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Polar Maritime

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

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A new thread for the start of Autumn, Please use this thread for Model related Moans/Ramps/Banter or discussing the Models on a more lighter note. As always please stick to the Forum rules, And be respectful/polite and keep discussion on topic.


 


Please continue.


 


Many Thanks, PM


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So when is this awful cold, wet and cloudy spell going to end? Feels like late October here, constant grey skies and cold winds. My allotment veg won't ripen with this vileness. Any chances of a settled, warm sunny spell soon?

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current weather typifies everything i dislike about early autumn. cant get enthused about it at all, dewy lawns, damp chilly nights, garden quiet of birdsong and the flowers are nearly over, those that are left are tatty after the rain. its like dec 27th for a kid... coming down after a trip, stuck at an airport being delayed for ages after a great holiday.

awful time of the year..... roll on leaf fall and winter

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Its looking good next week for some late summery weather, chilly nights but feeling ok during day in sunshine.

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Its looking good next week for some late summery weather, chilly nights but feeling ok during day in sunshine.

 

tv forecasts are going for a lot of cloud... a dirty high... so nothing summery IF this occurs. on the plus side the nights wont be so chilly, and overcast should prevent much dew (grass cutting nightmare).

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tv forecasts are going for a lot of cloud... a dirty high... so nothing summery IF this occurs. on the plus side the nights wont be so chilly, and overcast should prevent much dew (grass cutting nightmare).

A dirty high? Reading the mod thread I'm under the impression summer is coming back next week, for a few days. So yet more cloud then? Oh yippee.

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I'll be happy when this northerly gets lost. Another sunny morning ruined by the typical stratocumulus infill by 10:00-11:00. Oh, how I hate Pm air masses!

 

I much prefer this weather to South Westerlies, much sunnier, drier and even though the air mass is cooler, it actually feels warmer out.

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tv forecasts are going for a lot of cloud... a dirty high... so nothing summery IF this occurs. on the plus side the nights wont be so chilly, and overcast should prevent much dew (grass cutting nightmare).

No surprise really, it will be from the middle of next week onwards when the high drifts east of the UK where we can import some drier and warmer air from the continent.

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A dirty high? Reading the mod thread I'm under the impression summer is coming back next week, for a few days. So yet more cloud then? Oh yippee.

 

yeah its likely to be cloudy in places, the tv graphics (bbc east mids) suggest cloud especially mon/tues. of course some places will fare better then others, south coast, south wales?

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yeah its likely to be cloudy in places, the tv graphics (bbc east mids) suggest cloud especially mon/tues. of course some places will fare better then others, south coast, south wales?

 

The joys of the British climate- so many things have to come together to get dry, warm weather. Even with a massive high over the top of us with ridiculously high pressure, we still get stuck under the cloud. However, I do feel it could be less cloudy than the BBC are suggesting. They have been over-cautious on many occasions this year in predicting a lot of cloud when it's ended up much clearer than expected.

 

Looking at the GFS surface temps it does certainly suggest a lot of cloud- you'd imagine we'd do a lot better than 17C here in midweek if there was sunshine.

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Anybody know if there will be an OPI thread this year i know its early but October will be on us before we know it

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The opposite is usually true for me. South westerlies are sunnier and warmer here.

 

Though to be fair, I do have a strange weather preference! I seem to be like the only one who likes warm, humid and muggy weather. :)

 

I know some places do very well out of South Westerlies,at times it can be warm and sunny here with them, but it can be often showery or even worse coastal drizzle (yuk)

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The joys of the British climate- so many things have to come together to get dry, warm weather. Even with a massive high over the top of us with ridiculously high pressure, we still get stuck under the cloud. However, I do feel it could be less cloudy than the BBC are suggesting. They have been over-cautious on many occasions this year in predicting a lot of cloud when it's ended up much clearer than expected.

 

Looking at the GFS surface temps it does certainly suggest a lot of cloud- you'd imagine we'd do a lot better than 17C here in midweek if there was sunshine.

 

indeed... who gets how much cloud is pretty difficult to get right, hopefully we will get more sun then the beeb suggest currently, its not set in stone that itll be cloudy, but its likely?

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Of course in an ideal world we get a Sc layer by day suppressing the temp which clears at night giving frosts so that the doom mongers that infiltrate the thread can then maximize their bias.

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The sun is alot weaker than mid summer now so any misty dull weather forming overnight will be much slower to clear, still should see it clear by afternoon though but summer heat in September here needs a very warm airmass which it looks like we'll be lacking this upcoming week.

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Cracking heights over Greenland on the GFS..

 

Rtavn2641.gif

 

Why yes, its only Mid sept! 3 months from now there will be a raging unshiftable PV there

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif

 

LOL summer finally arriving on the equinox according to the 12z, would be quite fitting actually, another Sept 2011 heatwave would be excellent, especially if it carries on all through October to, winter can hold off as long as possible please after that summer.

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GFS on a wobbly here, completely different to ECM, ECM must be miles closer, expect GFS to backtrack, underestimates low pressure in FI

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GFS on a wobbly here, completely different to ECM, ECM must be miles closer, expect GFS to backtrack, underestimates low pressure in FI

GEM goes gung ho on the low. GFS is actually similar but a day or 2 slower.

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GFS on a wobbly here, completely different to ECM, ECM must be miles closer, expect GFS to backtrack, underestimates low pressure in FI

 

I wouldn't be too quick to write off the GFS. The anomaly is not pushing the low until Sun/Mon but it's all a bit knife edgy.

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Rtavn3847.gif

 

Just look at that cold surface air already into Canada and encroaching in the Atlantic.. it does make one long for winter.

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One can't help feeling that given the nature of the set up next week it's a distinct possibility that parts of UK may well experience quite a severe storm

Chart weatherbell

 

Yes please.

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september is my least favoured month, both for weather and other things ,. the outlook highlights why, nothing but boring drab average uk weather that slips us slowly towards winter.

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