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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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I think it's time for a new thread as we leave summer behind and move into autumn. Looking at the radar and reading some of the posts in the old thread, it looks like autumn has already come in with a bit of a bang for parts of Merseyside and may also for one or two other parts, over the course of tonight and tomorrow..

 

Remember that this thread is only for UK storm and convective discussion. If you want to discuss the storm outlook for the rest of Europe, there is a thread for that:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83731-european-storm-convective-discussion/

 

Also, let's try and keep the moans and groans to the appropriate threads. There are two threads for you to choose, the "Where are my storms" and the "No storms club".

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/

 

Onwards with the discussion, and here's to a thundery autumn 2015! :)

 

Old thread here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83809-storm-convective-discussion-20th-august-2015-onwards/page-71

Edited by Thunderbolt_

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Probably not the place to post this but some amazing storms are circling Phoenix, Arizona where I am with work. Loads of lightning and so hot here! 2 hours of storms so far with the last hour having constant lightning, thunder and some heavy rain.

post-18410-0-59019000-1441075532_thumb.j

Edited by stainesbloke
  • Like 4

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Some very nice covection here with that heavy line of showers moving down, the actually line of showers I can see from here with huge tops almost looks like an anvil..

 

Some beefy showers today if you catch one could have some thunder in there..

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Lovely clear start after showers just before dawn, perfect visibility and, driving up the M5, could clearly see cbs to the west and northwest. Maybe September is going to bring the crisp convective days.

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I have my camcorder ready for any storms that may develop this afternoon and evening over my area. It is a low risk but Derby does look to be in the risk area.

 

The lapse rates across the northern half of the country look quite impressive but CAPE is weak.

 

post-2719-0-20892500-1441095339_thumb.pn  post-2719-0-73455900-1441095351_thumb.pn

 

Unfortunately the best deep layer shear is across the south and does not overlap the best of the CAPE and lapse rates, if there had been some crossover then stronger storms may have occurred, although the area across the North Midlands could just about see advantages of both.

 

post-2719-0-28001300-1441095369_thumb.pn

 

A number of troughs moving south in the northerly flow will likely enhance the showers.

 

What today will be is a day of sunshine and crisp convection with some beefy showers. To my eye there is the risk of some weak thunderstorms and this looks especially true for the late afternoon and evening period across Northern England and the North Midlands.

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sure I saw one solitary flash to west last night in the corner of my eye  :laugh: might have been from the showers over merseyside last night that were giving infrequent sferics apparently, 

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That line going through London now looks like this from the West of it.. Sunny here while 5 miles down the road at mums work it is pouring!

 

post-12648-0-74081400-1441098041_thumb.j

 

post-12648-0-12463000-1441098042_thumb.j

 

COOL! 

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Storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

 

Cool Pm showery flow in weak shear environment, so no severe weather likely, watch out for funnels or even brief/weak waterspouts around coastal areas though. 

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Torrential downpour here in south London atm, though no sferics from these cells crossing the capital and its environs. Looks like strongest instability will be Midlands/ E Anglia north.

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It seems that the Irish Sea is creating quite a few downpours for Merseyside and North Wales, this morning. As the day continues, these could intensify further as land-based convection really kicks off too.

 

post-21671-0-14850000-1441100790_thumb.p

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It seems that the Irish Sea is creating quite a few downpours for Merseyside and North Wales, this morning. As the day continues, these could intensify further as land-based convection really kicks off too.

 

attachicon.gifUntitled.png

 

Cooler wind over warmer waters?

 

I think I might be able to use the term "the rader looks pepper has been spilled all over it" today for the first time this year  :rofl:

Edited by Surrey

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Cooler wind over warmer waters?

 

Most likely. We have a pretty cool wind and the sea is more or less at it's warmest point in early September.

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Interesting map..

 

post-12648-0-83434200-1441101337_thumb.j

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Interesting map..

 

attachicon.gifwet.jpg

 

When you remember that 2 weeks ago Manchester had half it's annual August rainfall in just under 7 hours alone, it shows just how dry the rest of the month has been to be on-par (slightly below average) for the rest of the month just gone.

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Its a day to keep an eye on the radar isnt it. It sounds fairly promising for South Yorkshire this afternoon, and the clouds are looking good already, some big ones going up. Things developing nicely here atm:

 

post-19114-0-24114500-1441103924_thumb.j

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The showers are really going up across North West England now. One shower over south Cumbria is now starting to produce lightning too:

 

post-21671-0-05325000-1441105457_thumb.p

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Strikes to the west of Derby, if only they were moving W to E. As it is that shower will pass to my west. Plenty more showers to the north-west though and some are producing sferics. 

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That thundery shower to the south west of Manchester has just skimmed me by the tip of my teeth! No thunder heard here, yet, but there is a big patch of blue sky moving over now. That should help spice things up a bit more.

post-21671-0-92926600-1441108627_thumb.j

Edited by Thunderbolt_

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Other than the cell in South Cumbria the showers are pulsing up and back down very quickly. This is a storm chasers nightmare and over the years I have learnt I am better to just stay in one place and hope for the best than try and chase pulse storms. I am thinking wind convergence is probably playing a part across Cumbria as that cell is still going and now spreading into NW Lancashire.

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Strikes still kicking out over Cumbria/Lancashire.

I have warm sunshine but towering cauliflower clouds in every direction.

Welcome to April.

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Strikes to the west of Derby, if only they were moving W to E. As it is that shower will pass to my west. Plenty more showers to the north-west though and some are producing sferics. 

Around 11am I was driving (or perhaps I should say sailing) the roads through South Liverpool (Childwall, Woolton, Speke). The rain was intense and for a duration to start lifting manhole covers, as pointed out by my other half. I must say I need need 100% concentration on keeping to the road since kerbs were lost under the water !

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