Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->

[Singularity]

Still we see ECM a little deeper than GFS, with just under 980 mb as of 1pm Wednesday compared to around 982 mb.

 

GFS has adjusted west with the track a bit though, which raises the risk of some strong wind gusts affecting the southeast. Just how strong seems to depend on the extent to which the low develops a secondary centre on its NE side, as this shifts the strongest winds into the North Sea on the GFS 12z operational run. In fact GFS has been fairly persistent with that outcome, while ECM has been equally persistent in making little of the secondary feature, keeping the strongest winds far west enough to affect Southeast England. I can still see the potential for a few 60 mph gusts, though for the most part the peak is now looking more likely to be nearer 50 mph.

 

 

The low then slowly but steadily clears off to our NE to leave us with a very well timed ridge of high pressure for the weekend. The airmass looks warm enough to allow for day temps to reach the high teens widely, perhaps low 20's in the south. Chilly by night though - but having said that, frost isn't being indicated at this time. The Sunday chart from GFS is a fine one indeed:

 

 

Then it looks like head scratching time, as there's expected to be a broad trough over NW Europe, and any venture of the Atlantic jet stream toward that region is likely to result in a low developing and influencing the UK to some extent or other. Currently we have GFS liking the idea, but ECM's not keen, instead allowing high pressure to ridge across from the Azores - albeit weakly, with the risk of shallow disturbances bringing some cloud with a chance of rain in places.

 

 

There is a caveat to add regarding developments beyond the weekend, though - it all assumes that 93L doesn't kick off, when actually it still could despite a poor show today, or so the NHC thinks:

 

"A low pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has produced little shower activity today

due to dry air nearby. However, upper-level winds are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and this system is still
expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent"

 

So it could be that the models have to make some abrupt changes in the near future if the NHC are on the money.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the ridge of high pressure is still there for the weekend, Forget model output after that!

[damianslaw]

Quite an interesting topsy turvy spell of weather ahead, very changeable in the main, with the longwave trough digging south markedly and enveloping the country over the coming days, lots of rain and showers for many, driest conditions unusually probably reserved for the far north/central Scotland regions. A cool feel for many. Models suggesting a ridge development in time for the weekend, meaning hopefully a pleasant dry sunny one, chilly nights mind.

 

Next week, the atlantic trough looks poised to attack once again, from the NW aided by the southerly tracking jet - its been the default pattern since May and if it continues, could set up a lively spell of weather as we begin to feel the effects of marked temperature contrasts between the cool atlantic and warmer continent, already signs of this today in the SW.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure coming in just in time for the weekend temps in the mid to high teens maybe low 20's for some southern parts but pleasantly warm anywhere in any sunshine

 

 

Into next week we're likely to see the jet stream move further north bringing more of a NW SE split

[Singularity]

 

This is the first Euro4 run extending far enough ahead in time to show us what it makes of the convective potential associated with the deep low arriving from the southwest (there's predicted to be a lot of relatively warm, moisture-rich air within the heart of the storm). While most models have been developing what look like banded features, this model seems to be organising the convection into multi-cellular systems. By that I mean clusters of convective cells which may or may not be thunderstorms.

 

Some suggestion, then, that the initial push of wet weather could be more hit and miss than the likes of GFS have been suggesting... but on the other hand, Euro4 does have a habit of getting carried away with the organisation of convection in this manner.

 

I'll be watching this model's output closely tomorrow, as from what I've seen it usually gets somewhere close to the right organisation mode (chains of storms, multi-cellular systems, or banded features?), despite tending to overdo the precipitation rates.

[knocker]

Yesterday's 1800z T574 continues the theme recently indicated by the other anomalies of a pattern change in the ext period. This entails the slow removal of the HP block to the NE and trough to the west with height rises in the Iceland/Greenland area that slowly move east and the trough relegated to the western Atlantic. Obviously if this does materialise at this range the detail vis UK weather are impossible but the indications would be a fairly a quiet period of quite pleasant weather with temps around average or even slightly above.

 

Incidentally it's having no truck in developing 93L

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited September 15, 2015 by knocker

[Tim M]

Could someone please point me to the thread to talk about MO and other forecasts accuracy please? Love following the discussion but can't believe how wrong the MO is for my area, Mansfield, today. 10% chance of rain as it pours it down and will do for some time looking at the radar. Mansfield is not in Lincolnshire.  

[Polar Maritime]

Could someone please point me to the thread to talk about MO and other forecasts accuracy please?

Here you go Tim. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/page-221#entry3258719

Edited September 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Tim M]

Many thanks PM

[Polar Maritime]

Nice to 'see' some chilly Arctic -5/-6 850's touching the North out in the run..

Edited September 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

UKMO this morning shows a decent weekend coming up with high pressure replacing low pressure

 

 

Into next week and it does look like a NW SE split will form as I mentioned last night

 

 

ECM though looks better with the high staying across more of the UK

 

[Singularity]

Euro4 continues to have much heavier rain affecting some parts than others on a regional or even local scale. So we see a wide range of possible totals, from trace amounts to 52 mm (that 170 mm is from the rain taking place up there in NE England today...a pretty extreme projection!).

 

Generally speaking the impacts of the storm are mitigated by the fact that it only just clips the southeast, with the rougher weather taking place over the near continent. Just need to watch out for any last minute adjustments, but really it's looking like a bit of a lucky escape, though gusts to around 40 mph could still bring a few branches down.

 

 

93L in the tropics is being sneaky this morning - not much convection but signs of consolidation nonetheless. So still a possible player in the N. Atlantic pattern down the line.

 

95L is not far from 93L and putting on a much better show despite being close to the equator where it can be hard to gain much spin. The expected track is more to the west though, so any affects on the N. Atlantic won't be for some 10 days or more.

[Gibby]

Running very late today so only have time to give you a link to my website for my daily report. You can find it here:-

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY

THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST

POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON

Tuesday 15th September

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION.  A complex Low pressure area will move away from NE England through today but followed by a new complex Low pressure to the South of the UK tomorrow with troughs moving NW over England and Wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times though perhaps drier for a time especially in the South early next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for the next few days before it ridges North around the UK at the weekend in association with a ridge crossing East over the UK. The flow then is shown to blow NW to SE over the UK next week before breaking up and becoming less clear on positioning through Week 2 though generally further North than currently.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled coming few days as complex Low pressure areas move across England and away to the NE late in the week. This then allows a NW flow behind the Lows to be followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East at the weekend. Then next week Low pressure slips SE across the UK with a slow build of pressure to the West and then NW of the UK later in week 2 to gradually spread more benign and drier Autumnal conditions across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL  The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning shows quite similar sequences to events over the coming week as the operational run with the current wet and windy weather clearing at the weekend to a more NW flow with a little rain in the North and East though in Week 2 this run is much more anticyclonic based across all areas as a High pressure cell is shown to build across the UK and away to the East late in the period leaving a breakdown just entering the SW at day 15.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are again all over the place with various scenarios very different shown for the UK in 14 days time. While 35% most favour a slight bias towards High pressure lying across the UK the other 65% show different options of more unsettled conditions across the UK under Low pressure in one guise or another.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather through the rest of the week as it moves NE from Southern England and away to the NE by the weekend bringing rain or showers at times with strong winds too in the SE. A ridge is shown to cross East over the UK at the weekend giving 24-48hrs of fine weather before anew trough is shown to move in from the West late Sunday and into Monday.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving North-east into the South of the UK tomorrow and then continue on a NE'ly track with a complex array of troughs bringing two or three days more yet of rain and showers to all before a weak ridge of High pressure crosses the UK from the West at the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM today shows very unsettled and windy weather for the rest of this week with rain and wind at times before an improvement is shown for the weekend as a ridge of High pressure crosses East over the UK. In the days that follow and into next week pressure falls again over the UK with a depression shown to become slow moving across the UK returning unsettled weather with rain at times for all areas through most of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows wet and windy conditions at times too throughout the remainder of the week too as rain then showers around complex Low pressure moving NE from Southern England and Scandinavia between now and the weekend. Then after a ridge of High pressure at the weekend brings drier and brighter weather a westerly flow bringing a North/South split in the weather looks likely next week with rain at times and drier conditions towards the South and East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is rather different to the rest of the output as once this weeks well agreed upon sequence of events from all models ends ECM goes off on it's own course of building High pressure across the UK from Sunday and then being split SW and NE through next week leaving the UK under a tenuous ridge for most of next week. So a lot of dry and bright weather next week but with some troughs to the SE and NW could become entangled within the slack pressure gradient across the UK delivering a lot of cloud and a little rain at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night still shows enough influence from Low pressure to the NW of the UK to bring at least some rain in the SW flow across the UK with the best weather towards the SE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally unchanged from yesterday in the general message of wet and windy weather this week followed by improvements at the weekend, but for how long is still not well agreed upon.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM

The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO  at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.

 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

 MY THOUGHTS   The main talking point of the output this morning for model watchers is where we go after this weeks very unsettled weather has cleared away at the weekend. In the here and now we still have three days of potentially wet and very windy weather to come though the earlier in the week fears of disruption to high winds has receded somewhat as the Low tomorrow looks like taking a more Easterly track to the South of the UK. Nevertheless with some warm tropical air in this feature heavy rain remains a likely problem for southern and Eastern Britain before several days of a sunshine and shower mix occurs through Thursday and Friday. Then the well forecasted ridge at the weekend still looks likely to deliver an acceptable weekend for many before a trough knocks on the door of Northern and Western Britain by the end of the weekend. It's from that point on that the models diverge between whether High pressure becomes more dominant such as ECM illustrates or a more changeable and Low pressure based theme develops again early next week, shown by UKMO, GFS, NAVGEM and GEM in particular. Which is right would seem fairly straightforward given that only ECM and GFS long term offers much support for High pressure based weather across the UK but I feel it is too early to call still. As I said yesterday until tomorrow's feature is cleared up and out of the way to the NE at the weekend I feel the path of where we move next week weather-wise is yet to be determined so as ever I feel more runs are needed.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

In selecting the best Chart of the Day I have opted for an FI chart at 336hrs from GFS who shows a large High near to the NW of the UK with fine weather for all away from the chilly North breeze that would affect the East coast.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY  00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.gif

For the worst chart I have also gone for GFS which at only T+36hrs has a good chance of verifying delivering the worst weather of the coming few weeks with potentially heavy rain and potential gales across England and Wales tomorrow.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 16th 2015 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Edited September 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Quickly pasted over and amended date from website.

[knocker]

The ecm ext anomalies are in agreement with the T574 to some extent in moving the Scandinavian block east and dissipating the east Atlantic trough but perhaps not so bullish with the Iceland/Greenland height rises. Even so still going for a general rise of pressure in the east Atlantic which could produce some reasonable weather for the UK

[Tim M]

As i've said in the other thread you posted this on, 10% chance of rain DOES NOT mean it won't rain. 

Agreed ... but 10% chance of showers does not, surely, mean 4 hours of persistant, at times heavy, rain.

And an East Midlands text forecast of showers for Lincolnshire only should not mean persistent rain for Mansfield?

 

Why single out Lincs for rain only for instance?

[ANYWEATHER]

The uninspiring September continues , although the ridge for the weekend is certainly welcome ,make the most of it....

[Summer Sun]

A settled weekend is still on the cards from UKMO

 

 

Then turning less settled into next week though I still think the best weather will be in the SE whilst not totally its here where we're likely to see the longest spells of dry weather

 

 

Like this morning its ECM which offers the best chance for the high holding on

[Singularity]

It looks like next week will be largely defined by how strong the jet stream is as the week gets underway, as a large Atlantic trough extends toward the UK.

 

Essentially, the stronger the jet, the more it will drive low pressure development from this trough extension. GFS' 12z operational run manages to create a well defined system which stalls out over the UK with a lot of diurnal convection thanks to cool air aloft.

 

The majority vote, though, is for the jet to be too weak to achieve much in the vicinity of the UK - we see some more unstable conditions drift across with a day or two of slow moving showers, after which it most likely starts to settle down again.

 

 

For what it's worth, I've kept an eye on 93L and it seems that although development is still expected, it has taken long enough that it's path is now looking to be toward somewhere well southwest of the Azores Isles, making it much less of a player in the North Atlantic weather patterns out to at least a week ahead.

[Summer Sun]

Remaining settled on Sunday maybe some mist or fog to start but once it clears we'll have some good spells of sunshine though the far north west may be come cloudier with some rain as the day progresses

 

 

The rain and cloud then spreads across most of the country during Monday though some parts of the south could remain dry as the rain becomes more patchy

 

 

Tuesday could be quite a cloudy day for all with some rain around though some eastern and south eastern parts could remain dry or not see much rain

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows we are on track for a very pleasant weekend with a strong ridge of high pressure over the uk bringing a good deal of sunshine and light winds with temps into the mid to upper 60's F,  rain eventually moves into the far w/nw on sunday and during next monday, a band of rain slowly spreads east but for many eastern and southeastern parts of england it stays fine and warm. Next tues/wed indicate sunshine and showers before the azores high ridges NE later next week with many areas becoming dry with sunny spells although the southeast still has a risk of showers. Temperatures next week stay well up to average by day but where skies clear at night, it becomes chilly with a risk of ground frosts, its really the north of the uk where that risk applies on this run. There is one final sting in the tail on this run with a low forming over europe spreading NW across the uk bringing a spell of heavy rain but then high pressure takes complete control with a settled and pleasantly warm late september / early october.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 16TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex Low pressure area will move from Biscay to SE England and away over the North Sea tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely over the North.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for the next few days before it ridges North around the UK at the weekend in association with a ridge crossing East over the UK. The flow then is shown to blow NW to SE over the UK next week before positioning and flow thereafter becomes hard to define.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled coming few days as complex Low pressure areas move across England and away to the NE late in the week. This then allows a NW flow behind the Lows to be followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East at the weekend. Then next week Low pressure slips SE across the UK with a period of unsettled weather once more. towards the end of the run pressure being High over Europe extends a strong ridge across the UK from the East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning shows quite dry and settled weather becoming established across parts of the UK from the start of next week. In fact the weekend too will be dry for many before a weakening band of rain crosses East late on Sunday and Monday. Pressure then builds strongly from the South with a North/South split in the weather later next week with the best conditions across the South which extends to all areas later as an intense High pressure lies across the UK over the second half of the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have turned High pressure based across much of the UK in 14 days time with 70% showing High pressure biased conditions over 30% which show something more Low pressure based.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure at the weekend moving away East early next week as a broad trough is shown to return more unsettled weather with some rain to all areas early next week

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving away NE over the coming days taking it's showery weather with it to give a dry weekend for many under a strong ridge. This edges away East by the end of the 120hr period as rain bearing fronts approach from the West.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM  GEM today shows a High pressure ridge developing at the weekend as a ridge pushes across from the West. As this moves away East troughs will move in from the West with some rain for many for a time before a North/South split slowly develops later next week as High pressure lies not far to the SW while the North stays under Westerly winds and occasional rain.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the improvements at the weekend being shunted away east early next week as  a weakening trough crosses east with some rain in places. this then looks like setting up a North/South divide in conditions for the end of next week with the best conditions over the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning is not as pretty as some of the other output in the longer term and while it shows the ridge at the weekend bringing fine and dry conditions for many for a time cloud and rain on troughs moving in from the West early next week slides SE and keeps a cool feed of air across the South and East with further showers while the North becomes better for a time before towards the end of the run shows Atlantic Westerlies returning to all areas with rain at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night indicates to me that there is a good chance of a North/South split in the weather with the best weather in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally showing signs of leaning towards a fair amount of High pressure based weather across the UK from the middle of next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO  at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS Things look like improving across the UK next week as more output shows High pressure based conditions developing across the UK next week rather than Low. Nevertheless there is still some stubborn resistance about bringing universal support for this theory, none more so than the ECM operational run which generally shows changeable conditions throughout next week with rain at times. On the contrary the GFS Operational is a peach this morning as intense High pressure lying across the UK later in the run illustrates fine and settled Autumn conditions for all. However, before all this happens we still have to see the back of the current complexities which are still giving forecasters a headache as to how much rain, wind and to what extent all this occurs within the next 24 hours. It looks strongly to me as if many areas look like escaping unscathed from the feature moving NE over the SE late today. Yes there will be some heavy and thundery downpours in the SE corner but the area looks like restricted much further to the East and SE rather than elsewhere with the whole lot swept away to the NE quite quickly tonight. It all illustrates how fragile and complex the weather patterns are currently which could complicate and affect the predictions that currently exist for next week so caution should be urged on events next week until the weekend.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=300&mode=0&carte=0

 

The best chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run at 300hrs which shows an intense High pressure near Scotland with fine and settled weather for all across the UK.

 

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY  00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

For the worst chart I have also gone for the here and now using the midnight today chart from GFS showing deep and complex Low pressure to the South and over the UK leading to an unsettled 24-36hrs across the UK. It also indicates a strong improvement likely over the current weather over the coming two weeks as nothing in the output thereafter is as bad as this chart over the two week period.

 

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 17th 2015

Edited September 16, 2015 by Gibby

[knocker]

Quite an interesting evolution by the T574 anomalies at 1800 last night.

 

Next Weds sees the return of the trough but it actually digs a fair wat south and becomes a cut off low over the UK. This eventually leads to height rises over Greenland and ridging to the west of us. Could produce a reasonable spell of weather for the end of September and quite warm temps. (relatively speaking of course) Albeit the middle of next week might be best forgotten.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited September 16, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z control turns into an absolute peach of a run with high pressure gradually building in over the uk from later next week and intensifying to become a very powerful anticyclone which would go on to last well into early october. In the meantime, the next few days stay unsettled before the complex low clears away to the NE with a strong ridge of high pressure for the weekend.  The first half of next week looks like becoming more unsettled again according to most of the 00z output  but then we could see a marked change to more generally settled conditions...I hope

Edited September 16, 2015 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run really grabbed my attention, it shows quite a dramatic plunge into deep autumnal conditions through low res with the jet-stream powering up and blasting  across the uk with bouts of wet and windy weather alternating with brighter, colder and showery spells, even the first snow risk across the highest ground of scotland with the jet tilting nw/se. In the meantime, we are well on course for an increasingly fine and warm weekend with long sunny spells and light winds but with a few chilly nights with a risk of mist/fog patches. Into next week, the ridge is replaced by rather more unsettled weather spilling in off the atlantic and most of next week looks at least changeable, especially further north but then the azores high starts to build in across the south of the uk with fine and pleasantly warm conditions returning but not reaching northern uk. Then we see a big swing to more unsettled weather, the south being last to see it.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Karl, The 6z really shows the Atlantic firing up as we head towards Months end into Autumn proper. With a cool/unsettled Pm flow from the N/W it would feel raw in the wind, With a Wintry mix possible for the Scottish Mountains. There's some pretty cold uppers sat over Greenland, Which gets dragged into the mix on-route across the Atlantic.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Polar Maritime