Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Rain123]

Big flash over Camberley at around 1515. No thunder heard. Apparently was not seen over ash vale though.

[Flash Elvis]

Looking at current rainfall radar think this might just be a Kent Clipper after this main band???

[snowdog]

Been raining since lunchtime here. 24mm total so far.Lots of surface water on the roads.

[dwalton]

Not looking likely for any one in the south now. Rain band is not moving far enough north and pivoting east. So it's a no go today :-(

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Alright, time for a situation update. The low pressure system is tracking quite a way south of what was expected, as a result of which the rain band with its embedded downpours has not made it as far north as was predicted for mid-afternoon today.

Some very heavy rain is advancing north while the band is tilted from southwest to northeast. Hence it has just advanced through London yet is still affecting a line from Reading to Weymouth.

Another area of very heavy rain is affecting areas from Brighton to Hastings and that should move due north over the coming few hours.

Behind the rain band comes the potential for some thunderstorms, very hit and miss in nature.

The most severe event of the day might, however, be unfolding in and around Weymouth, where the banded rain appears to have developed a wide region of heavy to very heavy rain that has started to show signs of rotation, suggesting a small scale low might be developing there.
This feature has halted progression of the rain band and appears to have played a part in realigning the band from a west-east orientation to a southwest-northeast orientation.
Long story short, with the band pivoting around that point, the heavy to very heavy rain may persist for many hours in that area, bringing a risk of localised flooding.

There also looks to be some sporadic downpours to the east of this region over the next few hours, perhaps as far as Southampton. Whether they will include lightning activity is unclear. Stay safe out there!

 

Courtesy of Weather Scientific 

[Dean E]

Definitely worth keeping an eye out in the red area over the next few hours!

 

 

[Nouska]

 

Alright, time for a situation update. The low pressure system is tracking quite a way south of what was expected, as a result of which the rain band with its embedded downpours has not made it as far north as was predicted for mid-afternoon today.

Some very heavy rain is advancing north while the band is tilted from southwest to northeast. Hence it has just advanced through London yet is still affecting a line from Reading to Weymouth.

Another area of very heavy rain is affecting areas from Brighton to Hastings and that should move due north over the coming few hours.

Behind the rain band comes the potential for some thunderstorms, very hit and miss in nature.

The most severe event of the day might, however, be unfolding in and around Weymouth, where the banded rain appears to have developed a wide region of heavy to very heavy rain that has started to show signs of rotation, suggesting a small scale low might be developing there.

This feature has halted progression of the rain band and appears to have played a part in realigning the band from a west-east orientation to a southwest-northeast orientation.

Long story short, with the band pivoting around that point, the heavy to very heavy rain may persist for many hours in that area, bringing a risk of localised flooding.

There also looks to be some sporadic downpours to the east of this region over the next few hours, perhaps as far as Southampton. Whether they will include lightning activity is unclear. Stay safe out there!

 

Courtesy of Weather Scientific 

 

 

That is the centre of the low that has been modelled for days - not some new, unexpected feature.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Real danger now is pulsing thunderfog - if anything convective happens at all that is

[Costa Del Fal]

Time to give up in the SE I reckon. Lovely warm sunshine here in Devon which was never predicted which just shows how Much further south and east this event had been. We should be having heavy rain by now!!!

Lovely beach weather now.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Supacell]

I was partly considering leaving work early to head down to the SE to storm chase, I am glad I didn't now. That would have been a very costly bustola! Still a chance something could happen but the risk is fading now I think.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just because we didn't have storms don't mean it ain't been wet.. I think a lot of people in the south east will back me up when I say "damn, that rain is heavy and lots of it"

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just a rainy day in England. Why the massive surprise?

[A.J]

Some discrete cells are firing in the SE, one with a pronounced hail core near Tonbridge

[Rain123]

Real danger now is pulsing thunderfog - if anything convective happens at all that is

Erm, what is thunderfog?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

You couldn't make it up even if you tired..

Check lightning maps people

I burst out laughing

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Erm, what is thunderfog?

We had it at the start of Summer. The murky misty fog that forms after wet days. We're sitting in a kind of unpredictable convective soup at the moment - what happened last time was discrete pulse-like storms started popping up just as it started to get dark, but because of the fog it was hard to see where they were despite the flashes being visible for many miles.

So, there you have it - thunderfog!

[legritter]

Rain now stopped here in north somerset ,total rain about 4mm ,so the weather beets us again , must admit i was expecting something a bit more meaty but we all know the score bring on the winter storms cheers .

[Costa Del Fal]

You couldn't make it up even if you tired..

Check lightning maps people

I burst out laughing

Lmao so the sferics begin off the east coast. So unlucky in this country.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Been really chucking it down for some time here now and appears to be stalling. Rates of 50+mm/hr falling right along the entire length of the river nene. April 1998 saw a very similar situation to this with a front with very heavy rain stalling in the exact same position which resulted in the worst flooding of the river in history. Would not like to ever see the likes of that again!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lmao so the sferics begin off the east coast. So unlucky in this country.

Yep lol, although something wicked is happening in the channel a long the lime of those showers

[Condor Vitesse]

WITH Flash Bangs Thunderfog and Surreys Lime showers it's been interesting so far!!!!

[Rain123]

Looks like some kind of squall line forming. I think it will miss here, as we are a bit to far west.

We had it at the start of Summer. The murky misty fog that forms after wet days. We're sitting in a kind of unpredictable convective soup at the moment - what happened last time was discrete pulse-like storms started popping up just as it started to get dark, but because of the fog it was hard to see where they were despite the flashes being visible for many miles.

So, there you have it - thunderfog!

Wow, cheers.

[IanR]

 poor forecasts again on thunderstorms,  hit and miss to get right,  but was it ever thus , at least Lincolnshire didnt hog any storms    

[Gordon Webb]

how long before Met Office / BBC bashing begins I Wonder ?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not only a bust for us, but for much of Northern France too.