Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Cloud 10]

Looking very lively towards the SW at the moment,especially for January.

 

 

Met-office have yellow warning out for rain for many parts of the south and midlands.

Warnings - Met Office

 

 

 

[Super_Uwe]

Haha! Well well, I personally haven't experienced a storm for the best part of two years (nothing whatsoever last year!).

Looks like it might be my lucky day today (we are in Kingsbridge in S Devon).

 

 

[Mapantz]

Not a massive amount of recent activity unfortunately..

[Biggin]

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Biggin

[Thunderbolt_]

Just seeing all of this lightning around is reminding me of the 25 January 2014, the day when a very vigorous winter squall line crossed the country:

 

 

[Chris K]

Well my search for snow has fallen on its backside for now...so hopefully a flicker of lightning will cheer me up

[Super_Uwe]

Several strikes recorded to NW of here apparently, too far away by the looks of it 

 

 

[Evening thunder]

Had 6 very heavy showers today (one at 6:15 woke me up with hail). Saw a flash from it too as it moved off.

Recently had another one that also gave a flash and a rumble as it moved away.

13.4mm of rain so far, could become the wettest day for several months by the looks of it.

[MP-R]

Well just had some absolutely torrential rain here, very un-Januaryesque, and wouldn't be out of place May-October. Have noticed some strikes appear across Somerset so maybe, just maybe, the biggest surprise here will be thunder rather than snow.

[William Grimsley]

Like Evening thunder has mentioned, had a few torrential downpours since my last post on this thread with one giving hail, a flash of lightning and a clap of thunder!

Edited January 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[richep]

Had 4 rumbles here about 30 - 45 minutes ago. Rain not particularly heavy . Thunder wasn't overhead.

[Chris K]

Heavy rain but looks like the thundery activity has died out as it reached here. A taster of the upcoming convective season

[Mokidugway]

Rain echoes look reminiscent of a summer MCS ,but sadly without the storms.

[weather09]

Looks like storms this morning off SW coast developed INVOF the triple point (point of occlusion), where greatest low-level lift of moisture would be, and beneath cool mid-levels. Situation at 12z and accompanying radar image:

  

Can easily identify shortwave ahead of occlusion in radar pic, with thunder being associated with this too over Dorset/Somerset.  Aloft, looks like convection would have benefited from slight increase in winds with height beneath left-exit jet (increasing bulk shear and supporting overall ascent), so marginal instability was able to be utilised.  This different from earlier on in the week when forcing wasn't too apparent, despite the environment from a instability standpoint seeming to be conducive to thunder. 

Sure there's a little more to it, but good cases to look at if one wants to learn why one day didn't produce while the other did despite the similarities in setup.  

[Stormyking]

The next 24-48 hours is definitly something to keep an eye on, Upper 850's of -1, surface temperature around 8-10 'c Dewpoints around 3-4'c  , personally I think the risk of Lightning is very high for anywhere along the South West, South and South East Coast, Cape and Lifted also at -2 and around 400-500 kg across the channel and the coasts Tomorrow especially.

Tomorrow Evening is interesting me a lot

Though I dont think there will be a lot of showers, but they will be very organised if any develop and it wont take much either, plus the air will be quite dry too so there could be some impressive skies too.

Last night we actually had some lightning just off the Coast off Ventnor and there was some very lively showers too.

 

 

[Mokidugway]

2 hours ago, weather09 said:

Looks like storms this morning off SW coast developed INVOF the triple point (point of occlusion), where greatest low-level lift of moisture would be, and beneath cool mid-levels. Situation at 12z and accompanying radar image:

  

Can easily identify shortwave ahead of occlusion in radar pic, with thunder being associated with this too over Dorset/Somerset.  Aloft, looks like convection would have benefited from slight increase in winds with height beneath left-exit jet (increasing bulk shear and supporting overall ascent), so marginal instability was able to be utilised.  This different from earlier on in the week when forcing wasn't too apparent, despite the environment from a instability standpoint seeming to be conducive to thunder. 

Sure there's a little more to it, but good cases to look at if one wants to learn why one day didn't produce while the other did despite the similarities in setup.  

Nice informed post 09 keep it up

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Next front pushing through the spine of the country spinning around the low 

[poseidon]

Just had one clap of loudish thunder (no lightning) as the front passed over. Not showing on lightning detectors though. Rather unexpected.

[Super_Uwe]

Nothing materialised here during the day, but my wife was awake in the night and said she saw two flashes and rumbles of thunder. Trust me to miss it lol!

Think this was possibly around midnight - 1am? Are there any sites with historical 24hr data at all? That would confirm exactly when.

[Supacell]

18 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Nothing materialised here during the day, but my wife was awake in the night and said she saw two flashes and rumbles of thunder. Trust me to miss it lol!

Think this was possibly around midnight - 1am? Are there any sites with historical 24hr data at all? That would confirm exactly when.

The lightning archive shows a strike at around 1am just off the coast near to Dartmouth. 

[MP-R]

Looks like some recent strikes in North Devon, hopefully something here later on.

[Noahjoe]

Some very convective cloudscapes down on the south coast, pushing in from the SW. Had a hail shower so far today but no thunder as of yet...feeling hopeful though

[tomp456]

Was woken in the middle of the night by a loud  clap of thunder. Nothing to report today apart from a few small hailstones. :-)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

South East :

 

Valid from 21:00 on Sunday until 09:00 on Monday
Bands of heavy showers will affect parts of southern Britain throughout Sunday and Sunday night, some places affected more than others. The main focus continues to be on the period later this evening, overnight and at first on Monday morning, before the heaviest showers clear the eastern edge of the warning area, into the North Sea. The warning has been updated to bring the start time slightly forward, and to extend the area west across much of Dorset, as well as further north across central parts of southern England. Whilst some areas will miss the heaviest rain, given the saturated ground, please be aware of the potential for surface water flooding causing localised disruption to travel.

Chief Forecaster's assessment
A fairly organised band of heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm, looks like feeding along the English Channel later on Sunday, and then increasingly into parts of southern England as the flow backs more southerly overnight and at first on Monday. 5-10 mm may fall within an hour and perhaps 20-30 mm through the period in a few spots. The focus has shifted a little westwards, and it's not impossible that a further update might be needed later on Sunday or overnight.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just took this looking east