Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at the ECM ens we should get at least 6 days of high pressure dominating virtually UK wide

 

Reem961.gifReem1441.gifReem1921.gifReem2401.gif

 

Becoming pleasantly warm by day but remaining chilly overnight and early morning

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

 

Cheers Nouska. Yes I remember reading this when it was discussed in another thread along with, amongst others,

 
For sure it's a complicated and interesting subject but as to what is going on this year who knows.There are so many factors to consider not least El Nino and various other teleconnections and why the upper trough took up residence in the eastern Atlantic along with long term trends that may be attributed to global warming. All a bit above my pay grade I'm afraid.
 
Not only that we will be smacked in a minute for wandering off topic.

 

An interesting post ,and all connected to looking at the Models ,i,m sure we have many interesting days at model watching coming up , whats lurking out there interests us all but i suppose we must stick to what the Title says on the can ,so i will say todays data paints a picture of a good start to autumn [nothing nasty ] but what is lurking over the horizon what as Mother nature got in store gang , :gathering:  :drinks:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

To me it looks like HP domination for a bout another 6 days or so then a spell of weather moving in from the west and how HP reteats E/ESE.  Early signs are that usual suspects will see windiest and wettest as LP moves west to east across northern half but at times bringing fronts that will affect all but of a more transient nature the further south.

 

h850t850eu.png

However, what is interesting me is the signs of the models trying to rise pressure to our NE.  A scenario I'll be looking out for later in the month

 

BFTP

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

 

Cheers Nouska. Yes I remember reading this when it was discussed in another thread along with, amongst others,

 
For sure it's a complicated and interesting subject but as to what is going on this year who knows.There are so many factors to consider not least El Nino and various other teleconnections and why the upper trough took up residence in the eastern Atlantic along with long term trends that may be attributed to global warming. All a bit above my pay grade I'm afraid.
 
Not only that we will be smacked in a minute for wandering off topic.

 

 

My mistake for not being clear about the purpose in my post. It was to illustrate that the very stark contrast in SSts may well be firing up the jet more than usual and is possibly a strong candidate for the model failures we have seen this summer. In that respect, I felt it was apt for this thread as was the article about what drives the jet stream and what the models are having to resolve. :)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Briefly on the SST anomaly debate - I have taken a skeptical approach to this over the past few months, but the idea has been cropping up on an increasing number of weather sites, and the logic behind it seems sound... at least for the summer and early autumn months. I suspect that in winter, the interplay between the cold Arctic airmasses and warmer airmasses at the low to mid latitudes tends to override the SST influence to a large degree.

 

I've been looking back at the SST and zonal wind patterns of past summers in a bid to identify any relationships, and so far it appears that when there are large negative SST anomalies covering a wide area, the jet stream tends to favour a path that tracks either across or just south of that region. I need to analyse a lot more years to be sure though!

 

 

On to this morning's model output, and there's more of an appetite for bringing some warmer air into play across much of the UK for at least a time next week. ECM does this particularly well (see below two images showing 7 days ahead). Despite how far ahead in time this is, the recent run-to-run model consistency with the overall pattern lends high confidence to the developments during the middle part of next week. 

 

ecmt850.168.png

 

GFS supports this version of events well, though the warmer air isn't drawn across the UK quite as effectively. Temperatures are in the high teens widely, with the low 20's in parts of the south for example.

 

Further ahead in time, both ECM and GFS transfer high pressure to Scandinavia, in keeping with yesterday's runs. We also continue to see ECM favouring the progression of low pressure more to the SW of the UK with a chance of heading into Europe, but this looks less convincing this morning, with more of a risk that low pressure rides up the western flank of the Scandi high in a similar vein to recent GFS operational runs (see below image showing ECM 10 days ahead). 

ecmt850.240.png

 

 

With this in mind, I'm starting to see early signs that the second half of September could turn out to be very wet. This comes from the fact that the Atlantic westerlies typically pick up some strength as the month progresses, and that this ls likely to clash with that blocking high over Scandinavia in the near future. 

 

IF the blocking holds steady over Scandinavia, we could find ourselves facing situations like what the GFS 00z operational run produced for 17th September:

 

h850t850eu.png

What this shows is the warm sector of an Atlantic low - and its associated frontal systems - becoming slow moving over the UK, with secondary low pressure development then taking place along the cold front. This is a recipe for delivering prolonged heavy rainfall, and with such a blocked northern hemisphere pattern, we often have to endure a week or two of such events occurring every two or three days before the pattern relents.

 

It's too early to get ourselves concerned though - the blocking high could well manage to hold up the Atlantic storms to the west of the UK, or perhaps it will simply be shoved aside with a standard sequence of lows barreling through from west to east (still wet, but not to the extreme). There is, though, a tendency for the stalling point to be in the vicinity of the UK when Scandi Highs are at large, because after all, we're located at the major boundary between the maritime Atlantic environment and the continental Eurasian environment. Britain is like a massive pier sticking out into the ocean!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Briefly on the SST anomaly debate - I have taken a skeptical approach to this over the past few months, but the idea has been cropping up on an increasing number of weather sites, and the logic behind it seems sound... at least for the summer and early autumn months. I suspect that in winter, the interplay between the cold Arctic airmasses and warmer airmasses at the low to mid latitudes tends to override the SST influence to a large degree.

 

I've been looking back at the SST and zonal wind patterns of past summers in a bid to identify any relationships, and so far it appears that when there are large negative SST anomalies covering a wide area, the jet stream tends to favour a path that tracks either across or just south of that region. I need to analyse a lot more years to be sure though!

 

 

On to this morning's model output, and there's more of an appetite for bringing some warmer air into play across much of the UK for at least a time next week. ECM does this particularly well (see below two images showing 7 days ahead). Despite how far ahead in time this is, the recent run-to-run model consistency with the overall pattern lends high confidence to the developments during the middle part of next week. 

 

ecmt850.168.png

 

GFS supports this version of events well, though the warmer air isn't drawn across the UK quite as effectively. Temperatures are in the high teens widely, with the low 20's in parts of the south for example.

 

Further ahead in time, both ECM and GFS transfer high pressure to Scandinavia, in keeping with yesterday's runs. We also continue to see ECM favouring the progression of low pressure more to the SW of the UK with a chance of heading into Europe, but this looks less convincing this morning, with more of a risk that low pressure rides up the western flank of the Scandi high in a similar vein to recent GFS operational runs (see below image showing ECM 10 days ahead). 

ecmt850.240.png

 

 

With this in mind, I'm starting to see early signs that the second half of September could turn out to be very wet. This comes from the fact that the Atlantic westerlies typically pick up some strength as the month progresses, and that this ls likely to clash with that blocking high over Scandinavia in the near future. 

 

IF the blocking holds steady over Scandinavia, we could find ourselves facing situations like what the GFS 00z operational run produced for 17th September:

 

h850t850eu.png

What this shows is the warm sector of an Atlantic low - and its associated frontal systems - becoming slow moving over the UK, with secondary low pressure development then taking place along the cold front. This is a recipe for delivering prolonged heavy rainfall, and with such a blocked northern hemisphere pattern, we often have to endure a week or two of such events occurring every two or three days before the pattern relents.

 

It's too early to get ourselves concerned though - the blocking high could well manage to hold up the Atlantic storms to the west of the UK, or perhaps it will simply be shoved aside with a standard sequence of lows barreling through from west to east (still wet, but not to the extreme). There is, though, a tendency for the stalling point to be in the vicinity of the UK when Scandi Highs are at large, because after all, we're located at the major boundary between the maritime Atlantic environment and the continental Eurasian environment. Britain is like a massive pier sticking out into the ocean!

 

The Weather Network is going for a very unsettled October and November.

 

As we go into October and November, it is expected to become particularly unsettled thanks to a strengthening jet stream.

The jetstream usually strengthens going into October, bringing the UK its typical wet and windy autumnal weather.

However, the pattern of sea surface temperatures out in the North Atlantic at the moment favours a particularly strong jet stream to develop through the autumn.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/uk/news/articles/uk-weather/uk-autumn-weather-forecast-2015/56308/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we please stick to what the model outputs are showing, Not links to other website musings.

Thanks, PM.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Can we please stick to what the model outputs are showing, Not links to other website musings.

Thanks, PM.

It ties in with there first part of the post about SST's

Edited by Polar Maritime
Makes no difference.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows a gradual change to settled weather, the transition period is the coming weekend as the Atlantic high starts to ridge in with less showers and the northerly flow is cut off by the high building in as winds ease and back nwly, nights look chilly but by day it will be feeling more pleasant in the increasing sunny spells and then next week looks much better with the high centred over the uk for most of next week with cool misty starts followed by fine pleasantly warm days with good spells of sunshine and light winds, temps rising into the low 20's celsius later next week across the southern half of the uk. Later next week it turns a bit more unsettled across the far northwest and a front pushes a weakening band of rain SE but as it drifts down into the high pressure it fizzles out. Later in low res the north Atlantic fires up bringing more unsettled weather across the north of the UK with a lot of fine weather further south...a very pleasant spell is on the way soon. :)

post-4783-0-75630000-1441198834_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-73253400-1441198844_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-86578200-1441198854_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-82680100-1441198865_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-10186600-1441198876_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-20963400-1441198887_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-69670400-1441198895_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-73549200-1441198904_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-75479100-1441198915_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-20884200-1441198924_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-67857200-1441198935_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-85734200-1441198945_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

As earlier posts have shown it will take until the end of the week to be rid of this cool northerly and for the Atlantic high to move in.

The interest then lies in it's progress eastwards as it heads towards Scandinavia and E.Europe.

The 8-10 day overnight Op charts favour the block setting up there with wind flow trending south westerly by then.

post-2026-0-69190300-1441207982_thumb.gi

 

so quite a few dry days look likely from the weekend with some decent weather then it's a case of seeing how effective the block is in delaying any inroad from the Atlantic weather systems connected to the Icelandic upper low.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO continues to show the high moving over the UK as we move through the weekend and into next week

 

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

 

As I've said for a few days the days will be pleasantly warm in any sunshine but chilly over night and early mornings with a risk of isolated rural frosts mainly in the north

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean makes very pleasant viewing as far as next week is concerned, becoming anticyclonic and gradually warmer with the south of the UK then holding on to the fine and warm weather for longest but it turns a good deal more unsettled across the north of the UK and towards mid month the unsettled conditions spread further south but next week looks great for all parts of the UK, not often we can say that.

post-4783-0-78443900-1441221210_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-71281400-1441221218_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-15619200-1441221226_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-94967100-1441221234_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-48944100-1441221244_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-21513200-1441221252_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-23521300-1441221262_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening, A chilly outlook, not like folk expect for September in recent years...An early quiet spell early next week for most with some frosts, The Atlantic looks like kicking in later next week..... :closedeyes:

post-6830-0-01889200-1441224230_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-32310500-1441224324_thumb.pn

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

The above to my mind is by no means nailed on (or at least not for so soon as suggested in those images ANYWEATHER has posted). Indeed by the usual rule, nothing is yet nailed on for FI which by its very nature is FI. 

 

For now, I'd say : approach September outlooks with more caution -- there's plenty of possibilities in SOME of current FI op output for this month, and even in some of the anomoly output, to retain its traditional quietness for longer.

 

Is there not a risk of predicting full-on Autumn to come in too early?

Edited by William of Walworth
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The above to my mind is by no means nailed on (or at least not for so soon as suggested in those images ANYWEATHER has posted). Indeed by the usual rule, nothing is yet nailed on for FI which by its very nature is FI. 

 

For now, I'd say : approach September outlooks with more caution -- there's plenty of possibilities in SOME of current FI op output for this month, and even in some of the anomoly output, to retain its traditional quietness for longer.

 

Is there not a risk of predicting full-on Autumn to come in too early?

Oh. Autumn has come to early....!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

It's not a chilly outlook, once the northerly is cut off by the weekend the days become pleasantly warm with plenty of sunshine, nothing about that in your post and most of next week is fine..so here are the anticyclonic charts from the Ecm 12z that you didn't post!

It is  a chilly outlook .....

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No resolution with tonight's anomalies with the GEFS weakening the ridge to the NE thus allowing more influence from the NW trough and more unsettled weather. This has all the hallmarks of an emerging familiar pattern of a westerly airflow bringing alternating warm/cold air influence although it has to be said that the GEFS in particular is  looking at more of a trough dominated scenario bringing depressions into the UK

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

post-12275-0-40429600-1441227759_thumb.p

post-12275-0-69879000-1441227765_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It should perhaps be noted that the GEFS upgrade at 18z isn't as bullish with the trough at day ten but does weaken the HP to the NE and brings the trough more into play in the ext period. This scenario would bring cyclonic conditions to all of the UK. Last nights ext ecm not quite so keen on this but moves partially in this direction so in reality the outlook has yet to be resolved.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-89573000-1441262036_thumb.p

post-12275-0-70164800-1441262046_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Maybe connected. Don't ask but a suggestion. A Rossby Wave primer :)https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDEQFjABahUKEwjmmvSRo9rHAhVJfRoKHRrXCW4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhomework.uoregon.edu%2Fpub%2Fclass%2Fatm%2Frossbyprimer.pdf&usg=AFQjCNE9NYJNp2IH73VlHg17Q2Hd5eBBzQ&sig2=bf5dLnwJD9LCdC_NgQiHXw&cad=rja

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago

Nice signal in the GEFS for a planetary scale Rossby Wave train to set up over the N. Hemisphere mid-September

11 retweets 13 favorites
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows the cool northerly cut off by saturday as high pressure builds in from the west with winds easing and backing nwly with less showers and more in the way of sunshine with temps by day soon recovering, mid teens celsius in the north and into the upper teens c in the south but nights look chilly, especially in the north. Looking ahead to next week, it's high pressure domination with cool misty starts followed by fine pleasantly warm days with long sunny periods and light winds, it becomes warmer through the second half of next week, especially in the south of the UK with temps into the low 20's celsius. Later next week it becomes more unsettled in the far northwest and a weakening front drifts southeast but fizzles out completely as it hits the high pressure with the south staying warm and sunny with temps as high as 24c 75f towards the end of next week. Later in the run it becomes much more unsettled with bouts of rain and strong winds but next week is looking very pleasant across most of the BI. :)

post-4783-0-22155800-1441264534_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-27308900-1441264545_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-35930500-1441264554_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-89184900-1441264563_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-65272900-1441264576_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-77535800-1441264585_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-02234200-1441264598_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-14526300-1441264606_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-40751000-1441264616_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-96114300-1441264623_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-55678600-1441264631_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-88204700-1441264638_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-99857700-1441264646_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-45126700-1441264660_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-58338600-1441264668_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-17252000-1441264677_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-22417000-1441264685_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-77279800-1441264692_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO shows the high moving east for next week cutting off the northerly flow

 

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

 

Pleasantly warm by day where skies are clear but chilly overnight

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 3RD 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of rain returns to at least the NW later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow situated well South over Spain and North over Iceland. The Northern arm links to the Southern arm via the North Sea over the weekend while staying well to the NW of the UK for the start of next week. Through the second week the trend is for the flow to sink South over or to the South of the UK with time resuming distturbed cyclonic weather patterns over the British Isles.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a few more days of this cool Northerly flow before the HIgh pressure to the West of Ireland finally makes landfall across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week with less cool and bright days though nights will remain cool and misty. Through the second half of the run the High slips slowly away East and South but still maintains some influence for many until the final days of the run when Atlantic Low pressure bring a batch of rain and strong winds East over the UK.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational in Week 1 with a lot of dry, fine and gradually less cool weather by day affecting all areas from the weekend. Through the second week the High is shown to edge East into Northern Europe and becomes a blocking feature with low pressure to the West and SW unable to make much inroads into the UK and affecting just extreme Western regions. Things do become a little more changeable at the end of the period as weakening troughs stagger across the UK from the West.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show quite a mixed bag with the bias slightly in favour af an Atlantic influence most likely in 14 days with Westerly winds bringing the risk of times especially in the North. Having said that there are quite a few members who show influence of High pressure to the East of the UK playing some role in keeping things rather drier and warmer.

 


 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving gently east across the UK later in the weekend and the start of next week. A period of sunny skies and light and less cool breezes looks likely for all areas up to the middle of next week at least and while nights will still be cool and misty days could become rather warm in the sunshine.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in too over the weekend. It also shows a cold front wavering Southward early in the weekend with some rain for a time. As the High moves in to start next week we could be chasing rather large amounts of cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over the UK for a while.

 


 

GEM GEM today shows a somewhat different picture as we move deeper into next week. The High moves in across the UK as with the other outputs but then declines it away SE through next week to bring Low pressure down into the NW by midweek and all other areas by next weekend with rain at times in blustery Westerly winds.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme in as much as High pressure is shown to move across the UK late in the weekend with less cool and fine weather for all as a result. Then as this pulls away East next week something of a ridge is maintained across many parts from the East. However a weakening trough is shown to stagger across the UK towards midweek with a little rain in places.

 


 

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. The High is then shown to migrate to the NE which opens the door to atlantic troughs to make some progress into the Uk from the West later next week. By the end of the run we look back in a familiar pattern of High to the East and SE and Low to the Northwest with rain at times a risk for all but chiefly across the North and West. 

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows that the High centre transfers to the East by Day 10 and with the Azores High in position a weak trough is at risk of affecting the UK again by the end of next week.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their theme of moving High pressure across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter the waters muddy with variable evolutions towards slightly less settled weather indicated.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM tieing with UKMO at 96.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.6 pts followed by ECM at 86.0 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.4 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.9 pts to 35.0 pts from GFS.

 


 


 


 


 

MY THOUGHTS The models are rock solid this morning in bringing High pressure East across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week, displacing the cool Northerly breezes that have afflicted us this week with something warmer and dry with sunny spells but with chilly nights under clear Autumn skies. It's the 'thereafter' which is less clear but there does seem to be some coming together that the High looks likely to edge away east of the UK by the middle of next week. It's the speed of the decline of pressure that is unclear with some output maintaining largely High pressure close to the East, NE or SE and holding rain bearing Atlantic fronts away. GEM though shows a much more stark dip into unsettled and Autumnal weather for all by the end of next week and most other output that looks out to that point indicate something of a trough edging across the UK at some point with at least a little rain. My own train of though think that ECM might have the best handle on things this morning as in my opinion I think High pressure will move away to the NE or East and allow Atlantic fronts into more NW areas while the South and East stay largely dry and fine and relatively warmer. I notice this morning that there is an ex tropical storm in the Atlantic mix in about a weeks time and the positioning of this will have to be watched as while not directly affecting the UK the unpredictability of it's movements in the Western Atlantic could have knock on effects on synoptics for our little part of the World come the time. Nevertheless, nothing too bad on the horizon this morning and in fact some very pleasant early Autumn weather looks likely for many areas for several days as the transit of the High across the UK occurs.

 

Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 4th 2015

Edited by Gibby
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z shows high pressure dominating next week with fine and dry increasingly warm weather with plenty of sunshine and light winds but with chilly nights under clear skies with mist and fog patches forming. Later next week the high slowly drifts away NE but holds its ground long enough to bring a very decent week across the south and east of the UK, gradually becoming unsettled across the far northwest late next week and more widely by the end of the run, especially in the n/w.

post-4783-0-16098600-1441270002_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-80378800-1441270008_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-25164300-1441270015_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-73849800-1441270021_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-73570000-1441270027_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-59067000-1441270035_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-58333000-1441270042_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-55312000-1441270049_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This mornings anomalies pretty much in agreement at day ten with HP Scandinavia and a weak trough Greenland although the ecm does orientate this closer to the UK. This makes the surface analysis difficult to resolve so an eye needs to be kept on the ops output for detail. In the ext period the trough comes more into play so the weather would then become more unsettled.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

post-12275-0-13658800-1441271402_thumb.p

post-12275-0-91211700-1441271407_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...