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  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Well the North Atlantic Cold Pool is still very much with us and indeed has been record breaking this year. With the December data now available I've produced a final graph of the Cold Pool SST for 2015. I've again included two other unusually cold years - 1982 and 1993 - for comparison with 2015. The graph also shows the long-term 1948 - 2015 Monthly Mean.

    Analysis shows that:

    • In the last 68 years 2015 is the only year where the monthly mean SST has been below the long-term average for every month.
    • Comparing the 12 month average temperature (i.e. Jan to Dec divided by 12) for each year since 1948 shows 2015 as the overall coldest year.

    2015 Graph 568ac5e94bfcb_ColdPoolSST2015Graph.thumb Figures used in graph 568ac5f4b5c81_ColdPoolSST2015Numbers.thu

     

    And here's the latest SST Anomaly from Unisys 568ac603c8c7e_SSTAnomalyJan3rd2016.thumb

    Unisys website: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar

    Raw data values for the Cold Pool: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

     

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    So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a differe

    Yeah, I think that's quite a disingenuous chart (no reflection on yourself , of course!).   If we look at the months used in that chart, and the 9 months leading up to them, we get the following:  

    The 13 hours later this arrived..   Many thanks for your enquiry regarding North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. I have spoken to the relevant scientists within the Met Office Hadley Centre who h

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    A conundrum: why is there such a pronounced negative SST anomaly over the Gulf of St Lawrence on the NOAA charts that doesn't exist on others?

    NOAA

    anomnight.1.4.2016.gif

    Unisys

    sst_anom-160103.gif

     

    Also, see here: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=326.14,46.25,689

    It's not ice as there isn't any. I can't remember (or find!) what the baseline year ranges are in each case, but one thought is that this area used to be covered in ice earlier in winter and that causes the discrepancy (the negative anomaly first started appearing at the end of October)?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    20 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Well the North Atlantic Cold Pool is still very much with us and indeed has been record breaking this year. With the December data now available I've produced a final graph of the Cold Pool SST for 2015. I've again included two other unusually cold years - 1982 and 1993 - for comparison with 2015. The graph also shows the long-term 1948 - 2015 Monthly Mean.

    Analysis shows that:

    • In the last 68 years 2015 is the only year where the monthly mean SST has been below the long-term average for every month.
    • Comparing the 12 month average temperature (i.e. Jan to Dec divided by 12) for each year since 1948 shows 2015 as the overall coldest year.

    2015 Graph 568ac5e94bfcb_ColdPoolSST2015Graph.thumb Figures used in graph 568ac5f4b5c81_ColdPoolSST2015Numbers.thu

     

    And here's the latest SST Anomaly from Unisys 568ac603c8c7e_SSTAnomalyJan3rd2016.thumb

    Unisys website: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar

    Raw data values for the Cold Pool: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

     

    Was there a cold anomaly in 2004 also, or is it just a coincidence that 1982 / 1993 anomalies were separated by 11 years and then 22 to 2015?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    2 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

    Was there a cold anomaly in 2004 also, or is it just a coincidence that 1982 / 1993 anomalies were separated by 11 years and then 22 to 2015?

    There certainly does appear to be a link between North Atlantic SSTs and the 11 year solar cycle. I posted the following back on Page 6 of this thread. You can find the full post here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83908-cooler-atlantic/?do=findComment&comment=3260125

    An interesting paper has just been published (15 Sept) that suggests the solar cycle has an impact on the North Atlantic winter climate through the interaction between ocean and atmosphere and that this effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA), Artic Oscillation (AO) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). 

    If I’ve read the paper correctly, the interaction sequence seems to be:

    Level of solar irradiance (solar cycle) >> impacts modulation of the polar-night jet & stratospheric meridional overturning circulation  >> impacts NAO/AO >>impacts SST & mid-latitude winds  >> amplification of initial signal through feedback mechanisms.

    There is a lag of up to 3 years with the impact and it is interesting that the diagram of the N. Atlantic SSTs shown in Fig.1f - 1g within the paper has many similarities to the current SST anomaly we’ve been discussing in this forum, suggesting we are currently somewhere in the +1 to +3 year lag phase.

    Full paper: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150915/ncomms9268/full/ncomms9268.html

    There is a graph in the paper (Fig 2) showing the relationship between solar activity and SSTs, but it's not granular enough to pick out individual years very clearly I'm afraid. With regard 2004, there were 4 months (May to Aug) where the Cold Pool SST was below the long-term average, but overall the year came out slightly above average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    3 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

     

    There certainly does appear to be a link between North Atlantic SSTs and the 11 year solar cycle. I posted the following back on Page 6 of this thread. You can find the full post here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83908-cooler-atlantic/?do=findComment&comment=3260125

    An interesting paper has just been published (15 Sept) that suggests the solar cycle has an impact on the North Atlantic winter climate through the interaction between ocean and atmosphere and that this effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA), Artic Oscillation (AO) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). 

    If I’ve read the paper correctly, the interaction sequence seems to be:

    Level of solar irradiance (solar cycle) >> impacts modulation of the polar-night jet & stratospheric meridional overturning circulation  >> impacts NAO/AO >>impacts SST & mid-latitude winds  >> amplification of initial signal through feedback mechanisms.

    There is a lag of up to 3 years with the impact and it is interesting that the diagram of the N. Atlantic SSTs shown in Fig.1f - 1g within the paper has many similarities to the current SST anomaly we’ve been discussing in this forum, suggesting we are currently somewhere in the +1 to +3 year lag phase.

    Full paper: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150915/ncomms9268/full/ncomms9268.html

    There is a graph in the paper (Fig 2) showing the relationship between solar activity and SSTs, but it's not granular enough to pick out individual years very clearly I'm afraid. With regard 2004, there were 4 months (May to Aug) where the Cold Pool SST was below the long-term average, but overall the year came out slightly above average.

    Thanks- interesting read. I did wonder about a possible solar cycle link when I saw the 11 year interval between the years you listed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System

    Blizzard Jonas on the US east coast has just shattered snowfall records. Both weather forecasters and climate experts have linked the high snowfall amounts to the exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures off the east coast. In this post I will examine a related question: why are sea surface temperatures so high there, as shown in the snapshot from Climate Reanalyzer below?

    GFS-025deg_NH-SAT1_SST_anom_24_Jan_2016-

    I will argue that this warmth (as well as the cold blob in the subpolar Atlantic) is partly due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), sometimes referred to as the Gulf Stream System, in response to global warming. There is two points to this argument:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/01/blizzard-jonas-and-the-slowdown-of-the-gulf-stream-system/

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: London, England
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers, cold winters
  • Location: London, England

    I wonder how much all those cold NW winds out of Canada will be effecting the colder water in the north Atlantic it was a constant theme in December, again now. Interesting to see if it stays cold thought this spring into next winter also?

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    Posted
  • Location: London, England
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers, cold winters
  • Location: London, England

    The kind of set up above has been very common through this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Well... :rofl:

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    21 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Good call lukey!!

     

    Cheers! Was banging on from September that this winter was going to be mild and wet with Atlantic driven weather 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    There was a lot of cold-pooling at the back end of 2014 and in to 2015. Lag affects from the 2013/14 stormy period- cold water being pulled to the surface by those storms?
    There's a correlation from a busy hurricane season a few years before the infamous 13/14  Winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
    On 1/5/2016 at 2:06 PM, Yarmy said:

    A conundrum: why is there such a pronounced negative SST anomaly over the Gulf of St Lawrence on the NOAA charts that doesn't exist on others?

    NOAA

    anomnight.1.4.2016.gif

    Unisys

    sst_anom-160103.gif

     

    Also, see here: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=326.14,46.25,689

    It's not ice as there isn't any. I can't remember (or find!) what the baseline year ranges are in each case, but one thought is that this area used to be covered in ice earlier in winter and that causes the discrepancy (the negative anomaly first started appearing at the end of October)?

    I would have thought the differences are due to the use of different climatologies / analysis data. I doubt it would be down to earlier ice cover as Unisys should be showing roughly the same as NOAA

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    On 28/01/2016 at 6:48 AM, Surrey said:

    Cheers! Was banging on from September that this winter was going to be mild and wet with Atlantic driven weather 

    Without wanting to rain on your parade too much, can I ask(and I mean this with respect and not with any sarcasm whatsoever) what made you come to this prediction? Was it anything to do with the cold SST's in the Atlantic or other factors or perhaps both?

    Either way in all fairness and to your credit, your prediction is a lot more accurate than other predictions I have read. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    7 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Without wanting to rain on your parade too much, can I ask(and I mean this with respect and not with any sarcasm whatsoever) what made you come to this prediction? Was it anything to do with the cold SST's in the Atlantic or other factors or perhaps both?

    Either way in all fairness and to your credit, your prediction is a lot more accurate than other predictions I have read. 

    Cheers, It was based on the jet and what the cooler waters might do to this and the EURO high over the UK. I thought it we have cooler Atlantic conditions we will in theory get a stronger jet and temp contrast across America and the Atlantic.. And that is whats happened 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    37 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Cheers, It was based on the jet and what the cooler waters might do to this and the EURO high over the UK. I thought it we have cooler Atlantic conditions we will in theory get a stronger jet and temp contrast across America and the Atlantic.. And that is whats happened 

    But the Jet is a consequence of the contrast in temperature at the tropopause, not at sea level. SSTs do not power the jet stream. The SST cold anomaly is a symptom of some phenomenon (perhaps many), not the cause. 

    Stefan Rahmstorf in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/25/climate-scientist-why-a-changing-ocean-circulation-could-worsen-east-coast-blizzards/?postshare=3691453822066745&tid=ss_tw

     

    Edited by Yarmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

    But the Jet is a consequence of the contrast in temperature at the tropopause, not at sea level. SSTs do not power the jet stream. The SST cold anomaly is a symptom of some phenomenon (perhaps many), not the cause. 

    Stefan Rahmstorf in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/25/climate-scientist-why-a-changing-ocean-circulation-could-worsen-east-coast-blizzards/?postshare=3691453822066745&tid=ss_tw

     

    I know, but what happens on the ground can impact what happens up there, no? Either way, I got it right, many didn't 

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I would have thought that the colder the water, the less intense the jet stream and higher chance of blocking in that area. Or maybe I'm wrong. 

    Given that this winter was due to be a strong El Nino, like that of 97/98, it was certainly a good call to label this one a mild, wet and windy one. What I don't think many saw coming was the conditions persisting this late into the season. I thought El Nino was supposed to have peaked in December but it seems to be hanging around like a bad smell.

    I bet if we had the synoptics of last winter we would have felt the benefit of those cold SSTs a bit more with colder Pm shots.

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    Quite a cool down in the tropical Atlantic over the last week.

    SqT2AMM.png

    Edited by Nouska
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    If you look back at some previous years, particularly leading up to the stormy 2013/14 Winter, SST's weren't that abnormal, so I don't think it makes much difference if there is exceptionally cold or warm pooling & SST's. The alignment and strength of the jet and a feed of moist, tropical air is what'll crank up low pressure systems. The cold/warm pooling will be a consequence of that, albeit, lagged somewhat.

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    January 2016 data now available and confirms the North Atlantic Cold Pool remains robust with the monthly mean SST the 4th coldest in the NOAA 1948 - 2016 time series.

    Once again, the NOAA data I have used is for Lat 44.8 to 60.0 and Long 315.0 to 345.0, the area shown by the red box: 

    56b2705d5547e_BFTVColdPool.thumb.png.0da

    Jan 1973 : 8.803 centigrade
    Jan 1983 : 8.923
    Jan 1990 : 8.942
    Jan 2016 : 8.943
    Long-term 1948/2016 Jan average : 9.553

     

    The latest anomaly chart from Unisys for 02 Feb 2016: 56b27097b688a_Unisyssst_anom02Feb2016.th

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    1 hour ago, IanR said:

    its going to ruin summer again isnt it ?:angry:

     

    I doubt it because again I'm not sure what (significant) influence the SSTs could have on the longwave patterns which ultimately determines our weather. 

    There's been a pretty remarkable change in the NOAA SST anomaly chart between the 28th Jan and 4th Feb:

     anomnight.1.28.2016.gif

    anomnight.2.4.2016.gif

     

    I'm not quite sure what to make of it. Notably, the strange extreme cold anomaly over the Gulf of St Lawrence has disappeared and now agrees with the SST analyses from other sources.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    12 hours ago, Yarmy said:

    I doubt it because again I'm not sure what (significant) influence the SSTs could have on the longwave patterns which ultimately determines our weather. 

    There's been a pretty remarkable change in the NOAA SST anomaly chart between the 28th Jan and 4th Feb:

     anomnight.1.28.2016.gif

    anomnight.2.4.2016.gif

     

    I'm not quite sure what to make of it. Notably, the strange extreme cold anomaly over the Gulf of St Lawrence has disappeared and now agrees with the SST analyses from other sources.

     

    On 2/1/2016 at 0:11 PM, Nouska said:

    Quite a cool down in the tropical Atlantic over the last week.

     

    Not posted in here since last year..

    Yarmy...

    I must say to me that what is really striking on these charts is -

    1) The Atlantic cold pool has extended south and east. It has now appeared off the portugese coasts.

    2) The amazing cold pool of the St Lawrence coast has now disappeared. But this could well be to do with the fluctuating temperatures off the North American land mass and the wind direction. We will be able to see this in the next week if -35C uppers are involved around this area  and as forecast they move out into the Atlantic.

    3) Worth mentioning I think is that the oceans of the whole world look to be cooling now if this one graph is representative.

    The El Nino central  reds are starting to fade to oranges, the southern ocean has turned into a mass of blue, the Australian west coast anomally has turned to a larger  blue area and the warm blob off Madagascar is melting away and now even shows some blues. The Indian ocean no longer looks nearly as warm.

    As Nouska has pointed out this cooling is now showing in the tropical central/ north Atlantic as well. The cooling also now appears to be taking hold between the Capes and is extending the cold in the southern oceans further north..

     

    SqT2AMM.png

     

    The only small area of warming are as you say are  the east coastal American changes   and the same off the east coast of Japan and the far east of China.

    Could this be the first signs of the waning El Nino and will it affect the North Atlantic anomaly to give a kick in one direction or the other?

    MIA

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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