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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well it hasn't felt very 'plumey' down here!!

I suppose not! The wind must be pretty nasty in Cornwall? I've been out all day tidying the garden and am a bit sunburnt.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 11 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 12 Apr 2016

ISSUED 18:14 UTC Sun 10 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

... MIDLANDS / WALES ...

Complex setup on Monday, with advection of higher WBPT airmass continuing to spread westwards across England and Wales to the north of a slow-moving NW-SE oriented frontal boundary. This, in response to diurnal heating across the Midlands/Wales, may destabilise sufficiently to develop some surface-based embedded convection on the northern fringe of this frontal zone, but a lot of uncertainty surrounds this scenario, not least with amount of cloud cover perhaps inhibiting sufficient heating.

... SE ENGLAND / E ANGLIA / E ENGLAND ...

Destabilisation is likely to occur across NE France / BeNeLux, with convection becoming increasingly elevated as it travels NW-wards during the late afternoon and evening hours, in theory towards SE England / E Anglia - although it is noted several models keep most activity largely offshore over the North Sea. Hence we remain with a LOW threshold for now, with any elevated convection then running northwards up eastern coastal counties through Monday night.

... S ENGLAND ...

A round of afternoon/evening showers/storms are also possible across N France, which may then advect across the English Channel towards southern coastal counties - however, current expectations are this activity will weaken significantly as it interacts with colder SSTs.

... SW ENGLAND / S IRELAND ...

In the post-frontal environment, low-level wind convergence in a slack surface pattern, combined with some element of orographic forcing, is likely to aid in the development of a few isolated heavy showers. Instability is marginal and profiles quite dry, but given 40-50kts DLS this may be enough to organise convection sufficiently to produce some sporadic lightning. Slow storm motion suggests a risk of temporary local surface water issues, with perhaps also some small hail.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-11

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Fully fledged thunderstorm now with lightning and torrential rain.

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6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Fully fledged thunderstorm now with lightning and torrential rain.

Any chance you can film it and post it on here? I'm storm starved!

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Just now, Hector the Convector said:

Any chance you can film it and post it on here? I'm storm starved!

Sorry afraid not.

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5 minutes ago, dragon falls said:

Flash of lightning clap of thunder to the south of us big squall line over Cornwall way 

Please stop lying to us.

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There does appear to be quite a bit of lightning over Cornwall at the moment.

Lightning 10th April.JPG

This is to to do with a squall line between Falmouth and Newquay and running through Truro.

Edited by J10

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19 minutes ago, dragon falls said:

Not lying about 750 cat ran in from the thunder 

I highly doubt you're getting thunder and lightning in Cardiff. There are no strikes showing on lightning maps.

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I contacted a friend who lives in Cardiff because i was curious to whether things got going storm wise once the rain had past through Bristol which is quite common and for me very annoying, Anyhow he told me there has been no thunder or lightning in Cardiff just rain. A quick glance at lightning detectors would also suggest this.

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Wow - just had a look on the radar!!  Good luck down south-west! Nice storm coming out of France, but I expect it will die out over the channel.

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Round 2 of rain about to hit with a bit of pink showing on Rain Alarm Pro maybe a rumble or two thrown in. Looks good over Cornwall some happy storm loving folk there i think.

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Had a loud, surprisingly active storm over my area between 7:30 to around 8;10ish. Looked mostly like sheet-lightning, but looking at the radar it probably wasn't. 

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Feels weird looking at all that thundery activity to the south when it's gone down to 8C outside!

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Ahh to have been back in Falmouth today. Looks like it has been a fun evening there. However today's storm surge has caused problems especially a few in St Mawes. Thankfully damage does seem limited across the SW though. :)

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Not pointing fingers at anyone, and certainly not saying anyone is lying, but not all sferics show on the various lightning detectors. Many intra-cloud sferics aren't detected and usually produce visible lightning and audible thunder. 

I remember being in Manchester a few years ago when a small storm broke out with lightning every six or seven seconds, all intra-cloud, and not one sferic showing on any of the detectors...

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There's a torrential downpour to my west now! I'm watching and waiting to see if any lightning comes from it! Although, it seems to be dying now!

Edited by William Grimsley

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Some beautiful flashes now over the hills here in Limousin...

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6 minutes ago, Convective said:

Not pointing fingers at anyone, and certainly not saying anyone is lying, but not all sferics show on the various lightning detectors. Many intra-cloud sferics aren't detected and usually produce visible lightning and audible thunder. 

I remember being in Manchester a few years ago when a small storm broke out with lightning every six or seven seconds, all intra-cloud, and not one sferic showing on any of the detectors...

Plus I've seen visible lightning before now from cells way to the N around Lancaster!

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