing...

Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

Catacol...

Also in the above chart notice that the Southern Hemisphere SST's have now turned negative, particularly in the Pacific.Todays Climate Reanalyser is still very much the same.

 

This now seems to be pushing the EL Nino very much towards the West.

Latest 3.4 chart is falling very rapidly.

 

nino34.png

 

Probably should have put this post in the ENSO thread, but I was quite surprised by your SST post above.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Not quite perfect in the Tropics but the current chart shows a stonker of a -NAO Tripole.

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10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Not quite perfect in the Tropics but the current chart shows a stonker of a -NAO Tripole.

yes,was reading through some research papers earlier today,might also be a lagged response to solar minimum, lets hope it stays that way for a while 🙂https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50099

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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