Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[mountain shadow]

What do people think the chances of a Greenland high are this winter, I can't see one forming in the models yet to be honest.

The chances have certainly increased since about two weeks ago. The polar vortex is already under attack early in the season from waves in Alaska and Siberia. The GFS longer range is forecasting a split and a rare December SSW remains a small possibility. You only have to look at the North Hemisphere charts to see how disturbed the vortex is.

[throwoff]

​

Reload - Reload - Reload, do you see that deep cold pushing in from the north. Has to be a Nov 2010 event.

 

Be shocked if this comes true. 

 

Mind you, I bet I said something similar before it happened in 2010.

[Deep Snow please]

Be shocked if this comes true. 

 

Mind you, I bet I said something similar before it happened in 2010.

 

Honestly if someone asked me to draw a model that roughly represented my wish-list for semi-realistic winter weather in late November the drawing would look a bit like that. The edge of purple might be over Scotland but that's about it. But it's probably just the GFS spewing out from coming back from the pub.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Deep Snow please

[Liam J]

The thing that stands out to me is the trend on recent runs for less potential ridging into Greenland and to shift and intensify the polar vortex in our side of the hemisphere, so it could be very unsettled and potentially stormy as we move towards December if this is the emerging pattern. 

 

A few charts from the 12z GFS.

 

 

And 00z ECM

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Liam J]

12z ECM is another very disturbed run, as I mentioned above potentially turning very stormy.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TSNWK]

Yep! First let down of the winter.. With models backing away from the northern blocking teezes from early this week.. Form dictates a quiet couple days in the model thread, maybe a uptick in the current conditions this weekend. Then folk brush themselves down and hunt for the holy grail of northern blocking.....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yep! First let down of the winter.. With models backing away from the northern blocking teezes from early this week.. Form dictates a quiet couple days in the model thread, maybe a uptick in the current conditions this weekend. Then folk brush themselves down and hunt for the holy grail of northern blocking.....

 

not really let down, only snow was really going to be for Scotland, not expecting any here, generally a 'mild' night predicted for the south on Saturday with rain as a warm front moves down from the north

[mountain shadow]

Yep! First let down of the winter.. With models backing away from the northern blocking teezes from early this week.. Form dictates a quiet couple days in the model thread, maybe a uptick in the current conditions this weekend. Then folk brush themselves down and hunt for the holy grail of northern blocking.....

Unless I was looking at different charts I saw no indications of a long spell of Northerly blocking in the model output.

[Ravelin]

Unless I was looking at different charts I saw no indications of a long spell of Northerly blocking in the model output.

Yep, the most they were teasing with was one or two more brief northerly outbreaks.

[John Badrick]

not really let down, only snow was really going to be for Scotland, not expecting any here, generally a 'mild' night predicted for the south on Saturday with rain as a warm front moves down from the north

Mild on Saturday ? Where did you get that from??? It's gonna be anything but mild on Saturday, pretty much everywhere in the Uk including the south!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Mild on Saturday ? Where did you get that from??? It's gonna be anything but mild on Saturday, pretty much everywhere in the Uk including the south!

 

Saturday night, not daytime, warm front expected to push down from the north bringing rain to southern areas, wintry mix/wet snow to the north

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Saturday is looking like the coldest day for most areas, and Saturday night is looking to be the coldest night. The only precipitation will come from sleet/snow showers.

 

just bbc/fax clearly show a warm front pushing down, bbc symbols give me rain Sat night

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Sat/Sun into Monday look cold indeed.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[John Badrick]

just bbc/fax clearly show a warm front pushing down, bbc symbols give me rain Sat night

If you get any precipitation Saturday night it will be too cold for rain !!!!

[doctormog]

Yep, the most they were teasing with was one or two more brief northerly outbreaks.

Yes, this is factually correct. Anything else was from one or two "rogue" operational charts. Having said that the northerly on Friday/Saturday looks rather wintry up here with a decent chance of a good covering of snow even to low levels.

Edited November 18, 2015 by doctormog

[Liam J]

Saturday night, mild? Compared to recent weeks with double figures it's going to feel very cold if these charts verify...

 

Edited November 18, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Milhouse]

After a brief dip the mean returns to normal indicating the month will close out in rather average fashion.

 

[Polar Low]

Looking forward to the weekend being right on the coast. Fancy a dusting, should certainly see falling snow at the very least. Encouraging.

[The Enforcer]

Saturday night, mild? Compared to recent weeks with double figures it's going to feel very cold if these charts verify...

 

nm96.pngnm97.pngnm98.pngnm99.png

The warm front/mild sector doesn't seem to have materialised over the UK according to those charts.

[johnholmes]

Yes, this is factually correct. Anything else was from one or two "rogue" operational charts. Having said that the northerly on Friday/Saturday looks rather wintry up here with a decent chance of a good covering of snow even to low levels.

 

I wonder where 'up here' is? I have no idea of your nearest town so that comment is not much use to me I am afraid.

Please put your nearest town in your avatar ?

thank you

[Milhouse]

I'll be honest, I'm looking forward to the sunshine this weekend, but I'm dreading the wind chill factor. Given the very mild weather we've enjoyed/endured (depending on your preferences) and the cold Arctic air coming down, it will feel really quite bitter on Saturday night.

 

If it was just sunshine and light winds, it would probably be okay.

 

Thats why ill be looking out for lovely high pressure domination this winter with light winds. Slight frosts at night leading to pleasant enough days maxing around 6c. It wont set peoples pulses racing with excitement but for me it will be most pleasant.

[Liam J]

The warm front/mild sector doesn't seem to have materialised over the UK according to those charts.

Not much of a warm sector on the NetWx-MR model, dew points a little to high near to the coast though.  

 

[Liam J]

Saturday night... 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thats why ill be looking out for lovely high pressure domination this winter with light winds. Slight frosts at night leading to pleasant enough days maxing around 6c. It wont set peoples pulses racing with excitement but for me it will be most pleasant.

#

what I'm looking for as well! non of this Atlantic stormy, PM air crap!

[doctormog]

I wonder where 'up here' is? I have no idea of your nearest town so that comment is not much use to me I am afraid.

Please put your nearest town in your avatar ?

thank you

I'd rather not but the location is Aberdeen. I guess putting it in my post may have helped!

P.S. There is a bit of a hint in my signature!

Edited November 18, 2015 by doctormog