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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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I'm surprised this thread is quiet this morning as expecting more activitiy , I assume most are now at work or has the risk changed I see the NW main page seems less encouraging showers turning locally heavy with a risk of hail and thunder or am I just up early and reading too much into it (probably)

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_040416.png

Issued 2016-04-04 08:36:27

Valid: 04/04/2016 0600 to 05/04/2016 0600

CONVECTIVE FORECAST - MONDAY 4TH APRIL 2016

Synopsis

Upper trough slides slowly east across the UK and the far west of Europe during Monday, with a slack cyclonIc flow across the UK. A shallow area of low pressure over SW UK will drift NE through the day, associated wrap-around occlusion will bring cloud and rain to Scotland and N. Ireland today, while much of England and Wales will have have an unstable airmass in suny spells, with thundery showers developing widely.

... ENGLAND and WALES ...

Cold pool of the upper trough will spread NE aloft today across England and Wales, producing increasingly steep lapse rates with surface heating in sunny spells. Showers are already across far SW England and parts of Wales but will develop more widely across England and Wales, while turning increasingly heavy with local thunder as surface heating increases in sunny spells. Showers/thunderstorms maybe accompanied by hail, gusty winds and intense rainfall that may lead to localised surface water flooding with hazardous driving conditions. Local breeze convergence may allow brief funnel clouds or even a brief weak tornado/waterspout to form with stronger updrafts.

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A lot of cloud around.. 

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

A lot of cloud around.. 

yep at the moment there is for me as well at the moment , going out in a minute so hoping for a dry morning

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Some action on its way up from the channel....looks like hitting sw coastal parts in the next few hours.

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2 minutes ago, Glenosnow said:

Some action on its way up from the channel....looks like hitting sw coastal parts in the next few hours.

yep see that on the radar even though it doesn't appear to be in any great hurry a blessing for those who avoid the showers forecast at convectiveweather.co.uk did put a focus on the SW and indicated some other areas may stay dry pot luck today I think

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To much cloud around for my liking. Not seen the sun since about 7.30 this morning.

Got a feeling it's going to be a little underwhelming for these parts. Further North & East might fair better.

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..just Steady, light rain here..

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11 minutes ago, SteveB said:

To much cloud around for my liking. Not seen the sun since about 7.30 this morning.

Got a feeling it's going to be a little underwhelming for these parts. Further North & East might fair better.

Risk doesn't subside until later on this evening- instability only really building through mid-late afternoon with max insolation, so wouldn't be too concerned atm. Usually on days like today convection really takes off around 5-6pm.  

Nice cumulus cloud bubbling up nicely already, though, around here.  

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To be honest, I'd much rather the Convective Showers come later, seems far too cloudy right, now and by mid-afternoon hopefully we can see some storms!

EDIT: I can see blue sky!

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Seems to be a few showers around already according to the radar

 

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The sun has just made an appearance here. Not sure for how long though.

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Showers beginning to develop now and look quite potent over Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Telford etc.

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It's not uncommon for days with stonking downpours/thunderstorms in this setup to start with morning clag that can sometimes outstay its welcome. When the sun gets to work this afternoon, a lot of the low cloud just burn off allowing for better convection and activity to peak around 5-8pm before dying off again. 

Must admit though, I don't remember a setup similar to this so early in the year so we may have to be that bit more patient with cloud burn off given the still-strengthening sun.

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Got a shower here with drizzle but its actually quite nice as there's lovely fine slow drops.

Hoping for some thunder today:)

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Spawning ground is the south by the looks of the radar with the action further north 

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Well I am hopeful for those further North from here. I can see Cumulus starting to tower and bubble up as it heads away Northwards. To my South, a boring lump of rain looks incoming, but perhaps something to watch as it heads North?

As a few others have said, some further showers possible later this afternoon as well. April showers in it's true form.

Edited by Chris K

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First sferics Shropshire/Welsh Borders area?

radar has suggested it should have rained here but it hasn't though. 

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Hello everyone! We've had quite a few heavy downpours here this morning but no thunder as of yet! I'm about to go out storm chasing with Evening thunder! We're thinking about heading NW towards Tiverton, Devon, so let's hope we catch something!

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Heavy hail shower underway 11.6c (falling)

Edited by Carl46Wrexham

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Just had reports from colleagues in Derby of a hail storm

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