eastern pacific Tropical Storm Kevin

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 14E has formed south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are at 30kts. The system is being sheared presently, with convection partially displaced from the centre. Shear could ease over the next day or so, allowing some modest intensification, but is then set to increase again on the northward track. Therefore, 14E is only forecast to become a mid-range tropical storm. It should dissipate west of Baja California in about 5 days time.

[Somerset Squall]

The depression has struggled over the last few days due to shear, but it has eased temporarily, allowing 14E to become Tropical Storm Kevin, with winds of 45kts. Some very deep convection has developed right over the centre. Kevin is running out of time to strengthen, as shear is set to rise on the northward track, and waters cool. NHC expect a peak of 50kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Kevin peaked at 55kts but is now being sheared apart. The LLC is decoupling from the MLC and the convection is dissipating. Remnant low status awaits.