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A tropical wave just off the coast of Africa has quickly organised into Tropical Storm Fred, with winds of 35kts. The storm has good banding features and deep central convection. Strengthening appears likely as shear is low and waters are warm. Fred is forecast to head northwestwards into a weakness in the ridge to the north, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge restrengthens. This puts the Cape Verde Islands in the firing line from Fred. Fred could be a hurricane as it moves through the islands, so a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch has been issued for the Cape Verdes.

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Unfortunately for Fred it will gain latitude which may be the death of it in a few days. While shear and speed are fine it will move into 26C seas and probable dry air.

The further west it gets, the more chance of surviving as waters warm again.

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Now at 50mph, forecast increased to hurricane strength.

Looking further ahead it's down to 45mph by day 5 due primarily to dry air and the cooler sea however if it survives past about 50W it should hit warming seas. Whether it does that is unclear right now.

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Some Fred factoids taken from the Sk2 board.

 

Fred is only the fourth TS to form at such an easterly point. 2009 Fred formed in a similar easterly position, also an El Nino year.  hxXUiLy.png

 

He will be only the third hurricane/TS to impact the Cape Verde islands    GEZZO2c.png

 

Nice presentation on microwave imagery.    23NijFC.png

 

Source of info and pics.

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117512&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

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Fred is now a hurricane. It'll be moving through the Cape Verde's at this strength, an unusual occurence. The impact therefore is likely to be pretty severe.

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Fred makes history......(as far as records we have).

 

.... he becomes a hurricane the furthest east of any known (on record) within the MDR at 22.5W! This beats the old record of 23.0 set in 1900 with storm #3:

 

Already reports of ground floor flooding in a hotel in Santa Maria.

 

Webcam. http://www.webcamgalore.com/EN/webcam/Cape-Verde/Sal/620.html

 

93LwtZi.jpg

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Indeed, the easternmost in the deep tropics. Only Vince became a hurricane further east, but that was in the high latitudes.

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Hoping everyone in the most beautiful Cape Verde islands is safe. A Tropical Storm brushed by there, although not a direct hit, in 2013 and killed many locals, destroyed buildings and ruined infrastructure. On many of the islands there are little to no medical facilities so they find it difficult to cope with these storms. So this sort of storm will be even more worrying to them. They are the most lovely, warm and welcoming people so I hope Fred leaves little trace.

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Aye. Sadly will be dead in 5 days before it can reach the warming waters after 50W.

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Fred will be declared dead at the next advisory unless it generates convection.

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Possible regeneration as it heads to the Azores..

 

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed
most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone
consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like
yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north
of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level
winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very
hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast
calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By
the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models
are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous
warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity
for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the
northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve
toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track
models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 21.5N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.9N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.3N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 30.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$
Forecaster Avila

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I read the report and there was that geeky part of me that wanted to say, 'actually, I think you'll find....'

 

For anyone that's interesting the Hurricane has caused a lot of damage over there, a lot of the baraccas have been badly damaged, but thankfully it seems no fatalities, unlike the Tropical strom that hit a few years back that killed quite a few people.

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