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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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Here we go! Lightning around 5 miles way at present. Pitch black skies. Torential rain. 

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In the dark can just make out a long curved shelf cloud coming over. Lit with an occasional flash..

very windy now also.

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Hi Gordon, Speedway Slider here..... Looks like we're safe this evening, looks like it's slipping east of Leicester/Bedford areas, if they survive that far north.. Tomorrow's is another saucepan of skate!!

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That's quiet a storm over Folkstone/dover,anyone that way,you should be filming it.

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First plume of 2016 and it is NOT a Kent clipper or hogged by France/Belgium! 1-0 to the UK!

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Just now, Andy Bown said:

First plume of 2016 and it is NOT a Kent clipper or hogged by France/Belgium! 1-0 to the UK!

Except it didn't hit us! Better chance tomorrow hey!

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I can see the clouds lighting up from here...its really going for it, a sight I don't expect to see until late May/June at the earliest and even then I'd give it a thumbs up by those standards!

Edited by Harry

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Question:

Blitzortung...

Each square/raster has a number in it.. what do the numbers signify? See attached..

Cheers.. 

Screenshot_2016-04-03-20-45-25.png

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It's nice to watch all those orange and yellow dots appear,even though they are not hear lol;)

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2 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Question:

Blitzortung...

Each square/raster has a number in it.. what do the numbers signify? See attached..

Cheers.. 

Screenshot_2016-04-03-20-45-25.png

Rate of detected sferics/minute, perhaps?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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I thought that, from what I know, you can change the size of these squares, but surely, it can't be if a square has a number 34 in it, then that's the number of strikes detected in that square?? Can it? Sometimes the squares have huge numbers in them. I have seen squares with 200+ in them on occasions....?

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Just looking purely at GFS and EURO4 it looks at the moment as though there may be some convergence of SB activity tomorrow afternoon across parts of mid and N Midlands, perhaps as far N as Manchester.

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12 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Question:

Blitzortung...

Each square/raster has a number in it.. what do the numbers signify? See attached..

Cheers.. 

Screenshot_2016-04-03-20-45-25.png

I believe it is the number of strikes detected within that square area within that timeframe. (Eg white I think is in last 20 minutes?)

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Is it my imagination, or is the northern/western part of the system weakening on radar?  Sferics appear to have reduced as well.  I wonder whether it's moving into a slightly more stable airmass?

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3 minutes ago, Chris K said:

I believe it is the number of strikes detected within that square area within that timeframe. (Eg white I think is in last 20 minutes?)

So there is quite a lot of activity for this early in the season...

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The showers to my SSW are now starting to beef up a bit, still no sferics from them yet but time will tell!

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38 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's quiet a storm over Folkstone/dover,anyone that way,you should be filming it.

Unfortunately I couldn't film it, it was a cracker, still going to my north, can still see it flash, not sure if there's more coming up or not.

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Pretty impressive early season 'plume' this evening across SE, in all.  Not surprised to see storms having occurred across the region (as mentioned the increased risk a couple of days ago) but wasn't expecting it to be quite as active as it's been. Moisture didn't look particularly notable. All part of learning I guess. Some days we've seen conditions better than this evening, but storms struggle to get going. Not easy to predict just how significant a convective risk day will be.  

18z analysis shows mid-level shortwave impulse having provided ascent and destabilization of sufficiently moist air mass which advected over region late today, helped by falling 500mb heights and steepened mid-level lapse rates, and also likely supported by strong mid-upper jet in increasing storm longevity.  

20160403.png

Another round tomorrow, though different setup than this evening- with environment becoming unstable to surface heating under cold mid-levels.  Winds aloft falling light under upper low, so weak shear profile and therefore slow-moving disorganised storms order of the day.  Heating of landmass/light converging sfc winds forcing mechanisms. Looks decent enough. 

Shame I'm at work.  

 

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1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

The showers to my SSW are now starting to beef up a bit, still no sferics from them yet but time will tell!

to my eyes, they seem to be degrading if I'm honest...........there's little instability in the west english channel now, some moderate rain showers are likely in the next hour or two there, but I reckon it will subside as the night progresses.....surface based convection more likely tomorrow for the west country hopefully

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3 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Pretty impressive early season 'plume' this evening across SE, in all.  Not surprised to see storms having occurred across the region (as mentioned the increased risk a couple of days ago) but wasn't expecting it to be quite as active as it's been. Moisture didn't look particularly notable. All part of learning I guess. Some days we've seen conditions better than this evening, but storms struggle to get going. Not easy to predict just how significant a convective risk day will be.  

18z analysis shows mid-level shortwave impulse having provided ascent and destabilization of sufficiently moist air mass which advected over region late today, helped by falling 500mb heights and steepened mid-level lapse rates, and also likely supported by strong mid-upper jet in increasing storm longevity.  

20160403.png

Another round tomorrow, though different setup than this evening- with environment becoming unstable to surface heating under cold mid-levels.  Winds aloft falling light under upper low, so weak shear profile and therefore slow-moving disorganised storms order of the day.  Heating of landmass/light converging sfc winds forcing mechanisms. Looks decent enough. 

Shame I'm at work.  

 

Great analysis - thanks.  I suspected these cells were generated by an upper trough, but that FAX output appears to confirm it.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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I'm impressed - managed to see about 3 forks in the cloud as I passed Redhill on the M25 but then it all moved away. Shame it seems to be following the pattern that ruined many a would-be plume last year, however I'm off to California and Arizona in three weeks so that along with the early arrival of the UK storm season today does bode well for 2016!

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Some big flashes east / south east of me atm. No thunder heard.

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Impressive storm for april! 

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