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Cooler Atlantic

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

Could well be, but there are also other cold blobs in different areas (of course), not shown on the map.

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An interesting article in the 'Weather Club' Spring 2017 newsletter, published by the the Royal Meteorological Society.

Abrupt climate change: North Atlantic could cool sooner and faster than predicted,

Residents of north-west Europe currently enjoy a climate that is around 5C warmer than other regions of the same latitude thanks to the Gulf Stream which carries warmth from Florida to European shores. However, new research in Nature Communications has found that there is nearly a 50:50 chance that a key area of the North Atlantic will suddenly cool, within the space of a decade, before the end of this century – much sooner and faster than previously expected. Until now, it was expected to occur at least several hundreds of years in the future. Climatologists from the University of Southampton, UK and Environments et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux laboratory (CNRS/University of Bordeaux, France) developed an algorithm to investigate the risk of abrupt climate change by re-analysing the 40 climate models. Current climate models foresee a slowing of the meridional overturning circulation - or the thermohaline circulation - which is the phenomenon driving the Gulf Stream. If it were to slow down, the disruption to the climate system would be severe and unprecedented. In winter, surface water temperatures tumble, increasing water density and causing it to sink, thus displacing the deeper water which brings heat back to the surface, preventing the formation of ice caps. Oceanographers re-examined the 40 projections by focusing on a critical spot in the north-west North Atlantic: the Labrador Sea, the location of a convection system that feeds into the ocean-wide thermohaline circulation. A total shutdown of convection, leading to abrupt cooling of the Labrador Sea by 2 - 3°C in less than 10 years was predicted by several of the models, particularly those more effective at simulating ocean stratification - a critical parameter triggering the winter convection. This occurrence would ultimately lower North Atlantic coastal temperatures. Eventually, the researchers hope to test these projections against real data from instruments being deployed to analyse ocean currents, but it does suggest that current, broader ensemble predictions may underestimate future abrupt cooling.

Link to the Newsletter: http://theweatherclub.org.uk/node/247?dm_i=2PRB,F44L,135O6Y,1JVX2,1

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Looking at the latest SSTs, thats an enormous blob of cold water in the mid North Atlantic, looks far larger than recent years.

See no one has posted here since March, surely some one has  a comment or two to make.

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I don't know about the blob but the Atlantic in general has cooled recently particularly off Newfoundland

natlssta.thumb.png.202e7343853bf7e719000ab861b76ae7.pngcdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.thumb.png.0f9e735fe68aea12834a156d0b69f3cd.png

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18 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Looking at the latest SSTs, thats an enormous blob of cold water in the mid North Atlantic, looks far larger than recent years.

See no one has posted here since March, surely some one has  a comment or two to make.

The atlantic  certainly is becoming cooler  infact the 

North Atlantic Cooling Has Plunged Below 1950s (And 1800s) Levels – And Scientists Project More Cooling

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Its not as deep concentrated as lastcouple years but its over a very wide area.

Also there is a good size blob of very warm water off Spain and Portugal leading out into mid Atlantic.l

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interesting to look at the anomalies and then the actual current values.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-113.40,37.78,327/loc=-34.491,50.831

is it just me or does the T gradient in the N Atlantic look steeper than the N Pacific?
 

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3 hours ago, knocker said:

I don't know about the blob but the Atlantic in general has cooled recently particularly off Newfoundland

natlssta.thumb.png.202e7343853bf7e719000ab861b76ae7.pngcdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.thumb.png.0f9e735fe68aea12834a156d0b69f3cd.png

 

 

4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Looking at the latest SSTs, thats an enormous blob of cold water in the mid North Atlantic, looks far larger than recent years.

See no one has posted here since March, surely some one has  a comment or two to make.

 

We've had a number of deep lows in this area over the past month http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/atlantic-ocean-rescue-uk-racing-yachts-hurricane-winds-crew-members-saved-newfoundland-canada-a7783681.html  This may be a case of surface mixing relative to a seasonal norm that could be expected with more settled weather - i.e June sunshine = strong surface heating?

  If it is the return of the blob can we expect another stormy autumn along the lines of 2014 and 15?

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On 2017-6-26 at 18:08, swebby said:

 

 

 

We've had a number of deep lows in this area over the past month http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/atlantic-ocean-rescue-uk-racing-yachts-hurricane-winds-crew-members-saved-newfoundland-canada-a7783681.html  This may be a case of surface mixing relative to a seasonal norm that could be expected with more settled weather - i.e June sunshine = strong surface heating?

  If it is the return of the blob can we expect another stormy autumn along the lines of 2014 and 15?

Might also be being influenced by solar output? 

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The cold blob is not getting any smaller, it's been like this for months, growing even...

anomnight.7_13_2017.thumb.gif.ccfa0696df7ef6400e30a995275f7432.gif

Warmer water seems to be stagnating off the coast of the US.

Atlantic current slowing down?...

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On 7/15/2017 at 10:05, bobbydog said:

The cold blob is not getting any smaller, it's been like this for months, growing even...

anomnight.7_13_2017.thumb.gif.ccfa0696df7ef6400e30a995275f7432.gif

Warmer water seems to be stagnating off the coast of the US.

Atlantic current slowing down?...

Its reached Ireland now, sure does seem bigger than the last few years, but not as concentrated.
A marked above ave temp profile over SE UK though and to the north of the UK.

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Really interesting thread, great to read in the backround as the months tick by. Just thought I would add the updated chart, cold blob has shifted right to our shores!

anomnight.8_14_2017.thumb.gif.09100d43659c1574e2f2d47a110b46e5.gif

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It's shifted, but if you look back a couple of years to April 2015 (this blob has been around a while!) then it's not as cold as it was, and has moved position a fair bit:

5fc8f63f9b.gifanomnight.8.14.2017.gif

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Yes it's considerably less cold than it was, only slightly below average really. The Irish Sea, North Sea and the Channel are also average to above.

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13 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Yes it's considerably less cold than it was, only slightly below average really. The Irish Sea, North Sea and the Channel are also average to above.

Let's see how it looks after a few decent former tropical storms have been through and homogenised the water a bit. You'd expect it to warm up a bit on the surface through the summer just from exposure to solar radiation. Once Gert and a few more have been through to mix the top few feet out into the (cooler) water beneath that will give us a more accurate picture.

Edited by JeffC
Spell checker overcooked !
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The way it has moved in recent months has been suggestive of ocean currents (in particular regions of upwelling and downwelling) finally shifting in a manner conducive to eroding the cold pool from the west. This is not surprising given that historically such a phenomenon has not been observed to cycle through more than three winters running. 

That being said, it was exceptionally strong at peak so an unusually long-lasting effect on sub-surface waters can't be ruled out. I wonder if anyone has a vertical cross-section of SST anomalies for that region to hand? TIA :hi:

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The blob seems to have moved East, and partly extends to the Mediterranean; this is likely to reflect atmospheric dynamics rather than ocean currents, but in any case, it might indicate a tendency for a more Southerly- tracking jet this year. The jet seems to have flowed- around the edges of this blob over the years, and this resulted In December 2015 being record- breakingly mild. If the anomaly stays where it is this year, however, we may be in for a very diiffent December, and winter generally.

Edited by snowwman
correction
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As we begin to head back into Autumn and more importantly winter, The cooler Atlantic blob doesn't really stand out as much perhaps that the whole area is much cooler? but much differently compared to when we first started this thread back in 2015! What will it mean this year? And does it really impact our weather?

BLOB.thumb.jpg.75860db7d1d975cea00c630d0a298787.jpg

Also posted the Pacific too big changes there this year compared to the last few 

59acf0b1bc551_bloobworld.thumb.png.7ef1515b518805d2ac37f4f546df4d58.png

 

2015 -  31st August 

59acf0e09bd51_blob2015.thumb.jpg.0a8886fe6a35643a56560d60e36bb77c.jpg

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On 20/08/2017 at 15:42, snowwman said:

it might indicate a tendency for a more Southerly- tracking jet this year. The jet seems to have flowed- around the edges of this blob over the years, and this resulted In December 2015 being record- breakingly mild. If the anomaly stays where it is this year, however, we may be in for a very diiffent December, and winter generally.

This accords with my views - based on my reading re: solar/lunar/Earth dynamics and cycles. Sorry for an enigmatic post, but I've come hotfoot here after looking for a winter thread (prob a bit too soon) - via a search for White Christmas odds! A southerly jet with regular incursions from a very cold Arctic/Northern Europe is my punt for what is on the cards. Mods: feel free to move this somewhere more appropriate.

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