Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Have you ever posted a chart not in the depths of FI?

 

and not from ensemble 16

[Dancerwithwings]

Have you ever posted a chart not in the depths of FI?

You wait.... The CFS charts will be showing it's self soon...........sod it! have this  

 

Edited October 14, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[joggs]

You wait.... The CFS charts will be showing it's self soon...........sod it! have this

The pattern still needs to shift a couple of hundred miles further south,then I'll be reasonably happy😂 Edited October 14, 2015 by joggs

[Dancerwithwings]

The pattern still needs to shift a couple of hundred miles further south,then I'll be reasonably happy

 

Along as i see the jet steam doing that for most of the Winter I'll be Very Reasonably Happy

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

good to see it remaining mainly settled, even in to start of holiday week, but i expect we'll have to pay for this dry spell, during Dec with low after low

[mushymanrob]

Not at all...

This is uncle Barty in all his glory let us never have a winter like that again!

Winter killer - the chart above is nothing of the sort just transitory and not very extensive

image.jpg

 

a thing of BEAUTY... i hope thats the mean chart for february!

[IanR]

a thing of BEAUTY... i hope thats the mean chart for february!

indeed ,one can hope

[Liam J]

Not at all...

This is uncle Barty in all his glory let us never have a winter like that again!

Winter killer - the chart above is nothing of the sort just transitory and not very extensive

image.jpg

Not liking the look of these charts Daniel.... 

 

[Mokidugway]

Watch the high sink to the south west ,uncle Bartlett ??

[Costa Del Fal]

I think it will be November before any meaningful rain reaches here. Very good chance high pressure may just form again after the next cell in the next week. Interesting how high pressure is renewing so easily right now. I do think we are entering a drier phase again and could last some time. I reckon El Niño has a good day in this.

[bobbydog]

Watch the high sink to the south west ,uncle Bartlett ??

shhh! you could be assassinated!!

[cheese]

Not liking the look of these charts Daniel.... 

 

gfs1.pnggfs2.png

It's funny - I know people who hate cold, but would much rather spend a winter in Canada than the UK, because at least they get snow to lighten the mood - and a good deal more in the way of sunshine. There is nothing redeeming about a mild winter in the UK - it's just dreadfully depressing, with a good chance of rain but nothing else. An average winter is usually bad too - and even cold months are pathetic.

 

The only time I ever want milder than average weather in winter is if it's February 1998 2.0 with temps in the high teens and sunshine - none of this mild, drizzly gunk we have now - and if it's a choice of a very wet, cloudy but mild February 2011 or a very cold, dry and sunny December 2010, the choice is obvious.

 

Speaking of February 1998, Leeds had an average high of 11.6C! Truly remarkable - would be interesting to see it again.

 

That being said, if this winter does turn out milder than normal, I won't care much. I thought a winter like 2013/2014 would drive me nuts but in reality I just wasn't bothered.

Edited October 17, 2015 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

That chart may be good, but this is about as good as a winter pattern gets:

 

Rcfsr_1_1998021300.png Rcfsr_2_1998021300.png

 

I would much prefer this positioning of the high, to the one we have right now, that's for sure.

 

that would be greedy! lol... love those charts!

[Milhouse]

that would be greedy! lol... love those charts!

 

And the recent milder Winters have also brought above average sunshine round here. Please no easterlies bringing a stream of cloud and drizzle like recently.

[Daniel*]

a thing of BEAUTY... i hope thats the mean chart for february!

I'll show you the door...

[Daniel*]

That chart may be good, but this is about as good as a winter pattern gets:

 

Rcfsr_1_1998021300.png Rcfsr_2_1998021300.png

 

I would much prefer this positioning of the high, to the one we have right now, that's for sure.

How dare you call that a winter pattern!

[Mark Parsons]

I continue to read the mod discussion and still fail to realise why so many dissect the charts when the meto  usually have it right!!  

[Liam J]

Well the 00z GFS shows a very short lived unsettled period next week affecting northern UK,  a depression passing east near Iceland bringing some rain and increasing the breeze as the pressure gradient tightens and another depression passing close to N Scotland around midweek before the high pressure comes back which sticks around to near the end of the run! 

Edited October 18, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

And I bet the Wednesday storm gets shoved out of the way too !!.

[Scorcher]

It's funny - I know people who hate cold, but would much rather spend a winter in Canada than the UK, because at least they get snow to lighten the mood - and a good deal more in the way of sunshine. There is nothing redeeming about a mild winter in the UK - it's just dreadfully depressing, with a good chance of rain but nothing else. An average winter is usually bad too - and even cold months are pathetic.

 

The only time I ever want milder than average weather in winter is if it's February 1998 2.0 with temps in the high teens and sunshine - none of this mild, drizzly gunk we have now - and if it's a choice of a very wet, cloudy but mild February 2011 or a very cold, dry and sunny December 2010, the choice is obvious.

 

Speaking of February 1998, Leeds had an average high of 11.6C! Truly remarkable - would be interesting to see it again.

 

That being said, if this winter does turn out milder than normal, I won't care much. I thought a winter like 2013/2014 would drive me nuts but in reality I just wasn't bothered.

 

February 2008 was the perfect winter month for me, and one of the only memorable ones in my lifetime. A wonderful, sunny, mild by day and cold by night month. I find winter in general to be an incredibly dull season with a very low temperature range likely in most years.

[Liam J]

Knocker and his daffodils will like the 6z run.... 

 

 

 

But it turns colder later on... 

 

[Snowyowl9]

I`m in the wrong thread,this can continue dry lets see how long this record lasts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.html

Some people will be moaning about the lack of rain I expect.

Edited October 18, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[bigdog1]

Well I hope it stays dry most of this week in somerset as I have the builders doing my extension and they break into my existing roof I don't mind this grey and overcast but dry weather two more weeks will be fine the extension will be water tight

[cheese]

February 2008 was the perfect winter month for me, and one of the only memorable ones in my lifetime. A wonderful, sunny, mild by day and cold by night month. I find winter in general to be an incredibly dull season with a very low temperature range likely in most years.

February 2008 was very pleasant - very sunny. About as sunny as a typical March.

Edited October 18, 2015 by cheese

[Timmytour]

Feels to me like the generally dry October weather will soon be breaking down. I have a feeling next month will be an exceptionally wet one following the pattern of 1951 with this type of evolution a regular occurence