Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Lots of cloud cover unfortunately which I think isn't going to help the surface convection situation later on 

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lots of cloud cover unfortunately which I think isn't going to help the surface convection situation later on 

Most of this is mid level not surface based convection. I've noticed a lot of anaprop in the English Channel which is a good sign.

[alexisj9]

Sky is clear here, for most part. Mist is blowing in from the channel though, it's not thick though, just making the hills look hazy.

[Spikecollie]

21c, feeling humid and a nice build up of aCas and TCUs here in Limousin. I've mowed the lawn, put the mower away and I'm about to go out for a cloud spotting cycle ride. I think we'll have some good quality thunderstorms tonight. I hope you share some of them...

[William Grimsley]

We have ignition in the Bay of Biscay as well as some CB's firing up in NE France.

[Spikecollie]

Indeed, just checked before getting ready to go out on my bike. That's where our French storms are coming from for tonight! 

[Greeny]

Looking at GFS only, I do see what is meant by low risk, moderate to strong DLS is backing us over here in the east but there is some reasonable amounts of Convective inhibition too. We are also being backed by more moisture but again Mixed Layer CAPE (not SB CAPE) is very meagre. Lapse rates are not the steepest they could be either. I think a better chance for Williams neck of the woods in the morning as SBCAPE begins to build (note some convective inhibition showing) although it gets confined to offshore as the morning wears on and then the potential spreads out and makes its way Northeast. I'm thinking the far east and southeast could possibly miss out on Monday. Weak shear overall.

 

Edit: not an abundance of moisture either for Monday

Edited April 3, 2016 by Greenday

[William Grimsley]

15 minutes ago, Greenday said:

Looking at GFS only, I do see what is meant by low risk, moderate to strong DLS is backing us over here in the east but there is some reasonable amounts of Convective inhibition too. We are also being backed by more moisture but again Mixed Layer CAPE (not SB CAPE) is very meagre. Lapse rates are not the steepest they could be either. I think a better chance for Williams neck of the woods in the morning as SBCAPE begins to build (note some convective inhibition showing) although it gets confined to offshore as the morning wears on and then the potential spreads out and makes its way Northeast. I'm thinking the far east and southeast could possibly miss out on Monday. Weak shear overall.

 

Edit: not an abundance of moisture either for Monday

Yes, I would say you're correct there. When you mean "offshore" I presume you mean out over the English Channel as that would mean a better chance for coastal areas.

Anyway, we have some hazy sunshine here with a little bit of Altocumulus cloud floating about but nothing much at this point in time.

Edited April 3, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Harry]

Increasingly mackerel-ised Sky round here at mid to upper levels. Nothing else of note to report.

[William Grimsley]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Increasingly mackerel-ised Sky round here at mid to upper levels. Nothing else of note to report.

Yeah, we've got a bit of that here and there, things are starting to liven up over the other side of the English Channel.

Edited April 3, 2016 by William Grimsley

[William Grimsley]

Ok, Altocumulus Castellanus cloud to our east now as well as big drops falling!

Edited April 3, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Mid-afternoon and we haven't had one flash yet anywhere... So I'm not holding out great hope for anything.

Here's to nice surprises later on then!

[William Grimsley]

@alexisj9, what are they clouds looking like to your south?

[alexisj9]

Can't see over the sea, have the western hights in the way, look kind of it's ac cas to my west. east still looks clear. Coming over the hill from the south are fluffy bits of Altocumulus at the moment.

Edited April 3, 2016 by alexisj9
corrected my east and west.

[Wilxy]

First elevated showers just developing now across north france and near channel islands pushing North Northeast, so I would say most of the thundery showers will stay east of that area of rain over Cornwall and Devon. Hampshire East looks a good bet right now.

Edited April 3, 2016 by tomjwlx

[William Grimsley]

4 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

First elevated showers just developing now across north france and near channel islands pushing North Northeast, so I would say most of the thundery showers will stay east of that area of rain over Cornwall and Devon.

Probably, but to say the largest thunderstorm is west of that band, then maybe not...

Edited April 3, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Gordon Webb]

11 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

First elevated showers just developing now across north france and near channel islands pushing North Northeast, so I would say most of the thundery showers will stay east of that area of rain over Cornwall and Devon. Hampshire East looks a good bet right now.

it does seem to tie in with the forecast here

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

I think for most tomorrow will be a better bet

[William Grimsley]

Just now, Gordon Webb said:

it does seem to tie in with the forecast here

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

I think for most tomorrow will be a better bet

Welcome back, Gordon! How are you?

[Harry]

Heavy convective precipitation is not modelled for another couple of hours yet. UKMO for example (using the MetO website precip projections) does not have the convective heavy precip breaking out until 18-19z anyway.

Also I would guard against too much excitement when there is any initial sparks - I think sporadic would be the theme of the evening rather than boisterous cells

Edited April 3, 2016 by Harry

[Gordon Webb]

3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Welcome back, Gordon! How are you?

I'm fine and thanks for the welcome back

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Heavy convective precipitation is not modelled for another couple of hours yet. UKMO for example (using the MetO website precip projections) does not have the convective heavy precip breaking out until 18-19z anyway.

Also I would guard against too much excitement when there is any initial sparks - I think sporadic would be the theme of the evening rather than boisterous cells

I agree with this but at least its some interest first of the spring  should be fun to track either way.

3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

it does seem to tie in with the forecast here

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

I think for most tomorrow will be a better bet

Yes and the confidence was always much lower for Devon and Cornwall perhaps thinking the band currently there might had produced something.

[A.J]

first lightning strikes detected just off the French coast east of Normandy

[Harry]

Quite surprised by how many strikes there have been in a short space of time. Game on....

[Spikecollie]

First strikes starting to appear here in Limousin to my  south west. Just in from a glorious t-shirt cycle ride. The cloud formations were amazing from the top of the hills - 467m ASL. I'm knackered from a morning of mowing and my ride. Have just been sitting in the garden with a cup of lemon tea it's still 21c! This could be an interesting evening. I'll try and stay connected...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Was not expecting the party to start yet...