Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Winter Cold]

Yes it looks like this one has caught us out this time! Its turned out to be a lovely day over most of the UK!   It seems the rain band is hours delayed from what was modelled and shown on TV yesterday.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some lovely bright Autumnal sunshine here. All depends on how far the front pushes North but i may get some rain around 6pm.

[Fozfoster]

Rain within the hour here i think....

[William of Walworth]

Current model output beyond the immediate/short term, is pretty frustrating to this here model watcher. Inconsistent as ever.

 

My focus of hopecasting for mostly dry/reasonably pleasant weather centres completely around the w/e of Friday 25th to Monday 28th September. For Gloucestershire/Forest of Dean -- our very very last campervan outing to our very last (openair) music festival (with beer n cider too!) of the very late summer, will be that weekend! 

 

After that, hibernation from this forum beckons for me so if fierce/wet/stormy/Jet-driven weather arrives south of Scotland from Tuesaday 29th, I can cope. But no earlier please!

 

Some pretty nice FI candy from some models for the above dates has been posted on the main Model Output thread. But FI is FI, 'some' is the operative word, therefore nails continue to be bitten ...

 

Some of my festie friends heading to the Alchemy Festival in rural Lincolnshire this coming weekend (from tomorrow night, Thursday 17th) look as if they might be in luck for dry -- again!

[knocker]

Well looking at the GEFS and ecm anomalies tonight the 25th is around the time we say goodbye to the upper trough and look for some pressure rises and more HP influence. So at the moment I would say your good to go but don't quote me.

[Milhouse]

The weekend really typifies what weve had to endure for several months now. Promising ridge builds over the UK but within a couple of days it is non existent as the mid Atlantic high takes over channeling low pressure back towards us. Least we can still hope for bonus nice days like today even though low pressure is in control.

[stainesbloke]

Latter part of the GFS run would be causing mass hysteria if it occurred in January lol.

[rain_shadow]

Well, cloudy was in the forecast for yesterday (cloud cover arriving from the SE), but we had full sunshine all day (15 miles further south, it was a different story though). Sunny spells in the forecast for today and we managed with 10 mins of sunshine late pm when the thin cloud cover finally broke. 

Edited September 17, 2015 by skyboy

[dbaloo]

been as the blues are appearing!.....sorry mods feel free to move if necessary

[knocker]

Dear god they're waking already, refreshed and hunting an icy blast. Be afraid, be very afraid,

 

[rain_shadow]

When there is finally no cloud, way was given to fog...Laughable. Edit 08.22: Sun breaks through now    

Edited September 19, 2015 by skyboy

[Due South]

El Nino not the big driver for UK Winter. Cold pool in North Atlantic close to position in 2009 much bigger factor ( Big Joe B) Twitter

[conor123]

Is there any explanation why once again cloud has convected up around 10am, spread out, flattened out and blocked the sun all day since like it does in the Summer??

Normally come September these mini high's bring clear skies but it's been like those classic sunny start/end, 9am-6pm muck days we get May - August today! 

[cheese]

A fine, sunny, warm day in Leeds.

[Costa Del Fal]

Is there any explanation why once again cloud has convected up around 10am, spread out, flattened out and blocked the sun all day since like it does in the Summer??

Normally come September these mini high's bring clear skies but it's been like those classic sunny start/end, 9am-6pm muck days we get May - August today!

No such thing here in Stourbridge. In fact the sun hasn't gone behind a cloud all day!

[Costa Del Fal]

Today started off cloudy for me, before brightening up at aound noon. Now there's just the odd fair weather cumulus floating around and it's reached 20C. Very respectable for mid-late September, if you ask me.

 

Hopefully something similar tomorrow, before we lose the high on Monday.

Looks a lot cloudier tomorrow sadly. Or at least much hazier especially for you lot in the NW.

[Costa Del Fal]

Who knows, there have been many days recently that have been much sunnier than forecasted, so hopefully tomorrow will be similar...

Indeed I am hopeful in that respect too. Would be surprised if it is the same as today though. But tbh cloud amounts have been overestimated more than underestimated this year. Better it that way than the other to be pleasantly surprised though.

[conor123]

No such thing here in Stourbridge. In fact the sun hasn't gone behind a cloud all day!

Yeh I noticed on Sat24 it kept piling into Shropshire and then a line of haze to from 3pm to top it off whilst was clear just south and east 

[rain_shadow]

Totally failed forecast for yesterday, Sunday. Overcast from 7am onwards. The best recipe for depressed max temp, as it was clear exactly until the Sun rose...

[markyo]

No real sign of any settled weather in the next reliable time frame,proper autumn fair. Charts more than 5 days out are basically just straw clutching imo.

[Costa Del Fal]

No real sign of any settled weather in the next reliable time frame,proper autumn fair. Charts more than 5 days out are basically just straw clutching imo.

Bet you wouldn't be saying that if it was colder weather on the horizon! Nice try at reverse psychology though! But the agreement for high pressure is pretty strong now with good consensus.

[Yarmy]

Pretty good support from the 2 major models (that go that far), for significant HP to build after this week, imo.

 

GFS at T192

 

 

ECM at T192

 

 

 

Maybe the ECM is over-egging it, but it's been consistent over the last few runs I've glanced at.

 

GEM is not interested though:

 

[markyo]

imo the charts are just a very loose guide as to what may happen,anything over 5 days is just guess work,cold or hot weather it makes no difference. We are a island nation in possible the most unpredictable location on earth weather wise,thats what makes it so enjoyable!

[knocker]

imo the charts are just a very loose guide as to what may happen,anything over 5 days is just guess work,cold or hot weather it makes no difference. We are a island nation in possible the most unpredictable location on earth weather wise,thats what makes it so enjoyable!

 

Yes but the knowledge of the physical laws, the understanding of natural processes,  the advent of numerical forecasting and ever increasing computer power means the guessing has become more refined.

Edited September 21, 2015 by knocker

[markyo]

Totally agree,the advancement in computer technology has made modern day forecasting so much more reliable. The interpretation of the data has also improved beyond anything that could be imagined 20 years ago but the uk climate is so fickle any forecast or chart more than 5 days should only ever be seen as a guide,to many variables come into play at that range.