Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Speedway Slider]

Not sure if it was a dream, but did the East Midlands (Leicester) have any thunder in the early hours today? Around 4.30-7.30 am? Sort of woke to something, but never fully regained consciousness if you know what I mean?

[ChezWeather]

Still some fairly strong radar returns, lets hope it can survive! 

[The PIT]

lightning died out in the northern section so no lightning from this one for us. I'll be interesting too see what rainfall we get.

[Mokidugway]

Odd sferic in the Irish Sea ,but mainly heavy rain .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sudden very gusty winds here I would say easily 40-45mph very strange it's quite ahead of the squall line to

[matty40s]

Wow,  that is seriously  heavy.

Rain with hail and wind being forced though in Kenilworth.

[ChezWeather]

A few strikes picked up over the Peak District 

[The PIT]

Some echoes to the north of us of course nothing here just started to rain. Surprised by the lack of wind. Shouldn't last long though.

[The PIT]

Bit more active now chucking it down and a bit of a breeze behind it.

[Rain123]

Few strikes of Isle of Wight!

Edited December 31, 2015 by Rain123

[The PIT]

Nearly over now Max gust 41 mph and 3.2mm of rain from it so far.

[toggerob]

Didn't hear any thunder at my location, however there was small hail pellets at the core of the trough with some heavy rain for a time. The cloud base dropped significantly also.

[ZONE 51]

Radar map 1530hrs:

On this active front some outbreaks of lightning/thunder, very heavy rain, hail, sleet and snowfall risk, gusty 40-50mph gust of wind (on and also  around the front), also some active showers after the front too, as seen also on the radar here. Turning cold even very cold feeling.

(Image 2 parts joined)

 

(front moving from the west to the east)

 

Radar image used: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Edited December 31, 2015 by ZONE 51

[The PIT]

You can rule out Snow on the front and lightning has died out. Heavy rain, some hail gusty winds yes.

[ChezWeather]

It really intensified to the south of here as it passed over 

[Rain123]

Got two distant flashes!

[The PIT]

I suspect the band over wales will miss us but you never know.

[ZONE 51]

Arrived here in Stanwell (next to Heathrow AP south side) .. rain becoming very heavy some very strong winds be getting up soon

[Rain123]

Hmm, some small hail in that squall line. Pretty good for this time of year...

[mrchoosy]

2 flashes and rumble of thunder around 1430 ish in Yeovil, Somerset.

[ZONE 51]

NW/BBC/MO have mentioned the risk of thunder in the south UK, anytime is interesting for convective but it's January and is not really chatted about as much as when it's the usual convective seasonal months. Usually it's only a few rumbles anyway but there can be thunderstorms any month.

Looking at the GFS I see the lifted index is negative or yellow indicating an unstable air-mass after the rain fronts move through today, bringing heavy downpours of a convective nature later today, overnight and Monday particularly over the SW and South coast possibly moving inland at times. Low pressure is in charge today.

My barometer has dropped at least 5 mb since a few hours, it's heading left of the centre as the low heads up.

 

 

Just had a look around UKWW has chat on the potential. Estofex have some lightning risk SW UK.

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by ZONE 51
to add info

[Supacell]

Welcome to 2016 and a brand new year for our storm chances, lets hope we get some good ones. I am looking forward to spring when I can get out there and storm chase once more.

Clearly thunderstorms in the winter months are a rarity but they do happen and are frequently more likely across coastal areas. 

This brings me onto this week. Currently a strong set of occluded fronts are pushing NE through England and Wales before stalling across Eastern Scotland, bringing a risk of flooding here. Behind the second occlusion which is now crossing the Midlands the parent low pressure system is likely to generate heavy showers as lapse rates increase markedly. For this time of year the CAPE values being shown around the coastlines are fairly impressive.

CAPE and LI for midnight tonight and 12:00 tomorrow

              

TT index is often a good indication of storm strength. The TT values being shown here would indicate that thunderstorms would be severe, however with only limited shear and CAPE not that high I am not sure severe storms can be expected.

Lapse rates are impressive though

My thoughts are that heavy showers will push into Wales and the SW this morning and become heavier and more widespread across all southern areas this afternoon. Thunder is more likely around coastal areas but may get inland around say the Bristol channel. Tonight any showers inland will tend to lose their intensity but will continue to pepper the southern and western coasts with an ongoing risk of thunder.

Tomorrow there will be more showers from the word go in the SW/Wales and these will be pushing NE through England. Again the main thundery element will be around the coastal areas of Wales and the SW but I would not rule out the odd sferic anywhere in the UK south of the Midlands. ELT's will be around -30c to -40c around the coasts and briefly across most of Central and Southern England tomorrow and so hail and lightning is quite likely at times.

ELT's at midnight tonight and then 12 o'clock tomorrow

         

So it is certainly worth keeping an eye on. Estofex have indicated the southern and western coasts as a risk area for lightning but I think tonight into tomorrow looks better.  I do not anticipate any severe weather although with the recent flooding and the fact that the ground is saturated (even here in Derby everywhere is waterlogged) there is the risk of flooding where showers are coming in one after another.

There is the risk of further thundery episodes throughout the latter part of this week too.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Supacell

[Rain123]

Cheers supacell, you're forecasts are always in depth and very interesting! I will keep an eye out for any hail/lightning tomorrow.

[Condor Vitesse]

A few sferics showing up in the channel now

 

[Spikecollie]

I'll be watching out the window for convection clouds as I'm flying back to Limoges in an hour!