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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Anyone have any thoughts on the Atlantic sst pattern for May? I believe ukmo factor this in for their winter thoughts..

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    So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a differe

    Yeah, I think that's quite a disingenuous chart (no reflection on yourself , of course!).   If we look at the months used in that chart, and the 9 months leading up to them, we get the following:  

    The 13 hours later this arrived..   Many thanks for your enquiry regarding North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. I have spoken to the relevant scientists within the Met Office Hadley Centre who h

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Anyone have any thoughts on the Atlantic sst pattern for May? I believe ukmo factor this in for their winter thoughts..

    UKMO say in their contingency planners forecast for May-July:

    'Meanwhile, in the North Atlantic Ocean, the current pattern of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) moderately increases the chances of higher-than-average pressure across Northern Europe. During spring and early summer, high pressure is usually associated with warmer than-average conditions. In addition, SSTs close to the UK are currently higher than normal, which also increases the chances of above-average temperatures.'

    Current SST anomaly:

    sstEurope_anom_2019-05-09.thumb.png.d33e76f713182971644e76ba9833f108.png

    I think we just need the after effects of the stratosphere final warming to dissipate, and then this influence should become stronger.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    14 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Anyone have any thoughts on the Atlantic sst pattern for May? I believe ukmo factor this in for their winter thoughts..

    Looking at this, doesn't look like a triple, all looks averagely cool with some warmer areas. Not convinced by the contingency planners report...not that much warmer anomaly wise...

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-359.33,62.45,1068

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Seems like the right thread for this musing...

    Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

    cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

    In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

    Seems like the right thread for this musing...

    Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

    cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

    In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

    This cold anomaly can suppress the development of tropical storms and hurricanes 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

    Seems like the right thread for this musing...

    Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

    cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

    In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

    Dont know if this helps   howver it is interesting

    69914.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    12 hours ago, weirpig said:

    Dont know if this helps   howver it is interesting

    69914.pdf 1.29 MB · 7 downloads

    Thanks - yes - interesting. Not quite sure how well reviewed that paper is, but if the conclusions are correct then it would certainly lend support to the high pressure dominated summer at the moment over western and central Europe. Less impact directly over the UK, but if the monsoon tracks north then the sub tropical high tracks north with it - and that means a predisposition to warm and dry weather. Fans of hot and dry summer weather won't be sad therefore to see the Gulf of Guinea cold.

    Will watch this through the summer - interesting observational exercise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

    Seems like the right thread for this musing...

    Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

    cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

    In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

    Looking at some of the papers in the Netweather Research library, the SST pattern you show indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO), influenced by the ENSO state and strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), may be behind the changes to Tropical Atlantic SST. Probably the best read is the 2016 paper Is There Evidence of Changes in Tropical Atlantic Variability Modes under AMO Phases in the Observational Record? Interestingly, the AMO, after being positive since 1995, has recently slipped slightly negative and is currently bouncing along close to neutral.

    1985 - 2019 1273361615_AMO1985to2019.thumb.jpg.bb6aca5c0132bd21e8ba7cdba5715331.jpg 2017-2019 2028980193_AMO2017to2019.thumb.jpg.53eac5b6a5c0e84827f719ba18ea443c.jpg

    Source: https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php

    The above paper states:

    "During negative AMO, the tropical–extratropical teleconnections are enhanced and the Walker circulation is altered. This, together with the increased equatorial SST variability, could promote the ENSO impacts on Tropical Atlantic Variability."

    And includes the following charts:

    AMO Positive: 9914308_TropAtlSSTPosAMO.thumb.jpg.2301801400aac359a3a241ebe7fe2152.jpg AMO Negative: 399831106_TropAtlSSTNegAMO.thumb.jpg.829a11cd509eff74e1456c439c5ce209.jpg

    And the impacts? There's plenty of research that shows a regional rainfall/drought impact, and as mentioned in previous posts, on levels of Atlantic Hurricane activity. This webpage from NOAA provides a great summary of the impact of AMO modes:

    https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php

    Hope that helps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    13 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Looking at some of the papers in the Netweather Research library, the SST pattern you show indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO), influenced by the ENSO state and strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), may be behind the changes to Tropical Atlantic SST. Probably the best read is the 2016 paper Is There Evidence of Changes in Tropical Atlantic Variability Modes under AMO Phases in the Observational Record? Interestingly, the AMO, after being positive since 1995, has recently slipped slightly negative and is currently bouncing along close to neutral.

    1985 - 2019 1273361615_AMO1985to2019.thumb.jpg.bb6aca5c0132bd21e8ba7cdba5715331.jpg 2017-2019 2028980193_AMO2017to2019.thumb.jpg.53eac5b6a5c0e84827f719ba18ea443c.jpg

    Source: https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php

    The above paper states:

    "During negative AMO, the tropical–extratropical teleconnections are enhanced and the Walker circulation is altered. This, together with the increased equatorial SST variability, could promote the ENSO impacts on Tropical Atlantic Variability."

    And includes the following charts:

    AMO Positive: 9914308_TropAtlSSTPosAMO.thumb.jpg.2301801400aac359a3a241ebe7fe2152.jpg AMO Negative: 399831106_TropAtlSSTNegAMO.thumb.jpg.829a11cd509eff74e1456c439c5ce209.jpg

    And the impacts? There's plenty of research that shows a regional rainfall/drought impact, and as mentioned in previous posts, on levels of Atlantic Hurricane activity. This webpage from NOAA provides a great summary of the impact of AMO modes:

    https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php

    Hope that helps.

    Thanks Malcolm - appreciated. More knowledge to accrue.... ?

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    On 24/06/2019 at 22:12, Catacol said:

    Seems like the right thread for this musing...

    Tropical atlantic SSTs have gone cold at the moment around the western edge of Africa. 

    cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.thumb.png.4f0344bd6554bd9b420db3667e160eb4.png

    In many years on this forum and others I have rarely seen much discussion of the impact of tropical atlantic temperatures. Is there anyone out there with papers or thoughts as to potential impacts in the north atlantic basin? 

    Catacol...

    Also in the above chart notice that the Southern Hemisphere SST's have now turned negative, particularly in the Pacific.Todays Climate Reanalyser is still very much the same.

     

    This now seems to be pushing the EL Nino very much towards the West.

    Latest 3.4 chart is falling very rapidly.

     

    nino34.png

     

    Probably should have put this post in the ENSO thread, but I was quite surprised by your SST post above.

    MIA

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Not quite perfect in the Tropics but the current chart shows a stonker of a -NAO Tripole.

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Not quite perfect in the Tropics but the current chart shows a stonker of a -NAO Tripole.

    yes,was reading through some research papers earlier today,might also be a lagged response to solar minimum, lets hope it stays that way for a while ?https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50099

    cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    41467_2020_14474_Fig1_HTML.png
    WWW.NATURE.COM

    The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the global climate system. Here the authors show that eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    Was looking for a thread on the gulf stream and it was linked to this thread so hopefully the best place to discuss this interesting development, this tweet has a thread worth looking at 

    And here's the official tweet with the link to the report 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    39 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Was looking for a thread on the gulf stream and it was linked to this thread so hopefully the best place to discuss this interesting development, this tweet has a thread worth looking at 

    And here's the official tweet with the link to the report 

     

    I was just reading the article on it on sky news . Let’s hope the research is right and what they predict for are winters 😃. Extreme winters would be brilliant for the UK and NW Europe 👌

    881DF552-662E-486F-A7EE-A8132D949C7F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    On 25/02/2021 at 22:16, ICE COLD said:

    I was just reading the article on it on sky news . Let’s hope the research is right and what they predict for are winters 😃. Extreme winters would be brilliant for the UK and NW Europe 👌

    881DF552-662E-486F-A7EE-A8132D949C7F.png

    That depends what you think is behind the whole thing ?  my take is that this research confirms that the planet will attempt to deal with AGW with its own recovery systems ...... but I worry that if we don’t try and control our input effectively then the planet may pass the tipping point of dealing with it within what we would consider to be ‘reasonable climatic responses’ .....  probably for another thread .......

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    That depends what you think is behind the whole thing ?  my take is that this research confirms that the planet will attempt to deal with AGW with its own recovery systems ...... but I worry that if we don’t try and control our input effectively then the planet may pass the tipping point of dealing with it within what we would consider to be ‘reasonable climatic responses’ .....  probably for another thread .......

    Oh yes absolutely Nick , it’s most probably a GW influence. I just thought it was interesting with the Gulf Stream it’s slowest for 1000 years and the extreme winters for NW Europe bit . Let’s hope the planet does start to deal with GW in its own way ( but it will definitely need a big hand from us humans) . Sad times for a lot of wild life around the world and will most definitely start effecting humans too . (Some it already has) . Obviously I hope GW doesn’t get worse but if it does I just hope we get put in a cycle of having cold winters and not warm ones and most definitely not scorching summers ( can’t stand extreme heat ) . 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    49 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Oh yes absolutely Nick , it’s most probably a GW influence. I just thought it was interesting with the Gulf Stream it’s slowest for 1000 years and the extreme winters for NW Europe bit . Let’s hope the planet does start to deal with GW in its own way ( but it will definitely need a big hand from us humans) . Sad times for a lot of wild life around the world and will most definitely start effecting humans too . (Some it already has) . Obviously I hope GW doesn’t get worse but if it does I just hope we get put in a cycle of having cold winters and not warm ones and most definitely not scorching summers ( can’t stand extreme heat ) . 👍

    Possibly, IC. But I'm not so sure -- there was no meaningful AGW 120-years' back, and the AMOC takes longer than 120 years to circulate?🤔

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    39 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Possibly, IC. But I'm not so sure -- there was no meaningful AGW 120-years' back; and the AMOC takes longer than 120-years to circulate?🤔

    Yes I’m just speculating Ed . Just chasing one of them dream winters you’ve lived through ( not saying your old or anything 😁) . I’ll just keep on waiting , bit like Spurs waiting for a trophy 🏆 let’s just hope one turns up ( the cold winter that is 😉) 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    That depends what you think is behind the whole thing ?  my take is that this research confirms that the planet will attempt to deal with AGW with its own recovery systems ...... but I worry that if we don’t try and control our input effectively then the planet may pass the tipping point of dealing with it within what we would consider to be ‘reasonable climatic responses’ .....  probably for another thread .......

    I think although the Metoffice agree the Gulf stream will weaken/shut down eventually, they currently believe by the time it does, GW will be too far advanced for it to really affect north west Europe?  And yes, Humans need to play their part, no matter what happens!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

    Interesting reading about the gulf stream changes, this paper here may be of further interest to some:

    https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2907

    Web results

    The Gulf Stream influence on wintertime North Atlantic jet variability

    Edited by pinball wizard
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