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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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On 12/13/2015 at 8:12 AM, Chris W said:

Thought I'd drop in and share, at the risk of potentially riling you during the winter storm drought but you might still like to see this - 2 supercells in Canterbury yesterday after an entire spring of no storms.  At least one tornado and marble-sized hail that has ravaged my veggie garden!  Photos at the link below:

 

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/75057881/hail-gone-but-thunder-may-return-in-christchurch.html

 

Here's a panoramic I took of the second one approaching:

12363171_10101347205636513_6313117489815

Video of the tornado, wish I had seen it myself!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJTPcu09J9o

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Just had a loud crack of thunder, rain & hail mixed in. 

Edit - Quite an active cell with two more cracks of thunder close together. 

Latest strikes.

strikes.thumb.PNG.e74b77ac828ba4abca8270

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Heavy shower with a bright yellow flash followed quickly by load rumble here at work near Heathrow in west London, unexpected, but haven't been keeping tabs on those CAPE charts last few days.

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A couple of heavy downpours here as well, a few bits of small hail mixed in with one of them. I sometimes prefer the convective potential through the Winter months. 

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The ECM CAPE charts did show around 100 j/kg around here this morning, nothing of note but anything higher than 0 gives a risk I guess! 

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Just had a thunderstorm not far from here. Wasnt really expecting that! Something interesting for a change!

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Yes! We had it in Deiniolen - it was quite active for a while - a nice surprise! Here's a flash I caught towards Snowdon it was heading SE. 

IMG_0713.mov

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Gust of 78mph in magilligan NI during a thunderstorm a couple of hours ago

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While the forum is quiet in here, I thought I would post up some photos I got last year.. Yes I own these photos they are mine and featured on channel 4 storms last year. I haven't shared them yet as I forgot about them LOL

 

 

10448229_747983565248443_4742707926274332591_n.jpg

10491119_750150048365128_5984934865266924509_n.jpg

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What with all the ever present wind and rain there's a chance of some very heavy showers with local hail/thunder and gusty winds pushing through overnight, initially into western areas some continuing into the New Year's Eve period. Should have cleared through by the evening for many. Don't be surprised to hear a rumble or two of thunder. 

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5 hours ago, Generalelectrix said:

Not bad, nice funnelclouds (thumbs up) Wheredyou take them, Lukey?

 

Regards

 

Ralph

Cheers, taken in Surrey near Thorpe Park 

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Just had a big thunder-hail shower, with some thunder, torrential hail, and one big flash of lightning.

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Just had a torrential down pour with a massive flash of lightning and booming thunder, i jumped out of my skin! Was not expecting it at all!!

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Yes one or two quite potent showers passed through last night.Thought I heard thunder in the early hours,but it could have been the strength of the wind instead.

image.png

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very low risk

The following vort maximum will cross the British Isles during the noon. Although synoptic forcing will be limited as well, rather rich low-level moisture and convectively mixed maritime air masses will likely allow for thunderstorms. Strong low-level flow around 20 m/s at 850 hPa indicate a threat of severe wind gusts especially when lines of storms manage to form. Given limited forcing and that severe convective wind gusts are expected to occur only isolated, a level 1 is not issued. Convective activity is expected to weaken later in the period across the British Isles due to weaker moisture, but some thunder is well possible until the end of the period across the North Sea.

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Some lively convective weather to come across many parts this afternoon and evening, as an occluded front and collocated sharpening upper shortwave trough force squall line like convection bringing hail, thunder and strong convective wind gusts. Lightning wizard indicates convective gusts of up to 60 knts from the 00z GFS run. Lightning strikes across west Wales, SW approaches and southern Ireland atm. 

Have issued a storm forecast issued here: 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=28e26eb0a4cd6588ab609ccbd935a79c

 

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Interesting will fizzle away before it gets here more likely than not but would be nice to see some action.

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There is cold air aloft which will provide conditions for hail..

Some lightning associated with that trough.

Screenshot_2015-12-31-11-49-33.thumb.png

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The cloud from the trough is already moving in here which is surprising considering how far away it is.

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Yes... one or two places look like they could see nature's version of a New Year celebration this afternoon.

There's no one good time frame to look at here, as the NetWx model has small "pockets" of instability popping up over parts of the west over the course of this afternoon. There are also some pretty steep lapse rates too, as we bring a fairly potent Pm incursion in off the Atlantic and coupled with the deep wind shear, may help to aid thunderstorm development. These storms will most likely be rather weak, as they often tend to be in winter, but could be nice to see for some us :)

CAPE.thumb.png.7b75630ae070bbfc410b65652Lapse.thumb.png.9f4f884aaec3394af61b6985Shear.thumb.png.027310258669264da3ab148b

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It will be interesting to see whether that band of rain peps up further as the day wears on. A few sparks here and there by the looks of things! I miss this thread's activity in the quieter months, but these little surprises are nice :)

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I should clarify that it isn't a trough, its a front. For some reason I had yesterday's fax chart still up on my screen. :nonono:

If it holds its intensity, I suspect it'll be pretty wild underneath it.

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So a rare get together on here in the convective thread for the last day of 2015. Have a happy New Year everyone, my eyes will be on the sky until this evening when it will be on food and drink!!!

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It looks to me a bit like there is a secondary squall line developing just behind the main one? If that intensifies, then it could also bring a bit of thunder and lightning for some.

Untitled.thumb.png.c527887bf11db4df211c0

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