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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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41 minutes ago, Hector the Convector said:

Looked like it was snowing when i looked on your cam earlier! Luckily i managed to dodge the showers today during rough runner (15k obstacle run). Hoping for some storm imports from the south next week..

Yeah, that was most likely the hail shower in the video in my previous post! However, we did have a few showers of snow before it! I have to say, I love watching the stream and not having to get up and look out the window! LOL!

Edited by William Grimsley

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Time-lapse from Irlam. Convection started off well then weaken before kicking off again mid afternoon as trough approaches then a dramatic wind change followed by a lovely sunset

 

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It looks like a good week ahead for thunderstorms over here in France. It's all starting from this evening - I'll keep you posted on developments!

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Again, the recent runs continue to predict some very thundery setups this week, if you live on the south coast, I'd think you'd be very unlucky not to see any lightning...

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Lightning has been detected SE of the Scilly Isles as well as over the Brittany peninsula. This could be an interesting day.

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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Lightning has been detected SE of the Scilly Isles as well as over the Brittany peninsula. This could be an interesting day.

It could be, but give it time. I've still got crystal clear skies here in Limousin and I'm out gardening in my t-shirt (and trousers!!!). I'll let you know if and when and action starts...

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some elevated convection initiating over northern France now and into the English Channel.... indeed, an elevated storm or two are starting to fire in northern France............one to watch

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From the pictures of the storms over Niort, running N, look surface based at the moment

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21 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 10 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 11 Apr 2016

ISSUED 16:32 UTC Sat 09 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

General evolution sees a large upper low becoming anchored to the southwest of Britain, with 2 slow-moving frontal zones being the main focus for some convection - one across northern Scotland, and another over southern Ireland/southwest Britain. 

... SW IRELAND ...

At the beginning of the forecast period, a triple-point frontal system will run NW-wards over S/SW Ireland during Sunday morning. Backed surface flow coupled with low LCLs, and strong forcing and DLS, suggests a risk of a tornado, especially if any rigorous convection can occur close to or to the rear of the triple point in an environment with notably steep lapse rates. There would only be a short window of potential on Sunday morning, before the main cold front begins to bend back farther to the SW. This is also dependent on the exact position and timing of these frontal features, some models keeping the main area of interest offshore to the SW, and as such confidence is too low to issue a SVR threat area for now.

... N SCOTLAND ...

Shortwave trough rotating around main parent upper low will engage with occlusion across northern Scotland, perhaps allowing some convective elements to become embedded within. However, of more interest will be the post-frontal environment, with slack surface flow/convergence and some element of orographic forcing serving to develop a few scattered showers with a generally low risk (5-10%) of lightning.

... CS ENGLAND to S WALES ...

Backing flow ahead of frontal zone will advect higher WBPT airmass from western France, with an increasing signal for elements of elevated convection to develop within the frontal zone on Sunday evening/night. As is often the case with such events, there remains some uncertainty as to the true likelihood of lightning activity and for now we remain with just a LOW threshold. In either case, such elevated convection that may develop over the English Channel and advect towards IoW/Hampshire/Dorset will probably weaken as it heads NW-wards towards SE Wales.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

UPDATE 15:08 UTC No changes to overall expectations, have extended the LOW across remainder of SW Britain for potential elevated instability this evening/tonight

General evolution sees a large upper low becoming anchored to the southwest of Britain, with 2 slow-moving frontal zones being the main focus for some convection - one across northern Scotland, and another over southern Ireland/southwest Britain. 

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Just back from my cycle ride in glorious warmth (21c) and sunshine. Some great cumulus formations, and it looks like it is all starting off further west of me here in Limousin. I'd say about 2000 for some t-storminess here...

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Wow France is lit up!

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Some showers have developed down by the channel islands and i expect some more elevated showers to develop as the evening goes on and wouldnt be surprise if they produce, we will be live streaming if anything kicks off so stay tuned people! :D

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16 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Wow France is lit up!

It's heading my way for later on this evening/night! It's still 17c here in Limousin and the sky is beginning to look very menacing from the west...

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2 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Some showers have developed down by the channel islands and i expect some more elevated showers to develop as the evening goes on and wouldnt be surprise if they produce, we will be live streaming if anything kicks off so stay tuned people! :D

Met office mention of heavy rain but how thundry is up for discussion looks better out west 

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2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Met office mention of heavy rain but how thundry is up for discussion looks better out west 

Any showers that develop between now and mid level will be most likely the best time/chance for anything thundery, after midnight it will just be a general area of rain.West side of the main area of rain too will be most like thundery, just depends how far east any thunderyness is willing to get.

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Nice to see storms kicking off again :D S England might see a few flashes and rumbles tonight. Shame this isn't July during a hot spell...

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7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Nice to see storms kicking off again :D S England might see a few flashes and rumbles tonight. Shame this isn't July during a hot spell...

If this was May/June or July, my excitement will probably go over board!

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Hello everyone! Well, looks like the tip of Cornwall is about to get a nice thunderstorm, wish it was here hey! Anyway, looks like any potential this evening will be limited to Devon and Cornwall at this stage as most of the thunderstorms over France are surface based as this is evident by no lightning over the English Channel. I think I have a good chance of seeing something this evening and as always my live stream will be online possibly even through the night if any thunderstorms do want to show their face: https://video.nest.com/live/Atmiip

EDIT: Very black to my south now!

 

Edited by William Grimsley

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Yikes, very very dark sky to my west here now in Limousin.

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Thunder heard and some moderate rain from what looks like medium level instability.

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5 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

If this was May/June or July, my excitement will probably go over board!

Hehe yes I think the forum would be pretty busy! Does feel a bit 'plumey' today....warm sun, then clouding over with a strong SE wind....can this year break the curse of the last decade where anything interesting weather-wise avoids the UK?!

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Well it hasn't felt very 'plumey' down here!!

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