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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Well technically it hasn't for our shores just yet and remains to be seen whether it's just tapping into higher CAPE projected over France and our meagre offerings will be realised too.

Mid level cloud steadily increasing here combined with a notable bounce in humidity in the breeze here (well, it feels so on my delicate skin lol )

Channel cell still producing so eyes and ears pointing south for those in the Portsmouth/Chichester area

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well technically it hasn't for our shores just yet and remains to be seen whether it's just tapping into higher CAPE projected over France and our meagre offerings will be realised too.

Mid level cloud steadily increasing here combined with a notable bounce in humidity in the breeze here (well, it feels so on my delicate skin lol )

Channel cell still producing so eyes and ears pointing south for those in the Portsmouth/Chichester area

Looks like the Channel has achieved its first kill of the season...but then it is only early April.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Unless I'm mistaken it developed over the channel. Furthermore any thunder there is in the coming hours is likely to be from (albeit limited) mid level instability so the Channel is not a huge issue.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
6 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Undulatus Asperatus earlier in Fordingbridge.

A touch of that here as well. It reminds me of Summer, except it's only 12°C

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2016

ISSUED 16:13 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across British Isles/France on Monday, while sharpening and extending down to Iberia. The associated cold mid-levels combined with diurnal heating will generate 300-400 Jkg-1 CAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing, particularly focussed along convergence zones (one such notable feature likely along the length of the southwest peninsula, this whole line drifting slowly eastwards with time). Hence some parts within the broad low-end SLGT may stay completely shower-free, while others may experience shower-training and multiple heavy downpours. 

 

Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells, and perhaps some local surface water issues given locally prolonged downpours.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Couple of new cells in the Channel/N France after the first died off.

Jay Wynne's recent forecast shows more intense precip compared with earlier forecasts too.

Loving the feature on blitzortung (guessing it's new) which shows (presumably) which stations are picking up which strikes - the more powerful strikes in theory being picked up by more stations whereas weaker strikes much more locally. Should give us an idea of how powerful the cells are in any given storm.

Recent strike near Eastbourne/Newhaven - any witnesses? Make that 3-4 strikes now very close to the coast.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
30 minutes ago, Harry said:

Recent strike near Eastbourne/Newhaven - any witnesses? Make that 3-4 strikes now very close to the coast.

Yes it is starting to look better through the Channel. I wouldn't be surprised if people around Newhaven aren't hearing thunder now. Rapid development around Portsmouth too, although no sferics here as yet.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

One sferic off the coast of brest which william will be happy about:D

propper popping off now in the channel,and that too heading toward Newhaven,anyone from that area?

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

The cells are moving quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

getting cloudier here and NO i don't lknow which type so I'll stick to cloudy as it covers a multitutde of clouds which is the limit of my ability

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Funny how this feels like some sort of weak practice run for later in the season and into Summer. :D Not expecting anything here but you can see that a few may get a pleasant surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 minute ago, Chris K said:

Funny how this feels like some sort of weak practice run for later in the season and into Summer. :D Not expecting anything here but you can see that a few may get a pleasant surprise.

I'll be honest, it's not as weak so far as I had been expecting! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Yes it is starting to look better through the Channel. I wouldn't be surprised if people around Newhaven aren't hearing thunder now. Rapid development around Portsmouth too, although no sferics here as yet.

 

thought they were doing well to be getting that in Wales then remembered that was Newport , of course through the channcel should have gave me a clue

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Just now, Harry said:

I'll be honest, it's not as weak so far as I had been expecting! 

Yes I admit there is more activity than I was expecting :)

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

We have landfall around Newhaven. I am hoping something may get as far inland as here... you never know with the speed they are travelling and the abundance of deep layer shear.

Strike north of Havant too.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Yes,i too thought that they are livelier than first thought,and they are making it across the channel,must be due to higher sst's than usual:)

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,i too thought that they are livelier than first thought,and they are making it across the channel,must be due to higher sst's than usual:)

I think it is more because they are elevated and so not affected by the sea. That would also explain there speed despite very little wind to blow them along.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, Supacell said:

I think it is more because they are elevated and so not affected by the sea. That would also explain there speed despite very little wind to blow them along.

True Supa,but will help a tincey wincey bit:D

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A strike NW of Petersfield now.

that storm east of cherbourg has died off now:(,hoping it picks back up.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Just had a mid level shower here - in fact still raining. Light and altogether rather meh!

Couple more strikes near Petersfield and the Newhaven/Lewes cell still producing.

A cell heading towards Hastings still firing too.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Yes, ignition to my SSW recently but it's died out now. Looks like Newhaven is getting wrecked.

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