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The team from the RAPID project set sail this coming Thursday for a 6-week cruise to capture the latest 14 months of data from their array across the Atlantic. They’ve set down a challenge:

 

Join the experts and respond to the RAPID Challenge 2015

On 15th October scientists and engineers from the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) leave Southampton for a 6-week expedition on RRS Discovery (IV) to gather the most recent data from the RAPID array of moorings across the Atlantic from Florida to Morocco. The moorings, with sensors that measure temperature, salinity and currents from the sea floor to near the surface, monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26°N.

 

The AMOC transports heat northwards in the Atlantic, and is important for the climate of Northwest Europe.  Recent studies indicate that it is decreasing in strength, and the decline in heat transport has been implicated in the formation of a 'cold blob' in the North Atlantic.  

 

If you read this and want to have a go at your own ocean prediction, you are very welcome to download the data, carry out your own analysis, and let us have your own estimate. The deadline for submission is 31st December 2015.  In early 2016 a preliminary analysis of the new data will be available. The estimates that come closest will be published on the RAPID website…..

 

There’s been two entrants so far. The Met Office have had a go and their headline prediction is:

 

…… an increase of the AMOC from Oct 2014-Sept 2015 from the 2009-2014 average by 0.7 Sv……..

 

(For interest: 0.5 Sv is half a million cubic metres per second. The AMOC typically runs at approx. 18.0 Sv, so that's a surprisingly large increase from the Met).

 

Oxford University are the second entrant and predict:

 

……observations will show a mean AMOC over this period which has been roughly equal to that over the previous few years (a small increase of 0.3 ± 0.2 Sv over the 2009-2014 mean).

 

Anybody fancy putting in an entry for Netweather?  http://rapidchallenge2015.blogspot.co.uk/

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So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a differe

Yeah, I think that's quite a disingenuous chart (no reflection on yourself , of course!).   If we look at the months used in that chart, and the 9 months leading up to them, we get the following:  

The 13 hours later this arrived..   Many thanks for your enquiry regarding North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. I have spoken to the relevant scientists within the Met Office Hadley Centre who h

Posted Images

New research undertaken at Southampton University finds that it would take a century for UK weather to recover from the cooling effect of a total shut-down of the AMOC. There was an article in the Telegraph yesterday about the research:

 

post-20040-0-45999500-1444567350_thumb.j

 

The full published paper is on the Nature website: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep14877

 

And how about this temperature anomaly 95 years after a shut-down; the UK looks a bit chilly! :)

 

post-20040-0-60000000-1444567640_thumb.j

 

An academic study or ........?

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depressing stuff

 

Not sure what you refer to as depressing Ian (the potential cold or heat). But for sure the overwhelming sea of red (higher) anomaly in the temps predicted for 95 years from now is. Not for me personally of course - I'll be long upstairs. :angel: But for future snow and skiing lovers?? Maybe the only viable ski resorts will be in the Scottish Highlands?!! Time to set up a trust for the kids with shares in Aviemore!! :laugh:

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Just how big of a pool this Atlantic cold pool really is? Well, it actually goes pretty deep and you could actually say that its a pool. :D This is a cross-section through the 50N lat line, versus the climatology and versus last year. Data is from Glosea5 analysis (FOAM).

 

votemper-in-meto-glo-phy.png votemper-in-meto-glo-phy.png

 

Recretos...

 

Great find.

 

How about dates in between?.

 

It looks as though the west is cooling bottom up. The middle and east it is not clear.

 

A date in the middle should show it.

 

Also is it possible to go further back to see where it first started.?

 

MIAi

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Just how big of a pool this Atlantic cold pool really is? Well, it actually goes pretty deep and you could actually say that its a pool. :D This is a cross-section through the 50N lat line, versus the climatology and versus last year. Data is from Glosea5 analysis (FOAM).

 

votemper-in-meto-glo-phy.png votemper-in-meto-glo-phy.png

 

 

Great stuff as ever. I've drawn a line on a map of the North Atlantic so people can see where the transect is located approximately:

 

https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zZOfHcil9JPE.kEGOOJivAoI8

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Adding more graphics of surface SST anomalies, over various latitudes, showing the progression of the cold pool this year over time. 

 

dbfgd.png anom-ins-123.png anom-in-123.png dd.png dfgd.png

 

And this is a time-series, of monthly mean values form January 1985 to December 2014, so the past 30 years, at point 50N-26W. it is seen how lately the cold waters are more on a uprise, probably preceding the eventual onset of the cold AMO phase down the line somewhere.

rew.png  loc.png

Edited by Recretos
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Good work Singularity.

Tho you have to understand that it can also be reverse correlated. Constant zonal wind, or better yet constant low pressure at that area, will cause lots of surface wind stress, affecting the MLD and essentially causing mixing and upwelling and thus negativev anomalies.

Its kinda the chicken and the egg situation at first glance. :)

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Good work Singularity.

Tho you have to understand that it can also be reverse correlated. Constant zonal wind, or better yet constant low pressure at that area, will cause lots of surface wind stress, affecting the MLD and essentially causing mixing and upwelling and thus negativev anomalies.

Its kinda the chicken and the egg situation at first glance. :)

 

Thanks, it's fair to say that I am inspired by the likes of you  :hi:

 

So I suppose the trick is identifying mechanisms that may be driving upwelling and cooler SSTs independently of the surface wind stress, such as the behaviour of oceanic circulations (gyres?) such as the AMOC.

 

Those epic graphics of yours show some eastward progression of the -ve SST anomalies at 55*N during the summer season (and similar at 50*N but a bit later in time) followed by a recent retreat back west. A very different story down at 45*N and 40*N though... had it not been for mostly high wind shear in the development regions we could have had some long-lived tropical cyclones wandering the subtropics this year.

 

With the AMO operating in the order of decades, I'm guessing zonal wind anomalies aren't the main player there... but then, what is? This is why science never gets old - with each answer comes at least one question and usually many more!  :D

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Here's the SST anomalies and 300 mb zonal wind anomalies for September 2015, plotted on the same base map for easy comparison.

 

 

 

Spotting some signs of a correlation, I decided to overlay the images and draw the SST anomaly regions onto the zonal wind anomaly map. The result is as follows:

 

300mb%20and%20SST%20for%20Sep%20%2715%20

 

In the Atlantic, the main positive areas of zonal wind anomaly - hence where the jet stream spent a lot of time - are just north of the main areas of positive SST anomaly. Meanwhile to the north and northeast of the negative SST anomaly region south of Greenland, there's anomalously low zonal winds.

Are you not getting that round the wrong way? The anomaly is strongly positive to the NE of the cold pool. ie stronger jet both north and south of the UK

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Are you not getting that round the wrong way? The anomaly is strongly positive to the NE of the cold pool. ie stronger jet both north and south of the UK

 

I think I see what you mean - I should have said 'just north and to the east' to be clear enough  :fool:

 

North of Iceland, Svalbard etc. they anomalies are strongly positive, yes  :)

 

Edit: I've altered my post to reflect this now. Thanks for pointing it out, in fact!  :good:

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So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a different perspective about how it interact with the ocean currents and AMOC, perhaps kinda like mountains do with atmospheric flow.

 

atl.png

Stunning graphic you really are in a league of your own. :)

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So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a different perspective about how it interact with the ocean currents and AMOC, perhaps kinda like mountains do with atmospheric flow.

 

atl.png

So, middle earth then.

post-6273-0-71048900-1444762638_thumb.jp

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Thanks :)

Its fun yes, and also very mind-heavy. :) Not to mention the vast amounts of patience it takes, when you come to the point when after 2 hours of work your computer freezes while rendering and loading data, and you dont know if it will un-feeze and finish the job, or you just have to kill the process and start all over again. :)

With my old comp the usual solution was to kill the process and start over until it freezes again and then you kill it again and start over and it freezes again and so on. And each time you change the configuration a bit, reducing the quality or sample size and subsets, hoping it will work and load, but it just doesnt cut it. You just cant drive 200mph with an old 1.2l engine, now can you. :)

So I decided to upgrade my 1.2 engine from 3GB RAM which I almost fried on many occasions, and a 2.4Ghz Intel proc. and a 256MB graphic card, to a 2.0 16v turbo engine. :D

AsRock H81 mother board

Intel i7-4770 @3.9Ghz Turbo

16GB Dual channel DDR3 RAM 1600mhz (2x8GB)

Gigabyte GeForce GTX-750ti 2GB VRAM

System disk SSD 150GB

HD SATA 2TB

Windows 10 64bit

Its not the best comp out there, but together with a full HD 22" monitor and a gaming mouse/keyboard and a full 5-year warranty, it wasnt a bad deal for 800 quid. :D

Now I am really having fun making plots, especially 3D. :)

full 3D animations are my next goal.

Genius!!!

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Really like what you have done with a home based computer.

Once upon a time far in the distant past I was an Oceanographer, so I can appreciate how much time and effort you have put into completing this task.

 

Watching the SST closely and awaiting the results from Rapid's latest sail.

Interesting and uncertain times ahead.

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