Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[MP-R]

I'd be very surprised if we get a 'cold' CET month follow on a month or so after this November which could turn out very mild. I've been recording late autumn/winter weather since 1983 and have noted of the last decade or so when we get such mild occurring month/months early in the season a cold month does not 'pop' up soon after,Maybe a cold spell maybe but that'll do me after what I'm seeing on the models at present!

 

Indeed, I would think (going by previous bouts of Atlantic cr*p) that this pattern could last until at least mid-December with higher chances of cold coming after mid-month. So perhaps a nearer average December with January and February being the colder than average months (Jan and Feb are much more likely to be bring cold spells than December anyway!). All speculation of course but I can't see a drastic change to long-term different conditions happening simply and easily.

[Bristawl Si]

Seriously worried now. 

I'd be "seriously worried" if i was seriously worried about weather model outputs and what they are showing at any time.

[mushymanrob]

anyone looked at previous mild novembers to see how the following winters turned out yet.I'd rather have this very mild weather now then jan or febuary anyway.plenty of time for dramatic changes yet.Well james madden is forcasting a severev winter,thats good enough for me 

 

id be very surprised if theres any recurring pattern. a mild november doesnt lead to 'pattern x' everytime further down the line.

 

Tomrorrow's pattern looks perfect for me - dull, stormy-looking clouds with a soft, swift, mild 15C breeze blowing in my face and the odd spot or two of light rain. Then at night temperatures won't fall very far either. Something quite magical about a day like that so late into the year!

 

Saying that, Friday looks quite interesting too, with the possibilty of some thundery showers in this area.

 

couldnt agree more! thoughroughly enjoying this weather we currently have - and its looking like theres plenty more to come with no major pattern change in the next 7 - 10 days at least if the anomalies are correct.

i do expect an abrupt change though, sometime before crimbo. but it wouldnt suprise me if we get more of this throughout the winter.

tbh id love this in february...

[cheese]

Things are getting desperate when charts showing mins of 1C are a cause for excitement..

Edited November 10, 2015 by cheese

[throwoff]

Still 3 weeks from winter proper. 

 

In the few years I have been here I have never seen a true cold blast materialise that was anything beyond 48 hours on the models.

 

Once the cold is in then things can move very quickly but I wouldn't pay too much heed this far out from true winter to models in FI.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Plenty of time for the models to start showing wintry conditions for places further South.

 

At least the North will be getting their first taste of winter this Friday and subsequently again in the pm incursions forecast next week. A big change from the miserable, mucky mild weather we're enduring currently!

[SLEETY]

yes lots of time i surprised the met are forcasting that up to end of dec will be mostly mild with sw winds,can they really forecast that far out now with any accuracy ,thats 6 weeks.i know they use their global model bt t was very bold of fergieweather to seem so confident .

Edited November 10, 2015 by SLEETY

[knocker]

yes lots of time i surprised the met are forcasting that up to end of dec will be mostly mild with sw winds,can they really forecast that far out now with any accuracy ,thats 6 weeks.i know they use their global model bt t was very bold of fergieweather to seem so confident .

 

You have to remember that these longer forecast period always come with caveats vis accuracy but as I understand it, putting together all the known indicators and not just their own model, the percentage play at the moment is as they have stated. Of course something that hasn't been included in the equation, keeping in mind the dynamics of ocean.troposphere and stratosphere interactions are hugely complex, can always stick it's nib in but you have to go along with state of the science that is currently known. In any case Joan the Wad is in complete agreement with their musings so confidence is high.

 

And to ensure that they don't get misquoted (heaven forbid that would happen in this area) their latest 6-30

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Nov 2015 to Tuesday 24 Nov 2015:

 

It looks likely to be mild across the majority of the UK on Sunday with further rain, particularly on the high ground in the northwest. However, southern and eastern areas should remain dry with some bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, the latest indications are that a mobile westerly airflow is likely to dominate the weather. This will bring changeable and often windy conditions with rain at times and a continuing risk of gales. It will often be bright and rather cold across northern areas with blustery showers, turning wintry over the higher ground at times. Further south it will be generally cloudier and also milder, although even here a few sunny periods are likely at times.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Nov 2015 to Wednesday 9 Dec 2015:

 

This period is likely to be characterised by a general northwest-southeast split across the British Isles. Various frontal zones are expected to move areas of rain across the United Kingdom from the Atlantic, these interspersed by clearer, showery interludes and perhaps some drier spells, particularly in the south. The northwest is most likely to see the heaviest rain and strongest winds, with gales, but the south may also see these at times. There are likely to be large day to day variations in the temperature, with milder, wetter spells interspersed with colder, drier spells, although overall it should average out at around or slightly above normal for the time of year.

 

Updated at: 1404 on Tue 10 Nov 2015

Edited November 10, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

A further observation. I've noticed that the negativity towards the METO longer range outputs increases the further said outputs deviate from the desired outcome. I suspect if the forecast for the beginning of December included a sudden pattern change to a probable Arctic blast and possible white out conditions the murmerings would have been more along the lines of, "we must remember they are professionals, are privy to vast amounts of information we aren't, so no reason to think this won't come to pass".

[fergieweather]

A further observation. I've noticed that the negativity towards the METO longer range outputs increases the further said outputs deviate from the desired outcome. I suspect if the forecast for the beginning of December included a sudden pattern change to a probable Arctic blast and possible white out conditions the murmerings would have been more along the lines of, "we must remember they are professionals, are privy to vast amounts of information we aren't, so no reason to think this won't come to pass".

 Appreciate this deserves to move now to the METO longer range forecast thread, but as a final note, the cold aficionados should rest assured there are a fair number of folk at UKMO who'd equally enjoy the winter to be colder / blocked / snowy etc. There's no room for hopecasting however - the medium range models (EC/Glosea) are in good agreement re the broadly westerly prevalence now to early Dec, albeit with some Pm spells quite possible (much as latest GFS incorporates). If and when a key pattern change starts to appear with any confidence, Exeter wouldn't shy away from noting such in their outlooks. There's no smoke and mirrors going on - just a reflection of what modelling shows right now and, it must be said, unambiguously so.

[Hocus Pocus]

Appreciate this deserves to move now to the METO longer range forecast thread, but as a final note, the cold aficionados should rest assured there are a fair number of folk at UKMO who'd equally enjoy the winter to be colder / blocked / snowy etc. There's no room for hopecasting however - the medium range models (EC/Glosea) are in good agreement re the broadly westerly prevalence now to early Dec, albeit with some Pm spells quite possible (much as latest GFS incorporates). If and when a key pattern change starts to appear with any confidence, Exeter wouldn't shy away from noting such in their outlooks. There's no smoke and mirrors going on - just a reflection of what modelling shows right now and, it must be said, unambiguously so.

What a great post and a reminder to all that the pros don't let preferences and wishes get in the way of professional analysis. Now would you mind donning your snowman outfit on and performing a snow dance for us all as the ouput is rather uninspiring from a coldies perspective.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

 Appreciate this deserves to move now to the METO longer range forecast thread, but as a final note, the cold aficionados should rest assured there are a fair number of folk at UKMO who'd equally enjoy the winter to be colder / blocked / snowy etc. There's no room for hopecasting however - the medium range models (EC/Glosea) are in good agreement re the broadly westerly prevalence now to early Dec, albeit with some Pm spells quite possible (much as latest GFS incorporates). If and when a key pattern change starts to appear with any confidence, Exeter wouldn't shy away from noting such in their outlooks. There's no smoke and mirrors going on - just a reflection of what modelling shows right now and, it must be said, unambiguously so.

 

Ian, just to reinforce a question that was posed on the previous page - is there any known upper limit for how long a setup (i.e. that which we have at present) can last?  I appreciate that there is possibly an infinitesimally-small probability of it lasting for any length of time, but at what point would you and your colleagues feel this probability reduces to a point where it an reasonably be discounted?  What I'm getting-at is: are the cries of "Winter's over!" in any way valid (not that I've previously subscribed to that view at this stage)?

[knocker]

 Appreciate this deserves to move now to the METO longer range forecast thread, but as a final note, the cold aficionados should rest assured there are a fair number of folk at UKMO who'd equally enjoy the winter to be colder / blocked / snowy etc.

 

Obviously none of them were at Larkhill in 62/63 Ian. Come to think of it they couldn't have been...............................

[SLEETY]

A further observation. I've noticed that the negativity towards the METO longer range outputs increases the further said outputs deviate from the desired outcome. I suspect if the forecast for the beginning of December included a sudden pattern change to a probable Arctic blast and possible white out conditions the murmerings would have been more along the lines of, "we must remember they are professionals, are privy to vast amounts of information we aren't, so no reason to think this won't come to pass".

well i think most on here wouldnt think that .I ve always taken any forecast after 9  days ahead as just an educated guess .we seen how cold weather before even just being modelled 3-4 days ahead can go wrong at the last  minute ,nevermind a forecast for weeks ahead lol but of course most people on here want cold snowy winters,because its so rare in uk

[Seasonal Trim]

Could someone be a dear and link me to the Model output thread for Nov/Dec 2010. Can't seem to find it in the archives.

[Summer Sun]

I've had a browse through google and whilst I can find some threads from 2010 the ones from that time can't be accessed any more

 

This was covering November the 20th - https://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=findpost&pid=1888374

 

If you want to browse through here is the link - https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=netweather+model+forum+2010+site:forum.netweather.tv&newwindow=1&hl=en&biw=1920&bih=916&site=webhp&ei=uUNCVurNOoOv-AGBtJsI&start=0&sa=N

[Seasonal Trim]

I've had a browse through google and whilst I can find some threads from 2010 the ones from that time can't be accessed any more

 

This was covering November the 20th - https://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=forums&section=findpost&pid=1888374

 

If you want to browse through here is the link - https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=netweather+model+forum+2010+site:forum.netweather.tv&newwindow=1&hl=en&biw=1920&bih=916&site=webhp&ei=uUNCVurNOoOv-AGBtJsI&start=0&sa=N

Cheers SS

 

 

Edited November 10, 2015 by Nizzer

[Seasonal Trim]

It doesn't seem to exist any more........oh well

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The change cometh

 

 

 

 

Still about a week to go but here is my landing point I spoke of late Oct and went on through early Nov.  I think there's room here to for some 'improved' pM air to infiltrate as we head into last third of Nov.  I mentioned in model thread too that I'm giving early UK severe weather warning for period 20-24 Nov, with a 'watch' period before that as Scotland likely to be on warnings for weekend.  No Not a deep freeze although wintry for some remains, but gales and heavy precip.   If this remains I think that GFS deep FI has done a reasonable job, when I started to illustrate potential set up when it came into range.

 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 10, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest]

Could someone be a dear and link me to the Model output thread for Nov/Dec 2010. Can't seem to find it in the archives.

Hi I managed to find this,  http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs;sess=

[snowblizzard]

Reading Ian F's posts on the model thread, it looks like any hope of cold/snow into UK is over even before winter officially begins - devastated!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Reading Ian F's posts on the model thread, it looks like any hope of cold/snow into UK is over even before winter officially begins - devastated!

 

I honestly doubt he'd claim to be able to predict the entirety of the winter from this far out with much confidence.

[snowblizzard]

I honestly doubt he'd claim to be able to predict the entirety of the winter from this far out with much confidence.

True, but it just seems all signals/pointers at the moment seem to be predicting persistent S/SW flow and mild!

I was wrongly under the impression that El Nino events strengthen the chances of cold into UK!

Edited November 10, 2015 by snowblizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Reading Ian F's posts on the model thread, it looks like any hope of cold/snow into UK is over even before winter officially begins - devastated!

 

Don't be, there's plenty of hope ....and time

 

BFTP 

[Seasonal Trim]

Hi I managed to find this,  http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs;sess=

Thanks GLB. Some great charts in there from the end of November to the beginning of December 2010.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Nizzer