Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Mokidugway]

God almighty Richard, move to save your sanity please, Aberdeen isn't the best place to live for manic depressive's though don't think you have any highs not on here anyway.

Southern California would be a good place !!.

[JeffC]

God almighty Richard, move to save your sanity please, Aberdeen isn't the best place to live for the kind of weather you are seeking, it hasn't been that bad of a summer down here.

To be fair, it hasn't been quite that bad here, but I'd say it has been a pretty lacklustre attempt at a summer in the lakes.

I'm a coldie, but 2015 has made little or no attempt at anything approaching sensible weather for summer in the uk.

Edited September 11, 2015 by JeffC

[Mair Snaw]

Early this year....

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The Gfs 12z has a much more pleasant low res for the most part with more in the way of high pressure than the 6z but most of high res continues to look cool and very autumnal with bands of rain and occasionally strong winds interspersed by sunshine and showers. There is an improvement by next weekend, especially across the southeast corner with some dry and sunny weather as high pressure builds in across the near continent with temps around 21c for a time in the SE.

 

More like it Frosty! High pressure rules, low pressure sucks

[Methuselah]

Early this year....

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

I'm still waiting the '100 days of snow' that Rao promised for 2014!

[summer blizzard]

Both GFS and GEM have a hurricane in the fray (wave with a 60% chance of development in 5 days) in the 5-10 day timeframe. Expect some changeable modeling depending on track and intensity (if indeed it forms).

Edited September 12, 2015 by summer blizzard

[tinybill]

Both GFS and GEM have a hurricane in the fray (wave with a 60% chance of development in 5 days) in the 5-10 day timeframe. Expect some changeable modeling depending on track and intensity (if indeed it forms).

the best idea on what could happen i watch the weather forecast on BBC  news  at 955   i find that  better then  then the  Sunday evening  one!!!

[knocker]

Well I wouldn't put any money on the evolution

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Winter Cold]

Yeah and the ECM at T240 was hinting at just that tonight with warm air wafting north:

 

  

 

 

Certainly a fun week coming up for autumn storm fans, like me. Its started early this year!

 

Wednesday afternoon and evening look fun, with what looks like the first opportunity for gales and rain this autumn. If it moves up overnight then theres few thigs better than listening to the wind and rain outside

 

  

Edited September 12, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Costa Del Fal]

Hehe nice weather...as Winter awaits

Spring and Summer 2016 awaits too funnily enough.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Spring and Summer 2016 awaits too funnily enough.

 

no doubt it will be dominated by low pressure, just like the winter before it '15-'16

[mushymanrob]

not summer though is it!, around Wimbledon I always think as true summer, light until 10pm, high sun, no signs of autumn anywhere,

 

didnt say it was... i totally agree with your interpretation of summer!

 

Who said it was? Just enjoy what you have got. You almost sound like you don't want any sun and warmth!

 

plenty... not here right now but its the old , mantra trotted out by some "sepember is a summer month" etc...

anyway... we are in for the grottiest week of the year (ok some in the northwest have had nothing but gloom and rain), i suppose i shouldnt moan as its been pretty dry (perfect from a work pov), but with rain never far away, its not looking pleasant at all as we slip away towards autumn proper (leaf fall).

i prefer winter to sepember, winters an honest season, september is a summer wannabe but never can be ... horrid time of the year.

[markyo]

September is by far one of the best months of the year. Less chance of extreme heat,more usable weather coupled with interesting weather at times! Totally different to high summer when oppressive heat can stop you getting out and about.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wednesday setup, is the sort of thing that would give feet of snow to levels above 300m in winter, horrid weather for low levels at best with sleet mixed in, just as well it's in mid Sept for me living here

[mushymanrob]

September is by far one of the best months of the year. Less chance of extreme heat,more usable weather coupled with interesting weather at times! Totally different to high summer when oppressive heat can stop you getting out and about.

 

how often has summer been so hot its stopped you getting out and about?

one of the best things about high summer heat is that you can use the garden in the evenings, sitting out in sleeveless shirts, enjoying the atmosphere, the scents and sounds of a summers evening. this last summer didnt have oppressive heat (other then an odd few hours away from the southeast) but a lot of cool usable sunny dry weather (away from the northwest).

what have we got now in mid september?... cool, wet, musty, dank nothingness.

[Scorcher]

how often has summer been so hot its stopped you getting out and about?

one of the best things about high summer heat is that you can use the garden in the evenings, sitting out in sleeveless shirts, enjoying the atmosphere, the scents and sounds of a summers evening. this last summer didnt have oppressive heat (other then an odd few hours away from the southeast) but a lot of cool usable sunny dry weather (away from the northwest).

what have we got now in mid september?... cool, wet, musty, dank nothingness.

 

I agree with your sentiments about summer as you know, but I much prefer September to any of the other autumn or winter months. Not sure why you have such angst towards it Mushy! The grass still grows, it's still green, most of the trees are still green. The day length is also still reasonable. You can also get plenty of warm pleasant days, which admittedly are not the same as warm days in July, but the potential is always there for the temperature to rise above 20C- this is not possible between late October and late March generally.

[markyo]

Any thing over 30c is oppressive in my opinion,just a waste of a day when it gets as high as that. Its not heat intolerance I work as a autoclave engineer so 35c to 40c with 100% humidity is a normal working day for me.

[MP-R]

Anyone remember 05th/06th Sept 2008, 11th-13th Sept 2011 or 23rd-26th Sept 2012 - amongst the wettest and most unsettled spells of those years, especially the latter which produced my wettest day ever recorded with over 100mm. SSTs are typically at their warmest in September and given the right (typical) setup, there's room for a lot of rain. This week is no exception and it looks like the Atlantic onslaught is arriving a week earlier than many years. This week is looking very unsettled then a possibly settling down over the weekend before an encroachment of weather systems during next week - lots to look at and by no means boring. With thundery downpours today, brightness and strong winds tomorrow, a notable rain event on Weds/Thurs, a cool northwesterly on Friday, then a settled weekend, one could even say the weather is looking interesting. Much more what I would expect for the time of year personally. More along the lines of 2010-2013.

[mushymanrob]

I agree with your sentiments about summer as you know, but I much prefer September to any of the other autumn or winter months. Not sure why you have such angst towards it Mushy! The grass still grows, it's still green, most of the trees are still green. The day length is also still reasonable. You can also get plenty of warm pleasant days, which admittedly are not the same as warm days in July, but the potential is always there for the temperature to rise above 20C- this is not possible between late October and late March generally.

 

think its because 'the parties over'... im very concious of the fading summer and even the nice days (which you rightly highlight) do nothing for me. i like autumn proper, even though its colder, darker and usually wetter.

[tinybill]

think its because 'the parties over'... im very concious of the fading summer and even the nice days (which you rightly highlight) do nothing for me. i like autumn proper, even though its colder, darker and usually wetter.

plus we can start looking north  on the models for the cold weather!!

[Polar Maritime]

plus we can start looking north  on the models for the cold weather!!

 

Like this 

Edited September 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Like this 

 

first FI cold blast I have seen this autumn, looks around 12C but feel like winter in the wind

[Mair Snaw]

Like this 

Can i order one of these for end of December/Jan...

[mushymanrob]

plus we can start looking north  on the models for the cold weather!!

 

 

or southwest , depending on your preferance of course!

[knocker]

Quote from Matt Hugo

 

"Lows from the S and SW are never straightforward...yet another synoptic evolution that has not been modelled/handeled well at all".