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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Il take winter 2012/13 again this year please, 49cm of accumulating snow in total all from frontal events and a northerly toppler :)

We must have had about 80cm in total for 2012/2013 - but that's just my amateur measuring. Was very snow regardless.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

We must have had about 80cm in total for 2012/2013 - but that's just my amateur measuring. Was very snow regardless.

 

We missed out on the March 13 event being too far east, was hard to see just 10 miles west of York with huge drifts but cant complain, anything close that this winter and I'l be more than happy, last 2 winters I've had 0cm and 7cm :(

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Guys, while this area is somewhat more laid back than the main model thread, can we at least keep posts model-related please? There are threads in the general weather area for more general weather chat!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Well the 18z continues with Uncle Barty high pressure in much the same place with a flow from the S/SW, just some slight variations on the theme. There are hints of the heights becoming flatter with more of an Atlantic influence but not until towards the end of the run. 

 

post-9615-0-10142300-1446073879_thumb.jp :p

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Guys, while this area is somewhat more laid back than the main model thread, can we at least keep posts model-related please? There are threads in the general weather area for more general weather chat!

Fine. 2012/2013 was a very snowy winter - I  hope similar charts appear soon! I am so sick of this dreary rubbish.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

To all those hardy souls who hold the fort here in times of dubious weather interest.  :hi:

At least it will be mild.

 

Actually I am quite happy with the way things have panned out thus far this Autumn.

The cold and snow, if they come, can wait until last 3rd of Dec for me. 8)

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Welcome to NW, Andrew...But I wouldn't get too drawn to anything Metcheck puts out; I spent 20+ years in the Sneck, and, in all that time, to the best of my knowledge, Metcheck never once made an accurate winter LRF...Having said that, I'm not sure anyone-else has, either! :D

 

Thank you for your reply - maybe others should take note on how to reply without being condescending!  The tone of some other comments were very offputting for a new poster........

 

I am all too well aware of Metcheck's limitations:  I have watched them, along with other sites, for so long it is hard to remember a time before! So I am under no illusions. BUT.... Once before, I noted a similar change of patten like this. At the time no one else did among the sites that I watched.  That was in October 2009.  The change of pattern then was colder than this, but still it is worth noting.  Of course it could disappear tomorrow, but I prefer to look for positive signs, and hope, rather than prematurely wring my hands! Time enough for that when the reality is upon us.

 

I posted this - and I should have made this clear - in response to the prevailing tone of gloom in this thread.  Maybe, just maybe, Metcheck might have it right again.  I frmly stand by my view that everything is still to play for!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

  • So can we glean further confidence from the sustained model runs of such a a set up with massive continental/south Scandi block and south quadrant flow for up to first third/mid Nov? [see post several pages back]  They seem determined and I am of relatively high confidence that this is coming off.  Devil in the detail but overall set up looks good.   As regards to doom and gloom on the model thread, yes it can be frustrating  but set ups like these do take time to shift and in the current longterm pattern we are in of the jet being far more meridional such set ups of 'ruts' are more likely.  I have made my own notes suggesting that Nov will be of 2 halves and I suggest quite different second half of the month....particularly last third.  So onwards and upwards as we deepen into autumn and head towards winter

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Isle of Wight

What is interesting this season is the north east tracking of the lows which are currently delivering rain and mild conditions. Where are the SW lows which usually bash the shores ere down south. Looking back at models for 2009 at the same period there seems to be similarity and the north east track delivered floods! Is there going to be a dramatic change during the 2nd Half of November? I hope so and from my limited knowledge the building blocks appear to be in place for the long game, But being the UK it will be Finley poised. For any Snow to stick down here the temperatures need to consistently fall and remain below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

The GFS 06z provides some of the mildest charts yet! For both Sunday and Monday, it has temperatures very widely reaching 19C all across the south (actually if you look very close on Sunday's chart, there is a darker shading of orange in the south-east, where it is predicting 20C!) We could very much be putting the November record under heavy threat!

 

attachicon.gifviewimage.pbx.png attachicon.gifSun.png attachicon.gifMon.png

 

:D

Those are the max temps at 18.00 which is over an hour after sunset! So surely 20c+ could be achieved around 14.00 to 16.00, unless a pulse of higher 850s is due to arrive early evening.

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

So,it's going to be mild in early Nov,big deal. What's the alternative,sub zero temps with freezing rain and the cornish glacier heading down the A30!!! It's still autumn,lets have the warmth now,i say,cold synoptics at this time of year are just a prick tease anyway. 

Why waste a north-east gale with a channel low now when we can actually benefit from one, later in the season.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Boring weather to come. Worrying signs of the euro high which are even are even more stubborn than Bartletts to shift. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

current weather is just a borefest

bring on the severe gales then the heavy snow

For ones first post i like your style :D

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

current weather is just a borefest

bring on the severe gales then the heavy snow

 

will be better after the weekend, drying out, as nobody likes rain, certainly tomorrow dismal day

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Those were the daays

خبرة عشرات السنين ÙÙŠ تحليل الخرائط يدويا والتي هي ركيزة من أهم ركائز التنبؤات تحية للخبراء/يحيى الكندي وسي٠المحروقي

post-12275-0-06214800-1446158195_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

it's a deep mystery to me but there suddenly seems to be an overwhelming interest in charts deep into F1. I wonder why?

 

Its that time of year where people start having to clutch things and dig deep for the good stuff. Accept the inevitable! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

You'd need the Hubble telescope to find cold on the charts I'm looking at.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Well, on a slightly more cheerful note, I've noticed over the past 30 years, that periods of long standing high pressure dominance, seem to followed by cold spells. Especially periods of anti-cyclonic gloom.

 

So, let's hope this sticks around until December, and then it can beggar off northeast and give us the weather we deserve:-)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

No, I think around 15th Nov our weather will be back to normal, zonal, low after low, gales, rain, snow for scottish mountains only, GFS 6Z likely how it will develop

 

make the most of this warm dry weather, we will pay for it, mid nov to mid dec, wettest period of all time

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

Well, on a slightly more cheerful note, I've noticed over the past 30 years, that periods of long standing high pressure dominance, seem to followed by cold spells. Especially periods of anti-cyclonic gloom.

 

So, let's hope this sticks around until December, and then it can beggar off northeast and give us the weather we deserve:-)

Very true,mother nature has a habit of balancing things out. Totally sick of this boring weather,need a change!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Another glorious sunny Autumn morning dawns. Dry as a bone here. Trapped under centre of Euro High for another 10 days at least. No snow on the horizon. Its going to be a late start to our winter sports season. All I can do is chop fire wood and wait and make more tea... looking at these latest model charts depresses me. Time to turn off and talk to the wife for a change !

 C

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

i agree carinthian although nov 09 and nov 97 both mild complete opposite though when winter set in...

 

1997

post-9143-0-04974200-1446374933_thumb.gi

 

2009

post-9143-0-04006000-1446374949_thumb.gi

 

I think if we see a decline in solar output in the coming month or two then feb march could be wintry.

 

as it stands I feel nov dec and jan could have some very exceptional high temps very 1997/98 which I hated to be honest in fact 08/09 09/10 11/12 been ok here in the south but been rubbish since but 97/98 was by far the worse winter I was ill from flu none stop through autumn and winter.

 

so ive got a twenty foot straw I'm clutching but don't hold hope for wintry start to the season.

but do feel feb march might throw some suprises.

 

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