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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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Day 2 Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Apr 

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Apr 2016

ISSUED 21:08 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharp upper trough gradually clears eastern Britain during Tuesday early-mid afternoon. Meanwhile, sea breeze convergence likely to aid at least a risk of scattered showers just inland from the south coast, moving eastwards in the mean flow (i.e. potentially shower-training over similar areas). Given enough cold air aloft within upper trough and sufficiently steep lapse rates, there may be some sporadic lightning from any stronger cells, albeit considered a low probability.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-05

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Apr 

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Apr 2016

ISSUED 21:08 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharp upper trough gradually clears eastern Britain during Tuesday early-mid afternoon. Meanwhile, sea breeze convergence likely to aid at least a risk of scattered showers just inland from the south coast, moving eastwards in the mean flow (i.e. potentially shower-training over similar areas). Given enough cold air aloft within upper trough and sufficiently steep lapse rates, there may be some sporadic lightning from any stronger cells, albeit considered a low probability.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-05

Wednesday could be more interesting I admit

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I've posted these in the SE thread hey ho, I'm reasonably confident if it was a late summers day today could have kicked off not a drop of rain despite the ominous skies - another rather ominous fact this is post 5,000, I'm quite taken back by that value, seems like yesterday when I plucked the courage to sign up on a side note I had my natural fireworks on Saturday. :D

I've had a scan and Wednesday doesn't look too bad for some more widespread showery activity most likely to be muted IMO, even snow for northern hills. 

image.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*
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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Apr 2016

ISSUED 08:46 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 08:46 UTC Extended LOW farther westwards across S England, although main focus remains for Kent/E Sussex

Sharp upper trough gradually clears eastern Britain during Tuesday early-mid afternoon. Meanwhile, sea breeze convergence likely to aid at least a risk of scattered showers just inland from the south coast, moving eastwards in the mean flow (i.e. potentially shower-training over similar areas). Given enough cold air aloft within upper trough and sufficiently steep lapse rates, there may be some sporadic lightning from any stronger cells, albeit considered a low probability.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-05

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Close..

Screenshot_2016-04-05-14-34-51.png

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17 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

nice shots mp-r,i havn't seen any funnels or tornadoes,but did see one one in the far distance years ago when i was storm chasing around Cambridgeshire.

 

Thanks! I've only seen two that I recall, both from a distance and over the Severn Estuary. Never seen one up close like yesterday's.

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Looks like another low risk of low-end storm activity tomorrow and into Thurs in cool showery NW'erly post-cold front (occlusion) environment. Deep upper trough and cold mid-levels sinks SE over UK during the period- weak CAPE building with daytime heating. Hail looks a likely feature with showers/storms given cold air aloft.  Further north and west looking more favourable tomorrow, with the risk transferring SE along with the cold air at 500mb.  

Transitory ridge and warmer air aloft moving over Friday, before risk looks like returning for weekend where we see another upper trough and renewed push of cold air at 500mb move over the country.  

Edited by weather09
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21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Thanks! I've only seen two that I recall, both from a distance and over the Severn Estuary. Never seen one up close like yesterday's.

Nice! Did you report it to Toro? The only 2 I can really confirm is the one I saw briefly in Peterborough a number of years ago through houses I said to myself "was that what I think I saw?". Unfortunately when I got to a good spot to see it I could see the last of the horizontal spin and break up where it had died. Later it was confirmed. I did see another from near the hardwick roundabout near Kings Lynn on the same day on the way back to Norwich, it was a fair way in the distance but you could see it moving oddly so I knew it was definitely a funnel. I tried to drive round to it but it also had gone by the time I saw the cloud bases.

Even further I spotted an odd spin, like seeing the thermals moving through some normal cloud like if you moved sand around with your finger. It was like the atmosphere was ripe for spin ups, the first and only time I've ever felt that.

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Close..

Screenshot_2016-04-05-14-34-51.png

So unlucky! If only that setup had occured yesterday, then that would have been a good chase!

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A nice rainbow on my webcam if anyone's interested?!

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1 hour ago, Greenday said:

Nice! Did you report it to Toro? The only 2 I can really confirm is the one I saw briefly in Peterborough a number of years ago through houses I said to myself "was that what I think I saw?". Unfortunately when I got to a good spot to see it I could see the last of the horizontal spin and break up where it had died. Later it was confirmed. I did see another from near the hardwick roundabout near Kings Lynn on the same day on the way back to Norwich, it was a fair way in the distance but you could see it moving oddly so I knew it was definitely a funnel. I tried to drive round to it but it also had gone by the time I saw the cloud bases.

Even further I spotted an odd spin, like seeing the thermals moving through some normal cloud like if you moved sand around with your finger. It was like the atmosphere was ripe for spin ups, the first and only time I've ever felt that.

Thanks. I have just done so now. :)

They're devilishly difficult to witness so I consider myself very lucky to have seen one without even having to leave the house haha!

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3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Thanks. I have just done so now. :)

They're devilishly difficult to witness so I consider myself very lucky to have seen one without even having to leave the house haha!

Absolutely! Definitely lucky! Nice one though and thanks for sharing!

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 06 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 07 Apr 2016

ISSUED 21:09 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will clear eastwards on Wednesday morning, although the back-bent occlusion will tend to stall across northern Scotland. A sharpening upper trough will slide southeastwards, bringing a large swathe of deep instability south of this occlusion complex to many parts of the British Isles, although deepest instability unlikely to reach southern Britain until Wednesday night.

Cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating over land will generate numerous showers, some perhaps weakly-electrified, hence a broad LOW threat level issued. The most likely areas to see some (sporadic) lightning will being over Northern Ireland and SW Scotland during the latter half of the morning, expanding across northern England, north Wales and the north Midlands through the afternoon - areas farther south have a much lower risk of lightning. That said, shear is much stronger over areas farther south and this may be enough to compensate the overall weaker instability to produce a few incidences of lightning.

Some small hail is possible in any stronger cores, perhaps locally above 1.0cm in diameter over parts of Ireland where there is likely to be a better overlap of instability and shear.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-06

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Heavy, gusty hail shower passed through here recently.  Looks like the line of showers it's associated with currently moving across the country is from a secondary cold front. Shortwave disturbances likely further west in deep cold mid-level air currently pushing south and east. 

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Pretty intense but short lived shower of hail just passed through. Temp briefly dropped to 5.4c 

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Just had a brief hail shower here with gusty winds. Proper April showes day here! Pleasant enough when the sun makes a reappearance :)

Further sharp showers for many by the looks of it. Can't rule out a flicker here and there!

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Plenty of April showers rattling through today, some hail but mostly rain. Very gusty as well, getting towards 50mph around the showers. 

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Big lump of precipitation heading in from the NW worth keeping an eye on.....with the recent activity further west

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14 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Big lump of precipitation heading in from the NW worth keeping an eye on.....with the recent activity further west

It's looking black to my West (Shrewsbury direction)

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Wow, beautiful line of anvils off to the north from here in the city. You should be able to see them, Arnie.  Amazing.

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33 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Wow, beautiful line of anvils off to the north from here in the city. You should be able to see them, Arnie.  Amazing.

yep I have been running a timelapse for the the last hour or so.......slightly to the west of the anvils you`re on about (Shewsbury way)....but yes a wonderful site

clent club 015.jpg

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 07 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 08 Apr 2016

ISSUED 17:21 UTC Wed 06 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Generally quite a low risk of lightning across the British Isles / Ireland, with a sharpening upper trough clearing eastwards, its axis over the North Sea by the time of peak heating over land. Nonetheless, cold mid-levels combined with diurnal heating will generate some deep convection, particularly focussed along a zone of low-level wind convergence from eastern Scotland down through eastern England to East Anglia, where heavy showers are likely to be frequent, some perhaps deep enough to produce some sporadic lightning activity.

DLS is weak and CAPE rather meagre so any lightning activity is likely to be fairly sporadic/isolated. Given cold air aloft, some small hail is possible in any stronger cores.

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-07

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Yeah, we had two showers today both containing heavy rain and hail here!

Edited by William Grimsley

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just had a flash and rumble here ,  gusty winds, brief burst of heavy rain , all stopped now

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Just had some Thunder here only one but it was there.

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